Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on December 24, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Brock Purdy (vs. DET) — 41% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (at MIN), Patrick Mahomes (at PIT), Justin Herbert (at NE)

Purdy's two worst games of the year, by far, occurred within the past four weeks, after he missed Week 12 with a shoulder injury. His other two games in that time went much better, featuring 300-plus passing yards and multiple touchdowns. A Monday night matchup with Detroit's injury-riddled defense sets the table for another big fantasy performance, with the 49ers being 3.5-point underdogs in a game with the largest over/under (51) of the week. That equates to an implied total of 23.75 for San Francisco, and the offense is more Purdy-centric than ever before after losing both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to season-ending injuries. I like Purdy's chances to throw for around 300 yards and multiple TDs again, even after losing LT Jaylon Moore and LG Aaron Banks to season-ending injuries Sunday.

Other Good Matchups: Jayden Daniels (vs. ATL), Baker Mayfield (vs. CAR), Bo Nix (at CIN), Anthony Richardson (at NYG), Mason Rudolph (at JAX), Bryce Young (at TB), Mac Jones (vs. TEN), Aidan O'Connell (at NO)

Running Backs 👍

Bucky Irving (vs.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Brock Purdy (vs. DET) — 41% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (at MIN), Patrick Mahomes (at PIT), Justin Herbert (at NE)

Other Good Matchups: Jayden Daniels (vs. ATL), Baker Mayfield (vs. CAR), Bo Nix (at CIN), Anthony Richardson (at NYG), Mason Rudolph (at JAX), Bryce Young (at TB), Mac Jones (vs. TEN), Aidan O'Connell (at NO)

Running Backs 👍

Bucky Irving (vs. CAR) — 69% started

Start Over — Breece Hall (at BUF), Aaron Jones (vs. GB), James Cook (vs. NYJ)

Irving ripped the Panthers for 185 total yards and a TD in Week 13, scoring a career-best 27.5 fantasy points to narrowly top his 27.2 from the game before (at NYG). He suffered a hip injury late in the game, however, and then a back injury early in the next contest, and it wasn't until Sunday night at Dallas that he fully regained his post-bye, pre-injury role. Irving got 59 percent snap share and 16 of the 19 RB carries in the 26-24 loss at Dallas, hinting at 20-carry potential if the Bucs are playing with a lead instead of chasing a deficit. There's a good chance it plays out that way Week 17, as they're favored by eight points over a Carolina team that's allowing a league-high 29.3 PPR points per game to running backs. Do whatever is necessary to get Irving in a lineup, even if it means benching a name-brand commodity like Breece Hall or Aaron Jones.

Tyjae Spears (at JAX) — 17% started

Start Over — Tank Bigsby (vs. TEN), Javonte Williams (at CIN), Kendre Miller (vs. LV)

While unlikely to match his huge fantasy scores from the past two weeks, Spears is startable this week against a terrible Jacksonville defense that just allowed TDs to both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah in a Week 16 loss at Las Vegas. Spears is making a strong case for himself down the stretch, taking on more work the past couple weeks due to a combination of negative game scripts and Tony Pollard's lingering ankle injury. Pollard is still the lead runner, but he got just two more carries than Spears in Sunday's loss to Indianapolis, with Spears handling 73 percent of snaps and 13 of 19 RB opportunities after the first quarter.

Other Good Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. ARZ), Jonathan Taylor (at NYG), Rachaad White (vs. CAR), Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet (at CHI), Alexander Mattison & Ameer Abdullah (at NO)

Wide Receivers 👍

Calvin Ridley (at JAX) — 44% started

Start Over — Marvin Harrison (at LAR), Khalil Shakir (vs. NYJ), Jakobi Meyers (at NO)

Ridley has 37 targets in Mason Rudolph's four starts, catching 21 passes for 336 yards and a touchdown. That's high-end-WR2 production (15.2 PPR points per game) despite Nick Westbrook-Ikhine stealing most of the receiving touchdowns, and it came against defenses (BUF, DET, NE, IND) that aren't nearly as pathetic as Jacksonville's. Only four teams have allowed more PPR points to wide receivers, and none has allowed more yards per target (9.17).

Jakobi Meyers (at NO) — 53% started

Start Over — Deebo Samuel (vs. DET), Jayden Reed (at MIN), Xavier Worthy (at PIT)

It was all Brock Bowers this past Sunday against Jacksonville, but Meyers' overall usage remains highly encouraging even after a down week, with his target rate at 24.4 percent post-Davante Adams. And while Aidan O'Connell isn't a starting-caliber quarterback, he's not exactly a disaster for pass-catcher production, in part because he almost never scrambles and doesn't take many sacks, which means 94 percent of his dropbacks have resulted in pass attempts (a similar rate to Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa). That number can be as low as 80 percent for QBs like Jayden Daniels or Justin Fields, with 88 percent being league average.

Other Good Matchups: Terry McLaurin (vs. ATL), Marvin Harrison (at LAR), Calvin Ridley (at JAX), Jauan Jennings & Deebo Samuel (vs. DET), Jayden Reed & Romeo Doubs (at MIN), Adam Thielen & Jalen Coker (at TB), Josh Downs (at NYG), Tre Tucker (at NO)

Tight Ends 👍

T.J. Hockenson (vs. GB) — 50% started

Start Over — Dalton Kincaid (vs. NYJ), Kyle Pitts (at WAS), Jake Ferguson (at PHI)

Hockenson hasn't scored a touchdown this season but otherwise looks about 95 percent back to form, drawing five or more targets in five straight games and ranking eighth among TEs with 1.8 yards per route. While that's a far cry from his career year in 2023, it's enough to put Hockenson back in play as a mid-range TE1, with his 48 targets being seventh most at the position since he made his season debut Week 9. He'll face a solid defense this weekend, but the Packers haven't defended tight ends especially well, allowing 13.2 PPR points per game (9th most) and 8.04 yards per target (also 9th most). This NFC North battle will play indoors and has an over/under of 49.

Other Good Matchups: Pat Freiermuth (vs. KC), Zach Ertz (vs. ATL), Chigoziem Okonkwo (at JAX), Juwan Johnson (vs. LV), Cade Otton or Payne Durham (vs. CAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

C.J. Stroud (vs. BAL) — 34% started

Start Instead — Justin Herbert (at NE), Anthony Richardson (at NYG), Matthew Stafford (vs. ARZ)

Baltimore has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to QBs this season, but the recent performances have been much better, holding Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson (twice) below 18 fantasy points. The Ravens even lead the league in a lot of pass-defense stats over the past five games — after Joe Burrow threw for 428 and 4 against them Week 10 — allowing 5.9 yards per pass attempt (1st) and a 37.1 percent dropback success rate (also 1st) in that time. While we shouldn't entirely ignore the earlier struggles, there's enough matchup concern to further downgrade Stroud, who already faces the challenge of playing with a thinned-out WR corps under a flailing offensive coordinator. Houston's implied total of 20.5 points is less than promising for not only Stroud but also Joe Mixon and Nico Collins (although you're probably starting Mixon anyway, and definitely starting Collins).

Other Tough Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at HOU), Joe Burrow (vs. DEN), Patrick Mahomes (at PIT), Russell Wilson (vs. KC), Cooper Rush (at PHI), Browns QB (vs. MIA)

Running Backs 👎

Isiah Pacheco (at PIT) — 57% started

Start Instead — Jaylen Warren (vs. KC), Tyjae Spears (at JAX), Tank Bigsby or Travis Etienne (vs. TEN)

Pacheco's workload is the main problem, and he gets dinged even further this week because he's facing a tough Pittsburgh defense on the road. He played 37 and 35 percent of snaps in Kansas City's last two games, with 14 touches for 47 yards and 10 touches for 25 yards. That's not a fantasy-starter workload, especially with Pacheco lacking his usual burst since returning from the leg/ankle fracture he suffered in September. He figures to continue splitting carries with Kareem Hunt while also losing some passing-down work to Samaje Perine.

Najee Harris (vs. KC) — 53% started

Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (vs. SEA), Jerome Ford (vs. MIA), Travis Etienne (vs. TEN)

Harris still figures to get goal-line carries, but he doesn't have anything else working in his favor at the moment, and a matchup with Kansas City's stellar defense means lower-than-usual odds for any of those short TDs to manifest. He played a season-low 34 percent of snaps in the Week 15 loss to Philadelphia, then outdid himself with 28 percent snap share in a Week 16 loss to Baltimore. Harris got 15 carries and two targets between those two games, while Jaylen Warren took 16 carries and seven targets. You really only want to be starting Harris at this point if the Steelers are heavily favored, and even then he's more of a low-end RB2 or FLEX than a high-confidence starter.

Other Tough Matchups: Josh Jacobs (at MIN), Derrick Henry (at HOU), Joe Mixon (vs. BAL), Rico Dowdle (at PHI), Jerome Ford (vs. MIA)

Wide Receivers 👎

Jerry Jeudy (vs. MIA) — 46% started

Start Instead — Rome Odunze (vs. SEA), Jalen McMillan (vs. CAR), Josh Downs (at NYG)

Unless Jameis Winston returns to the starting job, Jeudy should only be in lineups for the absolute most desperate of situations. He drew just three targets on 37 routes this past Sunday with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who probably isn't good enough to be in the NFL at all, much less making starts. Potential Week 17 starter Bailey Zappe isn't quite as pathetic, but he's still a third-string or practice-squad-quality QB more so than No. 2 caliber. A matchup against Miami is icing on the cake, with only four teams allowing fewer PPR points to wide receivers.

Other Tough Matchups: Amon-Ra St. Brown (at SF), Ja'Marr Chase (vs. DEN), CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks (at PHI), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at CHI),

Tight Ends 👎

Jake Ferguson (at PHI) — 39% started

Start Instead — Tucker Kraft (at MIN), Pat Freiermuth (vs. KC), Hunter Henry (vs. LAC)

The Eagles excellent work defending wide receivers has gotten most of the attention, but they've been equally tough on tight ends, allowing 9.8 PPR points per game (4th) and 5.77 yards per target (3rd). That'll happen when you have speedy linebackers, a standout safety and one of the top slot corners in the league, although this past Sunday at Washington wasn't exactly a banner day for the bunch. The Eagles defense should return to form Week 17 and make life difficult for Cowboys QB Cooper Rush, whose time as the starting QB hasn't been friendly to Ferguson. The tight end had nine targets in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay, but his fantasy score was still modest (10.0 PPR points)... and that's actually the best he's managed in one of Rush's starts this year.