Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Updated on October 12, 2023 4:00PM EST

I'm a chronic overthinker for the most part but try to be more of a KISS guy (Keep It Simple Stupid, not the horrific band) when it comes to fantasy football. That's easier done with my own lineup decisions than the fantasy advice I write here on RotoWire, because I wouldn't provide any value if I simply took the layups and highlighted good players facing horrible defenses.

You're all capable of doing that on your own with minimal research or time expenditure. That's not to say I never take those lay-ups, but mostly I try to look through injury reports and individual matchups to find things that aren't obvious to people who have real jobs and can't spend hours per week on this stuff

Last week, one of my less-than-brilliant ideas was to recommend benching Jared Goff because WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) wasn't on track to play and I figured the Lions wouldn't throw many passes. The problem? QB fantasy scoring tends to be driven by efficiency much more so than volume*, and even with St. Brown unavailable the mean-kitty Lions had one of the larger implied totals of the week against their pathetic feline brethren from Carolina.

RotoWire reader @gdaebass called me out on the bad advice in the comments at the bottom of the article, but I doubled-down instead of bailing out even though I felt some internal hesitation (this tracks, if you know me personally). Goff, of course, needed only 28 pass attempts to reach four total TDs, continuing his track record of super-efficient play in Detroit's dome.

I still don't care much about the home/road splits to be honest — beyond the advantage for any QB playing indoors — but I shouldn't have ignored the betting line or downplayed Carolina's defensive incompetence, especially when our guy's argument made me pause and was stated before the game (rather than in frustration afterwards.. when that happens I just wonder why someone took the advice if it was so stupid).

I'm not really sure where I'm going with this, which is part of why I often don't write intros or just do something minimal (the other reasons are lethargy and a general distaste for article intros written by other fantasy analysts). I guess this was more of a self-audit than anything else, along with a shoutout to @gdaebass.

Anyway, I'm going to start writing intros even if it's only two paragraphs and has nothing to do with football. If I have nothing directly useful to say, I'll either do a football rant like this or write about food instead of football. My advice is that you don't read it, seeing as intros to fantasy football articles are mostly useless and annoying (case in point). But it'll be there if you want it, and if nothing else it's a good way for me to practice my writing while I'm getting paid.

Now, on to Week 6!

*I should probably have a citation here, but I couldn't find anything good despite reading stuff in the past, and it's something I know to be true just based on years and years of observation. I think DFS-focused analysis shifted the thinking more toward hunting for volume because it's so important in order for a team stack to reach its ceiling. But for dynasty or season-long lineups we care about floor just as much as ceiling most of the time, and usually we aren't also starting two of our QB's pass catchers.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Dak Prescott (vs. LAC) — 46% started

Start Over — Kirk Cousins (at CHI), Brock Purdy (at CLE), Jared Goff (at TB)

The Chargers yielded more than 20 fantasy points to each of the first three QBs they faced this year, before shutting down the Raiders' Aidan O'Connell in a Week 4 game that OLB Joey Bosa, S Derwin James and S Alohi Gilman missed with hamstring injuries. All three may be back after a bye, but their presence earlier this season didn't stop the Chargers from getting shredded by Tua Tagovailoa (466 yards, 3 TDs), Ryan Tannehill (246 and 2 total TD) and Kirk Cousins (367 and 3).

Prescott should be next, going full bounce-back Dak on Monday night after a primetime embarrassment in San Francisco on Sunday. This time he'll be at home and facing a much lesser defense, and it appears he'll have all five O-line starters healthy again.

Other Good Matchups: Tua Tagovailoa (vs. CAR), Matthew Stafford (vs. ARI), Desmond Ridder (vs. WAS)

Running Backs 👍

James Cook (vs. NYG) — 78% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (at LV), Brian Robinson (at ATL)

The Jags held Cook to minus-four rushing yards on five carries last week, resulting in his first game this season with single-digit PPR points. He's one of the lesser lead backs in the league but has nonetheless finished in the range of 59-to-62 percent snap share in four of five games, averaging 12.2 carries and 3.6 carries without facing much of a threat from plodding backups Latavius Murray and Damien Harris.

Now Cook has a perfect get-right game, with the Balls favored by double digits against a banged-up Giants team that's given up the sixth most fantasy points to RBs and fourth most yards per carry (5.3). That's enough to put Cook at the top of the list of struggling starters this week, though I wouldn't play him over a guy that's been consistently productive like Kyren Williams or Isiah Pacheco.

The Giants' long and painful injury report for today, featuring 14 players. 👇 pic.twitter.com/vzmrRYUqvb
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) October 11, 2023

Alexander Mattison (at CHI) — 68% started

Start Over — Dameon Pierce (vs. NO), Jonathan Taylor (at JAX)

The Bears have played much better of late, but it's been driven by the offense more than the defense and they've still allowed at least 18.3 PPR points to their opponent's backfield each week. Five RBs had their best game so far this season against Chicago, and Mattison might make it six if the Vikings emphasize their run game a little more in the absence of Justin Jefferson (IR - hamstring). Mattison's snap share did drop to 54 percent last week, but that was more about the Vikings running plays without a tailback than Cam Akers (28 percent snap share, seven touches) stealing a huge portion of the work.

Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. WAS), Tony Pollard (at LAC), Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson (IR - ribs) / Salvon Ahmed, Kyren Williams (vs. ARI), Alexander Mattison (at CHI)

Wide Receivers 👍

Michael Pittman (at JAX) — 70% started

Start Over — Garrett Wilson (vs. PHI), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. BAL), Adam Thielen (at MIA)

Pittman had his best game of the season Week 1 against Jacksonville (8-97-1) and his second-best game in Gardner Minshew's only start (9-77-0 Week 3 at Baltimore). He'll now face the Jaguars and their middling secondary again, and volume shouldn't be an issue given that he's accounted for 30.3 percent of the 79 targets from Minshew this year. Josh Downs also has a strong share of the Minsehw targets, 25.3 percent, while the rest of Indy's pass catchers have been complete non-factors.

Chris Godwin (vs. DET) — 46% started

Start Over — Drake London (vs. WAS), Jordan Addison (at CHI), Marquise Brown (at LAR)

Cornerbacks have been the weak point of Detroit's defense, and with Mike Evans (hamstring) still not practicing the Bucs likely need to lean on Godwin this week. He had his best game of the season right before the Week 4 bye, putting up 8-114-0 on 11 targets against New Orleans, and has a nice chance to see double-digit looks again in a matchup that looks favorable in terms of both overall pass volume and Godwin's portion of the Tampa passing game. If Evans is confirmed to be out, Godwin will safely land in my top 20 at WR for Week 6.

Other Good Matchups: DJ Moore & Darnell Mooney (vs. MIN), Calvin Ridley (vs. IND), Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua & Tutu Atwell (vs. ARI), CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (at LAC). Adam Thielen & DJ Chark (at MIA), Jordan Addison & K.J. Osborn (vs. CHI)

Kevin O'Connell on Jordan Addison:
"He was one of my favorite players I evaluated in the draft. ... Since then it's been positive after positive outside of driving a little fast one time. My expectation is we hit the gas with Jordan this weekend. No pun intended."
— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) October 11, 2023

Tight Ends 👍

Cole Kmet (vs. MIN) — 42% started

Start Over — Jake Ferguson (at LAC), Zach Ertz (at LAR), Logan Thomas (at ATL)

In terms of target volume, Kmet (29) surprisingly sits much closer to DJ Moore (34) than Darnell Mooney (16) while also ranking second on the Bears in every other major receiving category. The tight end's 2022 was fueled by touchdowns — seven on 69 targets — but this year's production is more encouraging given his current pace for 98.6 targets and continued impact in the red zone (three TDs).

Kmet's Week 6 opponent, Minnesota, has done a decent job defending TEs but played average-to-poor defense overall, ranking 24th in yards allowed per drive (32.9) and 24th in points allowed per drive (2.21) while forcing only three turnovers in five games. It's not quite as bad as those stats suggest given the QBs the Vikings have faced, but Kmet should still venture into TE1 range with a handful of targets per week looking like his new norm.

Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (vs. WAS), Jake Ferguson (at LAC), Zach Ertz (at LAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Jared Goff — 37% started

Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (at CHI), Matthew Stafford (vs. ARI)

It's Goff Week here at Exploiting the Matchups, with the star of our intro now getting a 'downgrade' blurb despite burning me big time last week. He'll be playing outdoors on the road this time, facing a defense with all 11 starters healthy coming out of a bye week (assuming S Ryan Neal clears concussion protocol after his full practice Wednesday). The Lions offense likely will be less healthy even if St. Brown returns, with RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) and G Jonah Jackson (ankle) both absent from practice to start the week. Plus, Tampa has given up the 10th fewest fantasy points to QBs despite facing three of the top 5 in scoring through four games (Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins).

Other Tough Matchups: C.J. Stroud (vs. NO), Russell Wilson (at KC), Deshaun Watson (shoulder, vs. SF),

Running Backs 👎

Brian Robinson (at ATL) — 51% started

Start Instead — Alexander Mattison (at CHI), Dameon Pierce (vs. NO)

Robinson is coming off his worst game of the year and now has a road matchup with an Atlanta defense that's given up the fewest fantasy points to RBs and only 3.8 YPC. The Falcons defense hasn't been dominant overall, by any means, but the line is an obvious strength thanks to veterans Grady Jarrett, Calais Campbell and David Onyemata (each of whom has at least 16 tackles and ranks Top 30 in PFF grade among interior D-linemen). No lead back has scored a TD or reached 100 rushing yards against Atlanta this year, and only Jahmyr Gibbs made it to 4.0 YPC (barely, he had a 17-80-0 rushing line with nearly one-third of the yardage coming on a single fourth-quarter carry).

Rachaad White (vs. DET) — 43% started

Start Instead — Jonathan Taylor (at JAX), Javonte Williams (at KC)

White might be the worst lead runner in the league right now and isn't especially likely to turn things around against a Detroit defense that's yet to allow 50 rushing yards to a running back. The Lions have given up the third fewest fantasy points to the position and rank third in yards allowed per carry (3.3), having held Isiah Pacheco to 8-23-0 and Bijan Robinson to 10-33-0. The only guy to have a decent fantasy day against Detroit was Kenneth Walker, who scored a pair of short TDs to make up for his 54 total yards. The Bucs probably need to lean on Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin to pull this one out.

Other Tough Matchups: Breece Hall (vs. PHI), Dameon Pierce (vs. NO), Miles Sanders (shoulder, at MIA), Jerome Ford (vs. SF), Gus Edwards (at TEN - London), Emari Demercado (at LAR)

"I don't know what my role is yet, so we'll see."
Arizona Cardinals rookie RB Emari Demercado says he would be excited if he received his first career start against the Rams, but nothing has been decided. #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/1ocjJ1h1rN
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) October 11, 2023

Wide Receivers 👎

Terry McLaurin (at ATL) — 57% started

Start Instead — Chris Godwin (vs. DET), Zay Flowers (at TEN)

Even McLaurin loyalists like myself have to be somewhat worried at this point, with Washington's offense under Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy currently sporting four players in the range of 14-to-18 percent target share (and none above that). On top of the frustratingly flat target distribution, McLaurin could see shadow coverage from Falcons CB A.J. Terrell, who held Calvin Ridley to a pair of catches a couple weeks ago (albeit with one being a TD on a blown coverage).

Jerry Jeudy (at KC) — 28% started

Start Instead — Michael Thomas (at HOU), Jakobi Meyers (vs. NE)

I still think Jeudy can have a decent year, especially if he's traded, but the matchup with Kansas City is tough for a couple of reasons. The first is that the Chiefs defense has simply been much better than the Broncos offense this year. The second is that Jeudy has spent more time in the slot than on the perimeter, which means he'll see a lot of CB Trent McDuffie on Thursday night. McDuffie has the third-best PFF grade among all corners, after ranking 16th as a rookie, and he's given up only 17-184-0 on 27 targets (6.8 YPT) into his coverage this year. Jeudy scored three TDs in a game against the Chiefs late last season but probably won't sniff the end zone Thursday night.

Other Tough Matchups: A.J. Brown (at NYJ), Chris Olave (at HOU), Brandon Aiyuk (at CLE), Amari Cooper (vs. SF), Courtland Sutton (at KC), Joshua Palmer (vs. DAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Dalton Schultz (vs. NO) — 19% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (face, vs. SF), Tyler Higbee (vs. ARI), Jonnu Smith (ankle, vs. WAS)

Schultz is coming off his two best games of the season, both including touchdowns, but probably won't keep it going against a Saints defense that's on track to allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends for a second straight year. It's at least partially a product of their personnel, as few teams have devoted more resources to safeties and off-ball linebackers the past few years.

Oldheads Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu are still playing well, and they've got S Marcus Maye and 2021 second-round LB Pete Werner helping to cover the middle of the field. Schultz might see some extra targets with WRs Robert Woods (ribs) and Tank Dell (concussion) on the injury report; just don't expect the former Cowboy to do much with his chances.