This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Miami Dolphins 
at Los Angeles Chargers 
Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 1
The Miami Dolphins travel across the country to open up the 2023 season against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The game marks the third head-to-head meeting between two of the most prolific young quarterbacks in the league in Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
These teams most recently met at SoFi Stadium last December, with Los Angeles coming away with a 23-17 victory. While both squads still have much of the same core, it will be interesting to see how some of the newer faces on either side will impact this year's season-opening matchup.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds for Week 1
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Dolphins +136 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Chargers -154 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Point spread: Dolphins +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Chargers -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Totals: Over 50.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 51 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread for this game hasn't changed much from its opening position of Chargers -2.5 over two months ago. It's fair to say the sportsbooks see these teams with plenty of holdovers as evenly matched, with the spread of last year's game also set at three points. However, the 2022 favorite was Miami, who entered the contest at 8-5 after a solid start to the season. While the Fins are the underdogs this time around, it wouldn't be outlandish to see them steal a victory on the road to open the season.
The total has steadily increased from its opening figure of 49.5 points over two months ago. After peaking at 51.5 earlier this week, it seems to have settled at 51 with under 72 hours until kickoff. For comparison's sake, the projected total of last year's matchup was as high as 53.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks This Week
There's no foolproof way to predict how either team will look on Day 1 of the NFL season, but the incumbent talent on either side does afford us a good deal of confidence.
While the Chargers performed slightly better than the Dolphins during the just-completed preseason, that naturally doesn't exactly correlate to the regular season for a number of reasons. Perhaps the biggest in the case of the Dolphins is the fact Tagovailoa and the first-team offense played very limited snaps over Miami's three exhibitions, while Herbert did not take the field for a snap this summer.
Despite the key absences of Jeff Wilson (abdomen/finger) and Jalen Ramsey (knee), the Fins have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Fortunately for Miami, Jaylen Waddle has apparently recovered from his preseason oblique injury after returning to a full practice Thursday. Raheem Mostert and high-upside rookie De'Von Achane are also healthy, with the latter set to serve as Mostert's direct backup after overcoming his own recent shoulder injury.
Tyreek Hill is also ready to go after a career-best 119-1,710 line last season that he complemented with seven touchdowns. One noteworthy concern for Miami is the absence of left tackle Terron Armstead, who'll miss the game with a leg injury. However, given Tagovailoa is left-handed, he at least won't be missing his blindside protector.
Despite lacking a talent as explosive as Hill, the Chargers are certainly a force to be reckoned with considering Herbert will once again lean on the Big Three of Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Los Angeles' defense did cause Mike McDaniel's offense to struggle for much of last season's meeting, and Herbert and his offense comfortably controlled the game for its entirety despite a solid Miami defense.
Yet, we could be in store for a much different game flow in Sunday's game. The fact the Dolphins have had months to gameplan this time around and everyone's legs are much fresher is going to make a difference, and I see a higher-scoring game with Miami covering well within the realm of possibilities.
Dolphins at Chargers Best Bets: Dolphins +3 (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
Dolphins 28, Chargers 27
Oddsmakers see these teams as separated by a field goal, and I think this game could be even closer than that already-narrow margin.
Week 1's are known to be unpredictable if nothing else, and the explosive talent on either team in this game raises the potential for volatility. When two teams so evenly matched meet up, one or two plays often make all the difference. This contest should remain fairly close throughout, but I feel that Miami has higher big-play potential through the air to squeeze out an upset win as a result.
