IDP Analysis: Dynamite Wilson

RISING

Quinnen Williams, DT, NYJ

Williams arrived to the NFL with high expectations as the third overall pick in the 2019 draft, and in recent weeks he's shown strong indications of a star-level emergence. Still just 22 for a couple weeks, Williams finished his rookie year with 28 tackles and 2.5 sacks on 521 snaps but has broken into a new threshold of production in 2020. At 6-3, 303 with a 4.83-second 40, Williams is supremely explosive for a player of his frame and it appears that his skill set is beginning to develop and catch up with his rare tool set. Williams is up to 41 tackles and 5.0 sacks on 441 snaps in 2020, meaning he has doubled his rookie year sack total on 80 fewer snaps. He's also played more than 50 snaps each of the last two games, meaning he's settling into a role that should yield at least 750 snaps per 16 games going forward, and potentially something closer to 900. If you take Williams' 2020 per-snap production and apply it to 800 snaps you get roughly 74 tackles and nine sacks – elite IDP production. He might be a top-15 IDP on the defensive line going forward.

 
Donovan Wilson, S, DAL

It's not often that you see a skinny safety who's also a feared pass rusher, but it seems like Wilson might be just that. A second-year sixth-round pick out of Texas A&M, Wilson's modest prospect pedigree arguably underplayed his talents. Wilson has overcome his 6-foot, 199-pound frame to post 51 tackles and 2.5 sacks in the last eight games, giving him the look of a triple-digit tackle source in the secondary over a full season. With three forced fumbles on 457 snaps, Wilson has the look of a general playmaker at this point and may well prove a DB1 in IDP leagues going forward.

Jeff Heath, S, LV

Heath looked doomed to a backup role after signing with Las Vegas in free agency this year, but incumbent starter Erik Harris has seemingly phased out of the Raiders defensive rotation, leaving Heath as the starting free safety opposite strong safety Johnathan Abram. Heath is unlikely to match Abrams' tackle production given the more coverage-oriented role Heath plays, but in the last two weeks Heath encouragingly has 13 tackles on 123 snaps, giving him 27 on 304 snaps to this point in the year. If he continues to play around 60 or more snaps per game going forward, then Heath would project for something like an 85-tackle pace per 16 games.

 
Alex Singleton, OLB, PHI

Singleton was already on the 'riser' list in recent weeks, but it's worth noting that his stock saw another slight increase in Week 12. Although Singleton's five tackles against the Seahawks were nothing special – certainly far short of the standard Singleton established with his 36 tackles in the three prior games – but he once again led the Eagles linebackers in snaps, logging 67 to T.J. Edwards' 49. Playing safely ahead of Edwards and Duke Riley (31 snaps) in the Eagles linebacker rotation, Singleton's playing time indicates that he'll remain in a three-down role even if Nate Gerry returns to the field in a three-down role. It seems safe to say 'full speed ahead' for Singleton's IDP investors.

 
Rasheem Green, DL, SEA

Although it's too early to add Green in shallower IDP formats, it's worth keeping an eye on him in such formats and it might even be worth adding him in some deeper IDP formats if your bench space is otherwise going to waste. A forgotten prospect in a Seattle front four generally regarded as one of the league's worst, Green's profile is suspiciously low for a 23-year-old, third-year former third-round pick who was precociously dominant at USC in college. Although he had only 36 tackles and five sacks to his name going into this year, it's actually impressive in itself that Green logged 764 NFL snaps at the age of 22. The upside here lies with the chance that the light suddenly goes on for Green – the fact that he's earned playing time at such a young age is an excuse for otherwise unremarkable production, and the fact that he was productive in college gives him a good chance at suddenly turning into a new player at a certain unspecified point in time and experience. Monday's win over Philadelphia might have marked a starting point – he played 39 snaps after playing 40 the prior week, and secured his first sack of the year as he works his way back from a Week 1 neck injury.

FALLING

Isaiah Simmons, LB, ARI

Sometimes playing well earns a player more playing time, but the Cardinals are taking a different approach with Simmons, the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. Although Simmons is comically talented and has posted hysterically strong production in the past month or so, the Cardinals opted to give Simmons just 16 snaps – which he turned into six tackles and a sack – while all of Jordan Hicks, De'Vondre Campbell, Haason Reddick and Markus Golden played more. Generational freak talent or not, Simmons won't be a foreseeable IDP option on a workload so light.

D.J. Reed, CB, SEA

Reed was a firecracker IDP option out of nowhere for Weeks 8 through 11, a span in which he totaled 33 tackles in four games, but his time as an easy tackle source might have reached its conclusion, at least until the Seahawks deal with injuries in the secondary again. Shaquill Griffin returned to the field against Philadelphia on Monday and sent Reed to the bench in doing so – Reed didn't play a single defensive snap against the Eagles as Griffin, Flowers and Ugo Amadi played all the cornerback snaps instead.

A.J. Klein, LB, BUF

Klein has done an excellent job lately for IDP investors and may well continue to do so if his playing time remains high, but there's a chance that Klein might find the bench soon due to the eventual return of incumbent starter Matt Milano, who's been on IR with a pectoral injury. Milano has been out for four weeks and is eligible to return, and when that happens Klein's role will change from three downs to close to zero. He should be good in all IDP formats if Milano should miss further time, however.