Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Carolina vs. New Orleans

The stakes for Monday's game between the Saints and Panthers don't seem especially high, but the divisional contest has a surprisingly close spread (Saints favored by just 3.0) given how the two teams respectively looked in Week 1. The Saints go into this road contest with ambitions of winning the NFC South division title, whereas the 0-1 Panthers are just hoping to make it through the year without damaging rookie first overall pick Bryce Young, who had a difficult Week 1 against Atlanta. The over/under is set at a modest 39.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Derek Carr ($10400 DK, $16000 FD) was up-and-down in Week 1 but mostly did a decent job, which is all he really needs to do with pass catchers as good as what the Saints have. The Saints receivers again have a clear advantage in their defensive matchup this week, and that benefit should extend to Carr if he doesn't blow it. The Panthers corners would have been overmatched anyway, yet the absence of CB1 Jaycee Horn leaves them even more vulnerable. The Saints pass blocking is a question at best, and Carr could have a valid excuse there if things go badly, but there's no obvious reason why Carr should struggle here. Taysom Hill ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) remains a threat to steal usage, however, especially close to the goal line.

Bryce Young ($9600 DK, $14500 FD) struggled quite a bit in Week 1, completing just 20 of 38 pass attempts for 146 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Although the Atlanta defense is likely improved from previous years, those still aren't the numbers you want to see. It was a road game, however, and a loud road environment probably isn't a fair setting to judge Young, certainly not in any conclusive sense. He'll need to keep it together against the Saints, however, as they have one of the league's more toolsy cornerback rotations and a solid front-seven that rarely shows cracks. The New Orleans pass rush probably isn't as intimidating as it might have appeared in Week 1, however – those three sacks and 10 quarterback hits were just as much the work of the Tennessee offensive line as it was the Saints pass rush.

RUNNING BACKS

With Alvin Kamara suspended until Week 4 Jamaal Williams ($8800 DK, $14000 FD) will again serve as the lead running back for the Saints, and potentially in a workhorse role. Rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) might be active after sitting out Week 1 with a hamstring issue, and if so he should serve as the RB2 behind Williams. It would be surprising if the Saints gave Miller a great deal of work in his first NFL game, especially in one returning from injury. If not Miller, then Tony Jones might get called up to play as Williams' backup (seven snaps in Week 1).

Miles Sanders ($8600 DK, $13500 FD) was busy in Week 1 and will be again in this game. The Panthers want to give Young cover by keeping his pass attempt volume contained and his pass attempts occurring outside of down/distance scenarios of x-and-10 or more yards. Even if the Saints play a tough brand of run defense, the Panthers should remain committed to Sanders. Even if the Saints pull away on the scoreboard, Sanders should see checkdown opportunities after drawing six targets in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard ($5000 DK, $10000 FD) should get most or all of what Sanders doesn't. Raheem Blackshear ($200 DK, $5500 FD) didn't play on offense in Week 1 but he might serve as Carolina's main kick returner.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Chris Olave ($11400 DK, $15500 FD) is one of the very best receivers in the league and doesn't need any help, so it's bad news for the Panthers that they lost top corner Jaycee Horn in Week 1. That's especially true given that the other Saints pass catchers are dangerous, too – Michael Thomas ($8400 DK, $12500 FD) and Rashid Shaheed ($7000 DK, $13000 FD) both looked good in Week 1, and if the Panthers sell out to stop Olave they might not find the results any better for their effort. Dealing with those three and then Juwan Johnson ($5800 DK, $7500 FD) is a tough assignment for any defense, and Carolina certainly isn't among the best. Foster Moreau ($200 DK, $6000 FD) should also play a starter-like snap count at tight end, though his responsibilities entail fewer pass-catching opportunities than what Johnson is likely to see in a given game.

DJ Chark ($6400 DK, $8000 FD) is the best big-play threat among the Panthers receivers, but if the Saints reach the same conclusion they might try to erase Chark with Marshon Lattimore, who can probably see it through. All three of the Saints' starting corners are big and fast, so in a way they all match and threaten to neutralize Chark's greatest strengths, which are his height and speed. Adam Thielen ($6600 DK, $9500 FD) is slower but steadier, and he might get the most favorable matchup among the Carolina receivers. If Lattimore neutralizes Chark it leaves more slack for Thielen to take, which he might be able to against Alontae Taylor – a talented corner but one playing the slot for the first time this year. Jonathan Mingo ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) and Terrace Marshall ($1400 DK, $7500 FD) seem likely to split the remaining snaps and targets on some unspecified basis. Hayden Hurst ($6200 DK, $8000 FD) caught five passes in Week 1 and might continue to serve as a security blanket for Young. Tommy Tremble ($800 DK, $5000 FD), Ian Thomas ($200 DK, $5000 FD) and Giovanni Ricci ($200 DK, $5000 FD) also log snaps at tight end, though without much pass-catching activity most of the time.

KICKERS

Blake Grupe ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is the conventionally-favored kicker in this game since he plays for the favored team, but the undrafted rookie remains unproven for his own part. He certainly got the job done in Week 1, making his one PAT while making three of three field goals, including a 52-yard kick to tie the game in the third quarter. Grupe was a bit scattershot in his collegiate career, however, and now we wait to see how he holds up as the sample size increases. He produced 12.0 fantasy points in his NFL debut.

Eddy Piniero ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is more accurate than rangy, though he is quite accurate at least. If the Panthers get within 50-yard range, Piniero should be able to make the kick. The opportunity level is more difficult to predict, especially if the Panthers fall behind early and feel the need to consider two-point and fourth-down conversions over kick attempts for Piniero. He went over double-digit fantasy points in eight of 17 games last year, and 12 or more points six times.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Carolina DST ($3400 DK, $9000 FD)does not have many things going for it conventionally. It helps that they're at home and they do have a few playmakers, namely pass rusher Brian Burns, but they're also without CB1 Jaycee Horn and are charged with the burden of carrying a team with a weak offense and rookie quarterback. Derek Carr is far from infallible and the Saints offensive line is dubious at best, so getting to Carr is probably the best way for the Panthers to compete in this game. They're otherwise at risk of spending long stretches on the field, however, and potentially short fields if the Carolina offense continues to struggle.

Road favorites generally aren't as reliable as home favorites, but the New Orleans DST ($5600 DK, $9000 FD) still looks good for this game. The Panthers are at a challenging point in their rebuilding effort, and Young likely won't be as good right now as he will be two months from now, let alone a year or two. Young could end up a good quarterback and still be vulnerable right now. The Falcons gave him trouble in Week 1, and the Saints defense is likely a tier or more better. The Carolina route runners generally don't match up well with the New Orleans corners, and Dennis Allen is probably one of the league's better defensive coaches, even if unimpressive for a head coach.