Exploiting the Matchups: Week 3 Start/Sit

September 15, 2019, henceforth known as the day the quarterbacks died. To be fair, Trevor Siemian lasted a day longer than the rest of them, but only because his team played Monday night. We now enter Week 3 with at least five teams starting a quarterback that didn't get the Week 1 assignment, potentially adding a sixth if Cam Newton's sprained foot doesn't improve in a hurry.

The glut of injuries lowers expectations for a bunch of wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs, though in one case the QB change might prove to be an upgrade (looking at you, Daniel Jones). This is a good time to remind everyone, once again, that our upgrades and downgrades are relative to what can be expected of the player in an average week, focusing on how value is impacted by the opponent. 

We're also making an effort to look beyond the obvious, rather than pointing out that it's a good idea to start players on teams with implied totals above 30. That said, it feels a little weird to go through the entire column without discussing the oddity of two NFL games that have spreads larger than 20 points.

My take on the two contests for fantasy purposes is what you'd expect — upgrade everyone on the Patriots and Cowboys; downgrade everyone on the Jets and Dolphins. Bill Belichick kept his starters in the game through the end of the Miami blowout, after doing the exact same thing last year during a 38-3 win over the Jets in Week 17. 

A similar situation for Dallas requires a look back to Week 6, when Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott stayed in the game until there were four minutes remaining in a 40-7 win over Jacksonville. Jason Garrett isn't as ruthless as Belichick, but I doubt he'll pull starters before the final 10 minutes.

Before we get into specific players, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups and determining player valuations each week:

• Jeff Erickson's weekly rankings
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades from Pro Football Focus
• Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Jameis Winston, TB vs. NYG

Winston gets the perfect matchup to rebound from a slow start, with Tampa holding the fourth-highest implied total (27.25) of Week 3 against a Giants team that's actually done a decent job defending the run. With B.J. Hill, Dalvin Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence forming a reasonably effective front in their 3-4 scheme, the Giants have limited running backs to 4.0 YPC while allowing quarterbacks to throw for 10.6 YPA. A Dak Prescott blowup somewhat distorts that equation, but Big Blue also made Josh Allen look good last weekend, as he committed no turnovers and had a completion percentage in the 60s for only the second time in his career. Look for Winston, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to attack rookie cornerback Deandre Baker, who ranks last in the league by a mile with 272 yards allowed in his coverage, per PFF.

• Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

Garoppolo bounced back from a sluggish 2019 debut during last week's romp in Cincinnati, producing 11.9 YPA and three TDs on just 25 attempts. Yes, it was the Bengals, but their pass defense might actually be better than the one Garoppolo will face back home this Sunday. It's not just that the Steelers have struggled; after all, that's expected to some extent against Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. The issue is how they've been beat, essentially handing out yards (and also touchdowns) with gaps in zone coverages. Minkah Fitzpatrick should help, but he can't be an instant solution for a problem that's plagued the Steelers for a few years now. In addition to yielding 9.0 YPA and six passing touchdowns in two weeks, Pittsburgh holds PFF's sixth-worst grade (45.1) for pass coverage, negating a pass-rush grade (80.0) that's second best. The Steelers' only chance here is if they can dominate rookie left tackle Justin Skule, who is filling in for an injured Joe Staley (leg).

• Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen, BUF vs. CIN; Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU; Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

RUNNING BACK

• Frank Gore, BUF vs. CIN

Devin Singletary's hamstring injury may create extra opportunity, but even if the rookie ends up playing, Gore is a clear favorite to lead the Bills in carries. Singletary was still in the game deep into the fourth quarter of Sunday's 28-14 win over the Giants, so the hamstring doesn't offer a full explanation for Gore's 21-6 advantage in touches. The 36-year-old even got more playing time than Singletary on pass plays, after the rookie dominated in that regard during the season opener.

Gore now lands in the mother of all matchups, facing a Cincinnati defense that just yielded double-digit fantasy points to three different San Francisco running backs. The Bengals have allowed the most points to RBs through two weeks, after yielding the second-most last season and the third-most the year before. I discussed their terrible linebackers in this same space last week, perhaps neglecting that the rest of the defense also is soft against the run. The Bengals haven't finished better than 20th in run-defense DVOA since 2015, and they currently hold PFF's worst team grade for tackling and fourth-worst grade for run defense.

• Mark Ingram, BAL at KC

I promise highlighting Ingram won't be a permanent feature of this column, but we should ride it out for one more week despite his disappointing stat line in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Cardinals. He had some promising indicators for future production, handling 58.4 percent of snaps and 71.4 percent of Baltimore's RB opportunities (carries+targets) — up from 32.9 percent and 36.8 percent in Week 1 against Miami. Ingram should stay relevant even if the Ravens have to play catch-up, as he's received a good chunk of the playing time on third downs, running 19 routes (compared to Justice Hill's nine) in Week 2.

The Ravens can also try to avoid that catch-up scenario if they find early success on the ground, facing a defense that's given up 5.9 YPC to running backs through two weeks after ranking 32nd for run-defense DVOA in both 2017 and 2018. The Chiefs allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs last season, despite winning 12 games while producing the best point differential (+144) in the AFC. 

• Derrick Henry, TEN at JAX

Henry's 99-yard run last season is probably the first thing that comes to mind when you think about the decline of Jacksonville's defense. The Jaguars actually bounced back to finish out the season with their collective heads held high, but they've opened 2019 allowing 228 rushing yards and 4.7 YPC to running backs. The best way to beat them is on the ground, which happens to fit perfectly with the Titans' desire to hide Marcus Mariota's numerous deficiencies. Plus, you know you want a piece of the action in the annual Titans-Jags TNF classic. #Duuuval #TitanUp

• Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson, SEA vs. NO; Darren Sproles, PHI vs. DET; Carlos Hyde, HOU at LAC

WIDE RECEIVER

• Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, ARZ vs. CAR

Fitzgerald and Kirk join Cincinnati's Tyler Boyd and John Ross as the only pairs of teammates with at least 20 targets apiece. Kliff Kingsbury's pass-heavy approach is a big part of that picture, with the Cardinals ranking second to only the Bengals in pass-play rate (75 percent), including 68 percent (sixth-highest) in the first three quarters of one-score games. The Cardinals rank second in overall pace (22.2 seconds per snap) and second in situation-neutral pace (27.5 seconds), with their 69 no-huddle snaps accounting for 21.4 percent of the league-wide total.

They also happen to have a Week 3 matchup against the one team that's moved at a faster pace (22.0 seconds per snap), though in Carolina's case it's largely been a product of frequent incompletions and playing from behind (the Panthers do rank sixth in situational-neutral pace). I guess what I'm trying to say is that this game should have a lot of snaps, setting up plentiful opportunities for Kirk and Fitzgerald in the slot against a defense that doesn't seem to have a clear nickelback between Javien Elliott, Rashaan Gaulden (groin) and Ross Cockrell.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. DEN

It may not seem like a lot, but Valdes-Scantling's 11 targets are four more than any other player on the Packers not named Davante Adams. The second-year pro has established himself as the clear No. 2 WR, playing 87 percent of snaps — compared to 44 percent for Geronimo Allison — in Sunday's 21-16 win over the Vikings. Valdes-Scantling has run 61 routes on Aaron Rodgers' 73 dropbacks, putting him not too far behind Adams (70) and well ahead of everyone else on the team (44 for Jimmy Graham, 40 for Allison).

MVS has the perfect opportunity for a breakout this week, facing a defense that puts Kareem Jackson in the slot and may use Chris Harris to shadow Davante Adams (PFF's shadow report shows that Harris matched up with Allen Robinson on 57.1 percent of routes last week). Even if Harris doesn't shadow, he usually plays at left cornerback and Adams has taken 62.6 percent of his outside snaps this season on that side of the field. MVS has taken 63.6 percent of his outside snaps to the left side of the offense, where the Broncos typically place their weak link — CB Isaac Yiadom. The 2018 third-round pick has given up 12 catches for 148 yards on 13 throws into his coverage this season, after yielding a 22-259-3 line on 34 passes last year.

• Will Fuller, HOU at LAC

Fuller failed to capitalize on a similar situation last week, with two drops contributing to a disappointing 4-40-0 receiving line on seven targets in a matchup against Jaguars cornerback Tre Herndon. With DeAndre Hopkins now taking on Casey Hayward after Jalen Ramsey got the best of the superstar wideout last week, Fuller has the relative advantage against Chargers cornerback Brandon Facyson, a second-year pro who has already allowed 10 catches for 126 yards and a TD on 12 passes into his coverage (per PFF). The Chargers' other cornerback is slot lord Desmond King, so the advantage truly lies with Fuller rather than Kenny Stills or Keke Coutee.

• Honorable Mentions: Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. NO; Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. OAK; Marquise Brown, BAL vs. KC; Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, CAR at ARZ; Marquise Goodwin, SF vs. PIT; Mike Williams, LAC vs. HOU; Randall Cobb, DAL vs. MIA; Sterling Shepard, NYG at TB

TIGHT END

• Greg Olsen, CAR at ARZ

Olsen has returned to fantasy relevance in a big way, ranking third among tight ends in targets (18), fourth in receiving yards (146) and t-7th in receptions (10). He's done this while catching passes from an injury-marred Cam Newton, whose sprained foot may hold him out of Sunday's game in Arizona. I'm not saying Kyle Allen would be an upgrade on the healthy version of Newton, but it's hard to see how the 23-year-old could be much worse than what we saw from Carolina's franchise QB the past two weeks — a 56.2 completion percentage (9.3 points below his 65.5 xCOMP%), 6.4 YPA, PFF's No. 31 grade out of 36 QBs.

Regardless of which player takes the snaps, Olsen gets the pleasure of facing a defense that's been skinned alive by tight ends to the tune of a 17-273-3 receiving line on 23 targets. Part of that is Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson being so talented, but other teams have faced good tight ends and only the Cardinals and Dolphins have allowed more than 164 yards to the position. Olsen also stands to benefit from elevated overall snap volume thanks to Arizona's no-huddle offense.

• Honorable mention: Austin Hooper, ATL at IND

KICKER 

• Matt Gay, TB vs. NYG

Last week, I said the kicker matchup wouldn't be a regular feature of this column. It wasn't the first time I've lied, and I'm guessing it won't be the last. Perhaps you've heard the old saying about trusting guys who admit they lie? Or maybe you've heard the one about trusting guys who recommend the Bucs' kicker for fantasy lineups? If not, I'll happily be your snake oil salesman, noting that Gay is the one of just two kickers below 50 percent ownership on Yahoo with an implied team total of 25.5 points or higher this week (27.25, 4th). The other is Minnesota's Dan Bailey, whose late-career struggles inspired the team to trade a fifth-round pick for the now-infamous Kaare Vedvik. I can't say I'm feeling Joey Slye levels of enthusiasm about this one, but Gay at least looks better than the other unowned kickers in leagues with 12 or more teams. (That said, grab Brett Maher over Gay if he's available.)

• Honorable mentions: Dan Bailey, MIN vs. OAK; Joey Slye, CAR at ARZ

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

The Eagles entered this season with arguably the best pass-catching depth in the league, but there's no way to truly be prepared for losing three key weapons within the span of an hour. With DeSean Jackson (abdomen), Alshon Jeffery (calf) and Dallas Goedert (calf) all looking more doubtful than questionable, the Eagles probably need to get creative and find more production from their three-headed backfield.

It almost worked out fine Sunday night in Atlanta, but Week 3 brings a tougher test against a Lions defense that limited Kyler Murray and Philip Rivers to a combined mark of 6.7 YPA the past two weeks. The late-game struggles against Murray in Week 1 don't look so bad after the rookie put up 349 yards at a clip of 8.7 YPA during a 23-17 loss in Baltimore on Sunday. The Lions won't be dominant on defense by any means, but they should be happy with the early results from adding DE Trey Flowers, DT Mike Daniels and slot corner Justin Coleman this past offseason. Coleman, in particular, has been impressive, allowing eight catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on 17 throws into his coverage.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Andy Dalton, CIN at BUF; Joe Flacco, DEN at GB; Case Keenum, WAS vs. CHI

RUNNING BACK

• Latavius Murray, NO at SEA

There's a line of thinking that Murray will get more work with the Saints forced to rely on their running game while Drew Brees recovers from thumb surgery. Maybe it works out that way, maybe not. Either way, Murray is a distant No. 2 in this backfield, and guys in his position either need touchdowns or receiving production to maintain fantasy value. Murray doesn't fit either bill, as he's drawn just four targets so far and no longer gets the extra TD upside that comes with playing behind Brees. 

Then there's the matter of Taysom Hill, who stole red-zone work from the rest of the offense even when Brees is healthy. Assuming Teddy Bridgewater is the starter — something Sean Payton hasn't committed to — it's a safe bet Hill will get even more work now that he'd be stealing from a backup instead of Brees. The icing on the cake? Seattle has limited running backs to 105 rushing yards and 3.8 YPC through two weeks, getting the best of both Joe Mixon and James Conner. The Seahawks hold PFF's No. 8 grade (74.4) against the run, presumably seeing some benefit in that area from their frequent use of a 4-3 base defense instead of nickel packages against three-wide formations.

• Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson, KC (vs. BAL)

I can't comment on the injuries with any certainty, but I will say this is a tough matchup on the ground for whichever player(s) ends up getting most of the carries. That's more of a concern for McCoy and Thompson that it is for Williams, considering the latter relies on receiving stats and short touchdowns rather than rushing yards. 

The Ravens have limited running backs to 18 carries for 28 yards, well on their way to a fourth consecutive season ranking top 10 in run-defense DVOA. In fact, the Ravens have finished lower than 12th just once — during their Super Bowl season — since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008. They hold PFF's No. 1 grade (90.4) for run defense and No. 6 grade for tackling (67.8), with edge rusher Pernell McPhee, safety Tony Jefferson and 345-pound defensive tackle Michael Pierce each ranking among the top 10 at their respective positions in run-defense grade. The Chiefs should take a hint from Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, who kept things competitive Week 2 in Baltimore with a 43:11 pass:rush ratio and 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs, OAK at MIN; Adrian Peterson, WAS vs. CHI; Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, DEN at GB

WIDE RECEIVER

• John Ross, CIN at BUF

Prayers up for the poor guys and gals who give into temptation and use Ross in their Week 3 lineups. Good men, even great men, will be left on benches to accommodate the two-week fluke. Sure, Ross leads all WRs in standard scoring. Just know that most of his success has come on big plays that involved a blatant mistake by at least one defender (see: here, here, here and definitely here). His speed is a factor in that equation; it just isn't enough to erase all other concerns, starting with a 22 percent target share that ranks 27th among wide receivers. PFF charges Ross with a league-high four drops, which helps explain why he's caught only 55 percent of his targets (36.2 percent last year) despite being handed some ridiculous gifts.

Even if Ross does prove himself a worthwhile fantasy starter long term, he'll get the white-out treatment Week 3 in Buffalo, spending much of the game doing battle with Tre'Davious White. The Bills' top corner has allowed a 54.9 percent completion rate and 7.3 YPT on passes into his coverage since he entered the league in 2017, playing a huge role in his team's overall success defending the pass (No. 12 DVOA in 2017, No. 2 in 2018). White has lined up at left cornerback for 89.9 percent of his snaps, and Ross has lined up to the QB's right on 68.7 percent of his outside snaps (47.5 percent overall).

• Jarvis Landry, CLE vs. LAR

We should probably start the discussion with Landry's disappointing performance to date — seven catches for 99 yards on 14 targets in matchups with the Titans and Jets. I don't think anyone was expecting huge target volume, but there was a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that Odell Beckham's presence would take defensive attention away from Landry while also allowing him to spend even more time in the slot. The second part at least has played out, with Landry taking 73.1 percent of his snaps inside, up from 63.0 percent his first season in Cleveland (per PFF).

The efficiency still hasn't been there, and it's not likely to make an appearance against Rams cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Nickell Robey-Coleman, the latter of whom plays inside and has been charged with just four receptions for 27 yards into his coverage this year (per PFF). It isn't just a short-term trend, as Robey-Coleman finished second in the league last season with 0.71 yards allowed per snap in slot coverage (per PFF). He was sixth (0.80) in 2017 and 10th (1.01) in 2016. Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Rashard Higgins (ankle) and Demetrius Harris all are better bets than Landry to benefit from David Njoku's absence, though Higgins and Harris still aren't recommended starts.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Tyrell Williams, OAK at MIN; Corey Davis, TEN at JAX; Geronimo Allison, GB vs. DEN; Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, NYJ at NE

TIGHT END

• Darren Waller, OAK at MIN

Man, I hate to do this. Waller has been fantastic, with his every-down role yielding 15 targets and 13 catches through two games. His 26 percent target share ranks sixth among tight ends, and his 120 snaps are fourth-most. The arrow still points up from a season-long perspective, but the Week 3 matchup warrants a downgrade from mid-range TE1 to low-range TE1, putting Waller closer to Vance McDonald and Greg Olsen than he is to Evan Engram and Mark Andrews. 

Oakland's implied total (17.5) is a red flag before we even consider how tough the Vikings have been on tight ends — they allowed the fewest points to the position in 2017 and the sixth-fewest in 2018. Austin Hooper went for 9-77-0 in a garbage-time-fueled performance Week 1, but Green Bay's Jimmy Graham took a goose egg last week. I'm not doubting Waller will get volume; I'm just worried he won't do much with it this week.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: T.J. Hockenson, DET at PHI