Exploiting the Matchups: Super Bowl Matchups and Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 48.5  /  Line: Chiefs - 1.5

Implied Totals: Chiefs (25.0) at Eagles (23.5)

The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites right after the conference championship games, with the line quickly dropping to two points and then eventually 1.5 at most books. The over/under opened at 49.5, before dropping to 48.5 within a couple days.

I don't find fault with either number but slightly favor Philadelphia and the under. The Chiefs have a clear advantage in terms of QB play and coaching, but the Eagles have a better roster otherwise, with high-quality starters at nearly every position. A slew of Eagles rank among the best in the league at their respective positions, led by RB Saquon Barkley, LT Jordan Mailata and RT Lane Johnson. Others with strong claims to that status include WR A.J. Brown, LG Landon Dickerson, DT Jalen Carter, LB Zack Baun, S Reed Blankenship and slot corner Cooper DeJean. The Eagles don't have a single starter that I'd consider to be below average.

The Chiefs have a few lackluster starters, but they're arguably even stronger than Philadelphia at the very top of the roster, with QB Patrick Mahomes and DT Chris Jones being two of the best players in the league. Others that rank among the best at their positions include C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, CB Trent McDuffie and LBs Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal. TE Travis Kelce might be a half-notch below that distinction at this point in his career, but you'd still take him over some of the "better" tight ends come playoff time. And then there's Joe Thuney, an elite left guard who has been masquerading as a competent-but-not-elite left tackle for the past couple months.

Jerry's Prediction: Eagles 24 - Chiefs 23

Weather

The game will be played in the Superdome in New Orleans.

Injuries

Both teams are incredibly healthy, even when accounting for the benefit of an extra week to prepare. They each have just one starter on injured reserve, with the Chiefs missing WR Rashee Rice (knee) since Week 4 and the Eagles losing LB Nakobe Dean (knee) during the playoffs. Philadelphia also has a couple semi-important backups on IR, while KC's IR guys besides Rice are all bottom-of-the-roster types.

RB Kenneth Gainwell (concussion) - QUESTIONABLE

DT Jalen Carter (illness) - PROBABLE

 WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) - PROBABLE

 EDGE Brandon Graham (triceps) - IR/R - QUESTIONABLE

 WR Britain Covey (neck) - IR/R - QUESTIONABLE

 TE C.J. Uzomah (abdomen) - IR/R - QUESTIONABLE

I'm writing this Thursday morning, and there's a good chance Gainwell, Carter and Smith all will avoid injury designations at the end of the week. It also looks like the Eagles may have two or three backups returning from IR, although only Graham would figure to get any snaps that aren't on special teams. Graham was a starter for most of his career and one of the heroes in Philadelphia's Super Bowl win over the Patriots, but he's been a backup for three years now and was playing about 30 snaps per game prior to tearing his triceps in late November. He'll likely play fewer snaps than that if he's active come Sunday.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, seem to have zero injury question marks for the Super Bowl. I don't think I've ever seen a team this healthy heading into the big game, with just one relevant player on IR and none listed on the injury report.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Chiefs Greatest Strength(s): QB Patrick Mahomes & HC Andy Reid

I've been listing this as Kansas City's greatest strength in these playoff matchups articles for years now. It may not be interesting, but it's the truth. The Chiefs weren't dominant on offense during the past two regular seasons and haven't had a high rate of long gains since trading Tyreek Hill three years ago, but they're still incredibly good at sustaining drives in the playoffs and picking up first downs in crucial moments. 

Part of that is because Mahomes is more willing to scramble during the postseason, and it also helps that Reid saves some of his best playcalls for the playoffs, forcing opponents to defend plays/formations that the Chiefs either barely used during the regular season or didn't use at all. The same is true on the other side of the ball, with DC Steve Spagnuolo able to save some of his favorite looks for January because he knows his team will win the AFC West each year. Some would even argue that Spagnuolo's playcalling on defense is more valuable than Reid's work with the offense.

Chiefs Greatest Weakness(es): LG Mike Caliendo and RT Jawaan Taylor

Taylor is a long-time starter in the NFL, but he's never quite lived up to his billing as the 25th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Run blocking has been a consistent weakness, and while his pass blocking is much better, he was flagged for a league-high 20 penalties in 2023 and then had the second most this season (18). A lot of NFL fans know him as the guy who regularly jumps into his pass-blocking stance before the snap but is only occasionally called for it. He's gotten better about that since last season, to be fair.

Caliendo is far less experienced, having played just 87 career snaps on offense before the Chiefs made him their starting left guard Week 15, pushing Thuney outside and LT D.J. Humphries to the bench. PFF gives Caliendo a 49.4 grade between the regular season and playoffs, which puts him 72nd out of 77 qualified guards, although he's been charged with just one sack allowed (against Buffalo in the AFCCG). I don't think Caliendo is as bad as the PFF grade suggests, but it's still fair to call him the worst starter in the Super Bowl. 

The only other projected Super Bowl starters I'd label as subpar NFL starters are Taylor and Chiefs S Bryan Cook. There's nobody on the Philadelphia side, although S C.J. Gardner-Johnson was a weak link early in the season before getting his act together and returning to his peak level of play (or close to it).

Eagles Greatest Strength(s): Rush Offense / Pass Defense

No change here from the previous rounds. Barkley is having arguably the best season ever by a running back, combining his A+ tools with the benefit of an elite offensive line and a rushing threat at QB. It's the perfect storm for RB production — apart from Jalen Hurts poaching the one-yard touchdown — and Barkley's breakaway runs seem to have become a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'. He had three long TD runs the past two weeks, and he would've had another in the wild-card round if he hadn't gone down intentionally to run out the clock on a victory.

Philadelphia's pass defense was nearly as dominant as Barkley after the first month of the season, finishing Top 5 in basically every efficiency metric despite getting off to a slow-ish start in September. Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay and Cooper DeJean may be the best cornerback trio in the league, and the Eagles also have gotten strong safety play from Reed Blankenship and a rejuvenated C.J. Gardner-Johnson. As efficient as Washington's passing game has been, it makes sense to stay balanced against the Eagles unless a large deficit forces the matter.

Eagles Greatest Weakness(es): Passing Offense

This has been an on-and-off thing in Philadelphia for years now, with Jalen Hurts and Co. producing no shortage of hyper-efficient games but then also struggling for a long stretch at least once every year. Things looked to have gotten back on track when Hurts threw for 290 yards in a 27-13 win over the Steelers in Week 15 (and made snappy/defiant comments to the media afterwards), but he then suffered a concussion in the first quarter of the Week 16 loss at Washington and didn't do much in Philadelphia's first two playoff games.

The conference championship round was a different story, with the Eagles throwing the ball a surprising amount even though Barkley had a 60-yard TD run on their first play from scrimmage. Hurts was up to the task, completing 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown, with two sacks and no turnovers. He also ran for three TDs — one on a scramble and two from the tush push. The truth is that the Eagles have no real weakness; they just don't have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Divisional Round Advanced Box Scores

Matchup Upgrades

None

These are two of the best defenses in the league, and also two of the healthiest. Both have veteran coordinators with long track records of success — Spagnuolo for the Chiefs, and Vic Fangio for the Eagles. Philadelphia finished ahead of Kansas City for most defensive metrics during the regular season, but the Chiefs' history of playoff success means nobody will underestimate their defense. And while the Eagles have a lot of great players, none of them quite matches DT Chris Jones' level of dominance.

Matchup Downgrades

Chiefs WRs

RB Saquon Barkley

Every offensive player in this game has a tough matchup relative to regular standards, but Philadelphia's defense was much better than Kansas City's in terms of limiting fantasy production to opponents. The Eagles were third in PPR points allowed to QBs, second against RBs, eighth against WRs and second against tight ends. 

The Chiefs finished 21st against QBs, first against RBs, 19th against WRs and 29th against TEs... although the numbers against RBs and TEs are at least partially a product of the schedule, including two matchups against a Raiders offense that was extremely heavy on TE production and extremely light on RB scoring. 

It's actually been the Eagles that have allowed a lot of points to tight ends in the playoffs, allowing 5-26-0 to Tucker Kraft (five targets), 7-54-1 to Tyler Higbee (10 targets) and 11-104-0 to Zach Ertz (16 targets). The per-target numbers are fine, and the volume is largely due to the Eagles forcing their opponents to abandon the run whilst sporting the best group of cornerbacks in the league. The Chiefs are well aware of Philadelphia's excellent corners and likely will try to feed TEs Travis Kelce and Noah Gray... the Eagles, of course, are aware of this, and might shift coverage toward the middle, which in turn would help speedy wideouts Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy find space. The Chiefs may not have a true mismatch anywhere, but Brown and Worthy both are much faster than 34-year-old perimeter corner Darius Slay, who is arguably the relative weak link if only because he's not a burner anymore.