Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Jets vs. Bills

Both the Jets and Bills are in Super Bowl or Bust mindset, making this a uniquely high-stakes Week 1 finale against divisional rivals. Former Jets coach Rex Ryan said the 2023 Jets have more talent than any Jets roster previously, and he's probably right to say so. Ryan had the killer defense during his reign, but the difference between Mark Sanchez and Aaron Rodgers could very well be the difference between the Jets making or missing the Super Bowl. The Bills, of course, have no intention of letting any such things happen. In this sort-of road game the Bills are two-point favorites as of press time, with the over/under at 45.5 (down from 47.0).

QUARTERBACKS

It's exceedingly difficult to fade Josh Allen ($11400 DK, $17500 FD) on a showdown slate. That includes this one, even after the Jets defense dominated against Allen in both 2022 games. In those contests Allen completed just 34-of-61 attempts for 352 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The reason it's still difficult to fade Allen? He ran for 133 yards and three touchdowns between the two games. It's unlikely that Allen runs with quite as much success this time around, but it's also unlikely that his passing numbers repeat so poorly. With that said, he needs to play well and produce for that reason, because the Jets defense won't be making any mistakes to cut him slack.

Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $16000 FD), despite all the notoriety, is probably an easier fade than Allen. Rodgers was known for starting slowly even in Green Bay, even with same system for many years, so going to a new team with an entirely new group of players would if anything be a valid excuse for a slow start from Rodgers. That the Buffalo defense is good adds another complication for Rodgers' projection. It would be quite a statement from Rodgers and the Jets if they can unveil a high-flying passing attack in their first appearance, but maybe the four-time MVP has something left.

RUNNING BACKS

It should be wheels-up this year for James Cook ($8000 DK, $11000 FD), who gets the chance to prove himself as starter this year after playing behind Devin Singletary for most of last year. To make his starting debut against his own brother adds an interesting narrative wrinkle to it all. Cook should see almost every passing-down snap the Bills play and could see a hefty target volume with that – it's a small sample but he drew five targets on his 36 snaps against the Jets last year, and while it probably isn't easy to generate running back receiving yardage against the Jets it probably is easier than trying to run on them. If the Bills struggle to run as much as most teams do against the Jets then it would be bad news for Damien Harris ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) and Latavius Murray ($1000 DK, $6000 FD), both of whom are likely to be limited to rushing subpackages in the Bills offense this year.

James and Dalvin Cook ($7800 DK, $12000 FD) have a Sibling Rivalry narrative this year, made that much more tense by the maxed-out ambitions of both teams. Of the two Cook brothers it's unquestionably Dalvin who has the easier matchup. The Bills defense is good, but it's at least one tier away from the Jets. Moreover, it has generally been easier to run against the Bills than pass against them. Dalvin is likely slowing down somewhat at this point, but he has no excuse for poor returns.

If there's a valid excuse for Dalvin disappointing it would be the presence of Breece Hall ($8200 DK, $12500 FD), who is unquestionably the superior player between the two at this point in their respective careers. Hall will be active for sure, but what's less clear is how much he's able to play at this point in his recovery from last year's ACL tear. It will be interesting to watch how patient the Jets can be with Dalvin, given the temptation of going to Hall if Dalvin sputters.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Garrett Wilson ($10400 DK, $13500 FD) is a worthwhile receiver consideration even if you're not picking Rodgers, because Wilson has the ability to claim a disproportionate percentage of whatever the Jets' overall passing production might be. Wilson is the only Jets receiver capable of (somewhat easily) beating any of the Bills' corners, including Tre'Davious White. With that said, Rodgers is more familiar with Allen Lazard ($6400 DK, $10000 FD), who's often a tough fade on showdown slates due to his ability to produce without getting especially open. Lazard can make plays even without 'beating' the corner especially because he's a great target in traffic down the seam off playaction. If there's a tight-window throw to make in the middle of the defense it might be Lazard who presents most reliably. Mecole Hardman ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) is an interesting big play threat and one the Jets would be foolish to not prioritize over Randall Cobb ($3400 DK, $7500 FD), despite the latter apparently serving the dual role as wide receiver and Rodgers' caddie. If not Hardman or Cobb, the third-leading route runner for the Jets might be Tyler Conklin ($4800 DK, $8000 FD), though the Bills mostly shut him down in 2022. C.J. Uzomah ($800 DK, $6000 FD) should also play a good number of snaps, but his tasks tend to pertain to blocking more than receiving.

Stefon Diggs ($10600 DK, $14500 FD) is expensive but for a good reason – he's obviously elite by any account, and in the two games against the Jets last year he produced 36.9 percent of Buffalo's receiving yardage. The problem was that Allen only threw for 352 yards between the two games. If Allen had thrown for 500 yards, then at the previously mentioned share percentage Diggs would produce 185 receiving yards in the two games instead of 130. Gabe Davis ($7200 DK, $11500 FD) might be able to make a play against smaller corners like D.J. Reed or Michael Carter, but his routes generally take some time to develop and the Jets pass rush is unlikely to give Allen much time. Deonte Harty ($200 DK, $5500 FD) is a near must-play as the likely WR3 for the Bills. Harty is an immense big-play threat and can draw targets at a rapid per-snap rate. Dalton Kincaid ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) is the other candidate to be the third-leading route runner for the Bills, though Dawson Knox ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) is likely to play more snaps. Khalil Shakir ($2400 DK, $7500 FD), Trent Sherfield ($200 DK, $6500 FD) and even Quintin Morris ($200 DK, $5000 FD) are also candidates to make a play or two.

KICKERS

Tyler Bass ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the league's better kickers, but for fantasy purposes he's sometimes a little underwhelming. Nine of his 27 field goal conversions occurred in two games last year, resulting in Bass scoring 8.0 or fewer fantasy points in nine of his 17 games last year. That includes just one field goal and four PATs made against the Jets in two games. Bass is due for some good luck against the Jets if anything, but it's not obvious why this is the opponent against which one's luck might improve.

Greg Zuerlein ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) is less accurate than Bass but possesses more range, allowing his team to attempt field goals in cases where the Bills might need to punt. There's a real case to make against Zuerlein for his inconsistency – he has failed to convert 83.0 percent of his field goal attempts or more since 2018 – but for upside specifically he seems to outrank Bass.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Though there are few things more nauseating for your fantasy defense than facing Josh Allen, the Jets ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) still offer conventional appeal as the rare defense potentially capable of getting the better of Allen. Although Allen ran wild on the Jets they still held the Bills to 37 points over two games. The Bills made ostensible improvements on offense, drafting Dalton Kincaid and signing Deonte Harty, so we'll see how much those two additions can change a formula that clearly wasn't working for the Bills in 2022.

The Bills ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) offer some conventional appeal as the favored team, and they certainly have a variety of good players who can make standout plays in this game. In terms of fantasy upside, though, the opportunity here seems elusive. Perhaps the Bills hold the Jets to a low point total – Aaron Rodgers might start slowly in his first game with a new team – but even at his lowest points Rodgers tends to go to great extents to avoid turnovers. The Bills lack a killer pass rush to pile up sacks to offset a lack of turnovers.