Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bills vs. Patriots

Preseason schedule watchers surely looked at a Week 16 matchup between the Bills and Patriots and figured this game would decide who wins the AFC East. However, that's not the case, as the 11-3 Bills have already won the division and the 6-8 Patriots have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. 

Winners of seven of its last eight, Buffalo is a 7.0-point road favorite against New England, which has dropped three of its last five, including each of its last two, in a game with a 46.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The first game between these two was an ugly 24-21 Bills win in Week 8, and given where the two teams are, there figures to be plenty of Bills stacks, making contrarian players put their faith in Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick.

QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen ($12,600 DK, $16,500 FD) has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks this season, as his 38 total touchdowns (30 passing and eight rushing) are more than all but Aaron Rodgers (43) and Tom Brady (39), though that includes Brady's Week 16 game. Additionally, only four quarterbacks have thrown for more than his 4,000 passing yards, a mark he's gotten to thanks to at least 359 yards in two of his last three games. He's been a touchdown machine, throwing for four in Week 13 against San Francisco, two in Week 14 and two more plus two rushing touchdowns in Week 15.

His worst game of the season actually came against the Patriots in Week 8 when he completed 11-of-18 passes for 154 yards and no touchdowns, though he rushed for 23 yards and a score, and they've continued to be solid, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They've been particularly strong lately, allowing fewer than 210 passing yards in four consecutive games, a span that included just one passing touchdown allowed. Of course, we can't ignore they gave up three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in the last two games, especially given Allen's ability to score with his legs, but it's certainly not a cupcake matchup.

The Bills defense hasn't been nearly as good, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, though its allowed fewer than 190 passing yards in each of its last two games. Cam Newton ($9,000 DK, $15,000 FD) wasn't great in the first game against the Bills, completing 15-of-25 passes for 174 yards, but he also rushed nine times for 54 yards and a touchdown. It was the fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to a quarterback by the Bills this season, and it's tough to be optimistic about him since there continues to be talk that backup Jarrett Stidham could play at some point. Stidham came on for Newton in Weeks 13 and 14, and given that Newton isn't expected to be back in New England next year, there are certainly reasons for Stidham to get more game reps.

Even though there are some people who try to roster backup quarterbacks in single-game slates, there continues to be significantly more risk than potential reward with a move like that, especially in this game where the Patriots aren't expected to produce much. Newton's popularity will still be high because the Patriots' offense doesn't have a ton of viable options, but from a captain/MVP standpoint he's likely to be mostly overlooked given the excitement around the Bills, and particularly Allen, who could be the most popular player on the slate, including as captain/MVP despite a high salary on both sites.

RUNNING BACKS

With Damien Harris ($8,400 DK, $12,500 FD) questionable to play because of the ankle injury that held him out last week, Sony Michel ($7,000 DK, $10,000 FD) could be the lead back against a Bills defense that held running backs to fewer than 100 yards in four of its last six games. The difficulty with Michel is that he won't get any meaningful receiving work because James White ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD), who is third on the team in targets (52), receptions (42) and receiving yards (321), gets those opportunities.

With the possibility that the Patriots will be behind, White theoretically makes sense because they might have to pass more, but that's been the case a lot this season and there's really no huge upside to that situation. Michel is a huge leverage play against the Bills' offense and Newton, who only trails Harris in rushing attempts and rushing yards while accounting for 11 of their 19 rushing scores this season.

The Patriots' backfield situation looks friendlier than the Bills' because we have almost an even split in terms of usage. Here's Jerry Donabedian's breakdown from last week's game against Denver, which they won 48-19:

Bills

	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Devin Singletary	53%	8	3	7.9%	23	0.56	8-68-1 — 3-16-0
Zack Moss	47%	13	0	0.0%	12	0.29	13-81-0 — 0-0-0

• Moss was benched for most of Buffalo's Week 13 game after a botched hand-off early in the game, but he's since bounced back to take a team-high 13 carries in back-to-back games.
• Singletary scored his touchdown from 51 yards with less than two minutes remaining in the blowout. The Bills had a third running back active for the game, but Taiwan Jones played only one snap. Moss got seven carries in the fourth quarter, while Singletary took three.
• The workload split was a little more in Singletary's favor before the garbage-time final quarter, though he was the one who padded his stats at the end. Through three quarters, Singletary had five carries and three targets on 56% of snaps, while Moss had six carries and zero targets on 44%.
• Moss played each of the three snaps inside the 5-yard line, including one carry. Since returning from an injury Week 6, the rookie has played 78% of Buffalo's snaps inside the five, tying Josh Allen with five carries. Meanwhile, Singletary has played only 22% and taken just one carry.
• Singletary played six of 12 snaps on third-and-medium/long. Moss played four, and Taiwan Jones got one.

Devin Singletary ($7,600 DK, $12,000 FD) and Zack Moss ($7,400 DK, $11,500 FD) would be solid options if one was the only guy in the backfield, but the split situation makes it very tough for cash games or low-entry GPPs where you're looking at a more optimal lineup construction. Given that, they're probably going to be overlooked for the most part, and neither will be popular captain/MVP picks, which probably applies to the Patriots' backfield as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Given that the Patriots have only had four instances of a player having more than 80 receiving yards in a game this season, there isn't likely to be a ton of optimism for their pass catchers. Jakobi Meyers ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD) has been the most relevant, including seven of 10 targets for 111 yards last week against Miami, giving him half of those four 80-plus receiving yard games. He leads New England in receptions (49) and receiving yards (616) while Damiere Byrd ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) leads them in targets (71) and air yards (822). No. 3 wideout N'Keal Harry ($3,200 DK, $8,000 FD) hasn't been much better, with fewer than four catches in each of the last four games. There is really just not much to get excited about when it comes to the Patriots pass catchers, and that's before considering the Bills have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

There are a few others who could run some routes and get lucky like Donte Moncrief ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who is questionable because of a thigh injury, Gunner Olszewski ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) or Matthew Slater ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), the latter two of whom almost exclusively play on special teams, but they just don't seem like viable punts even for those who make up to 150 lineups. Tight ends Dalton Keene ($1,400 DK, $5,000 FD) and Devin Asiasi ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD) haven't really done much in place of the injured Ryan Izzo (knee), but they're at least likely to run more routes.

The Bills' pass catchers present a much different situation, as Stefon Diggs ($11,000 DK, $15,500 FD) co-leads the NFL in receptions (111), is tied for second in targets (147) and is third in receiving yards (1,314), and he comes in with double-digit targets and at least 92 receiving yards in each of his last three games, which helps explain why he is the second-most expensive player on both sites. Pairing Allen and Diggs isn't the easiest, but it's far from impossible and the combination figures to be popular even against a Patriots defense that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. However, much of that included star cornerback Stephon Gilmore being on the field, but he was placed on injured reserve Wednesday and won't play. Diggs had a serviceable six catches on nine targets for 92 yards against the Patriots in Week 8, but expectations surely have to be higher now.

Those who don't want to spend so much on Diggs will surely look to Cole Beasley ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD), though there isn't a ton of salary savings given he's the third-most expensive player on DraftKings and fourth-most on FanDuel. While he's not as productive as Diggs, he still had more than 100 yards in three of his last five games and also had double-digit targets in each of his past three. However, given that they're fairly close in price on DraftKings, Beasley seems likely to be much less popular because a lot of people will just pay up for Diggs.

On potential wrench is that John Brown ($2,800 DK, $5,000 FD) could be activated from injured reserve after last playing in Week 10 because of an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. EST to activate him, and even then they don't necessarily have to play him against the Patriots. Brown was doing well just before the injury, catching eight of 11 targets for 99 yards in Week 9 against Seattle and then six of eight for 72 in Week 10 against Arizona. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Bills ease him back in if they activate him, and his availability likely puts a damper on Beasley's and maybe Diggs' upside. Given he's the minimum price on FanDuel, he seems like a worthwhile punt if he's active, but expectations surely have to be tempered.

If anything, it would be Gabriel Davis ($5,000 DK, $8,500 FD) who would take the biggest hit since he'd be pushed down to the fourth spot on the depth chart. Davis actually led the Bills' pass catchers in snap share last week, though he only managed two catches for 18 yards on five targets, his second consecutive game with fewer than 20 receiving yards. He's had some moments this season, including four touchdowns in five games from Week 9 to 14 (the Bills were off in Week 11), but the significant increase in work lately for Diggs and Beasley seems to have directly come from Davis' opportunities. Jerry Donabedian sums up Davis' situation pretty well if Brown returns: 

Davis, as you might expect, has the most drastic splits with/without Brown. The rookie is averaging 11.3 PPR points and 5.6 targets when Brown is out, but only 6.5 points and 2.4 targets when Brown plays.

We also can't forget about tight end Dawson Knox ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD), who has a touchdown in three of the last four games, but with a max of 36 yards in that span, which matched his season high, you really need him to continue his touchdown streak to make a meaningful impact.

Diggs seems like the most likely captain/MVP of any pass catcher in the game, with Davis kind of a fun pivot if Brown is inactive. Using any of the Patriots' wide receivers in the multiplier spots will be very against the grain, with the likeliest outcome that you'll finish below the cash line.

KICKERS

A relatively modest total should have fantasy players considering the kickers, especially the Bills' Tyler Bass ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD), who has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games. Given how well the Bills' offense has been playing, Bass has multiple field-goal attempts in six consecutive games. The Patriots' Nick Folk ($3,600 DK, $8,000 FD) hasn't been bad either, though with the Patriots' offensive struggles he doesn't figure to be that popular for fantasy players who can afford Bass.

There are plenty of players in their price ranges who have touchdown upside like Byrd and Harry on DraftKings plus White, Davis and Knox on FanDuel, but from a floor perspective the kickers are surely more reliable, which is why they'll be more popular targets in cash games and smaller-field GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Given they are decent favorites, it's no surprise that the Bills defense ($5,400) is much more expensive than the Patriots ($3,400), who haven't recovered a fumble since Week 4 and forced only one or zero turnovers in seven of their last eight games. Given that the Bills are expected to score points, the Patriots will need turnovers and sacks (they had eight in the last four games) to be relevant. Additionally, Allen doesn't get sacked that much and doesn't turn it over at a high rate either, so the biggest thing working in the Patriots defense's favor is that they won't be that popular.

The Bills defense hasn't been that great in terms of turnovers and sacks, but touchdowns in back-to-back games allowed it to score 12.0 points in each of the last two weeks. The Bills have a solid matchup against Newton, but the price is pretty high for a position that's just so highly variant and needs touchdowns to hit any kind of ceiling; of course, that's after they scored touchdowns in each of the last two and still only got as high as 12.0. The Bills defense shouldn't be popular either, though it will probably be on more rosters than the Patriots because people think it's better and that it matters.