Exploiting the Matchups: Divisional Round Start/Sit and Rankings

In addition to the usual matchups analysis, you'll find my PPR rankings for each position below, with color-coding to delineate tiers. Good luck to all in whatever fantasy/betting action you've got going on this weekend!

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Jayden Daniels (at DET)

Start Over — Jalen Hurts (vs. LAR), Jared Goff (vs. WAS)

Daniels is in a great spot for both efficiency and volume, playing indoors against an injury-riddled defense as an 8.5-point underdog in a game with an over/under of 55.5. If the Commanders pull off an upset, or at least threaten to do so, it'll likely be behind a massive game from their rookie QB. If they take a beating and fall way behind, it'll set the stage for Daniels to pile up fantasy points in comeback mode. Either way, the Commanders haven't gotten much from their running backs lately and figure to rely on Daniels for nearly all of their yards and points against a Detroit team that increasingly became a shootout machine as the season progressed.

• Other Good Matchups: Jared Goff (vs. WAS)

Divisional-Round QB Rankings

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Josh Allen
3. Jayden Daniels
4. Jalen Hurts
5. Jared Goff
6. Patrick Mahomes
7. C.J. Stroud
8. Matthew Stafford

Running Backs 👍

• Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (vs. WAS)

Detroit's offensive line versus Washington's defensive line is about as drastic of a mismatch as you'll ever see in the playoffs. Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Jer'Zhan Newton can get after quarterbacks, but they all finished the regular season ranked 82nd or worse in PFF run-stopping grade among interior linemen, which is why the Commanders gave up 4.9 YPC ro running backs (30th) despite having standout linebackers in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Relying on Wagner and Luvu to shoot gaps and make incredible plays may work alright at times, but it's unlikely to play well against an offense that's elite in terms of both scheme and blocking talent... not to mention all the extra yards Gibbs and Montgomery gain. There's risk of Montgomery's workload being less than usual in his first back from an MCL injury, but I still like his chances to average around five yards per carry and score a TD.

• Other Good Matchups: Saquon Barkley (vs. LAR)

Divisional-Round RB Rankings

1. Jahmyr Gibbs
2. Saquon Barkley
3. Derrick Henry
4. Kyren Williams
5. James Cook
6. Joe Mixon
7. David Montgomery
8. Isiah Pacheco
9. Brian Robinson
10. Austin Ekeler
11. Kareem Hunt
12. Justice Hill
13. Ty Johnson
14. Samaje Perine
15. Dare Ogunbowale
16. Kenneth Gainwell

Wide Receivers 👍

• A.J. Brown (vs. LAR)

Start Over — Terry McLaurin (at DET), Jameson Williams (vs. WAS)

Brown was M.I.A. this past Sunday, one day before the Rams put the clamps on Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. It'll likely be a different story on both sides this week, as Jalen Hurts and his elite offensive line won't be overwhelmed the way Sam Darnold and his mediocre blockers were. That'll give Brown a chance to beat up on a secondary that struggled against perimeter receivers during the regular season, allowing the eighth most yards (1,892) and third most touchdowns (14) while ranking dead last in EPA/pass (0.44) and third to last in YPA (9.1). Consider it a bonus if 6-foot-2 starting cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (thigh) is inactive after making an early exit in the wild-card round.

• Olamide Zaccheaus (at DET)

Start Over — Keon Coleman (vs. BAL), Dyami Brown (vs. DET), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. HOU)

Dyami Brown stepped up big last week, but Zaccheaus generally has been the better player throughout their respective careers, including for most of this season. Zaccheaus also happens to be taking a majority of his snaps in the slot, where Detroit allowed a league-high 1,672 receiving yards during the regular season. Things got even worse Weeks 16-18 after injuries to other defenders forced S Brian Branch back to the slot, with the Lions then allowing a league-high 74.6 PPR points (29-336-2) to slot-aligned receivers over the final three games. Branch is a good football player, but at 6-0, 203, with 4.58 speed, he fits better as a strong safety than he does as a slot corner. Zaccheaus has a huge advantage in terms of quickness/agility, and he should get a bunch of one-on-one opportunities against a Detroit defense that used man coverage on a league-high* 47.7 percent of dropbacks during the regular season.

*Yes, I know I used "league-high" three different times in one blurb.

• Other Good Matchups: Terry McLaurin & Dyami Brown (at DET), Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. WAS), John Metchie (vs. KC)

Divisional-Round WR Rankings

(Assuming Zay Flowers doesn't play)

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Nico Collins
3. Puka Nacua
4. A.J. Brown
5. Terry McLaurin
6. Jameson Williams
7. DeVonta Smith
8. Khalil Shakir
9. Xavier Worthy
10. Rashod Bateman
11. Hollywood Brown
12. Cooper Kupp
13. Olamide Zaccheaus
14. Dyami Brown
15. DeAndre Hopkins
16. Keon Coleman
17. John Metchie
18. Demarcus Robinson
19. Curtis Samuel
20. Tim Patrick
21. Tylan Wallace
22. Amari Cooper
23. Mack Hollins
24. Jahan Dotson
25. Xavier Hutchinson
26. Nelson Agholor

Tight Ends 👍

• Sam LaPorta (vs. WAS)

Start Over — Mark Andrews (vs. BUF), Travis Kelce (vs. HOU)

The Commanders were about average in terms of total production allowed to tight ends this season, but the per-target stats were poor, ranking 27th in EPA/pass with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio. Wagner and Luvu are better when defending the run and blitzing than they are in coverage, and the same is arguably true of safeties Jeremy Chinn and Quan Martin. My bigger concern, however, is that Washington will need to sell out to stop the run to make up for the disadvantage in line play, which in turn will free up LaPorta for some easy receptions off play-action. It's a toss-up between LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews for TE1 status this weekend, with LaPorta arguably offering the best mix of volume expectation and TD odds.

• Other Good Matchups: Dallas Goedert (vs. LAR), Dalton Schultz (at KC)

Divisional-Round TE Rankings

(Assuming Higbee, Ertz and Schultz all play)

1. Sam LaPorta 
2. Travis Kelce
3. Mark Andrews
4. Dallas Goedert
5. Zach Ertz
6. Dalton Schultz 
7. Isaiah Likely  
8. Tyler Higbee (chest)
9. Dalton Kincaid
10. Noah Gray
11. Dawson Knox

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Matthew Stafford (at PHI)

Start Instead — anyone

The Rams came out throwing last week and scored 10 points on their first two drives, using multi-TE formations on nine of 14 plays — a smart counter to Brian Flores' unpredictable blitzes, creating additional pre-snap uncertainty about which eligible receivers would be blocking and which would be running routes. Sean McVay may stick with the two-TE looks this weekend, especially if Tyler Higbee makes a quick recovery from his chest injury, but the Rams are unlikely to come out of the gates pass-happy against a Philadelphia defense that's less reliant on unpredictable blitzes and more reliant on pure talent. 

Led by veteran coordinator Vic Fangio and arguably the best secondary in the league, Philadelphia has been the ultimate nightmare matchup for QBs for the past 3-4 months. McVay presumably will want to lean on RB Kyren Williams and try to win a slow-paced, low-scoring game. Stafford might have an efficient afternoon if he's able to build off a successful running game, or he might have a high-volume outing if the Rams fall way behind. The chances of combining both volume and efficiency are minimal

• Other Tough Matchups: C.J. Stroud (at KC)

Running Backs 👎

• James Cook (vs. BAL)

Start Instead — Kyren Williams (at PHI)

The Ravens completely shut down Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren last week, after leading the NFL in rushing yards (63.8) and YPC (3.46) allowed to running backs during the regular season. Buffalo's running game is good enough to succeed against even the best defenses, but we should still acknowledge that the odds for efficient production are lower than usual this week. There's also some chance the Bills respond to the tough matchup by taking the ball out of their running back's hands and putting even more of the burden on QB Josh Allen. It all adds up to a wide range of outcomes for Cook, who was consistent during the regular season despite being highly reliant on touchdowns, scoring double-digit PPR points in all but two games. One of those games, of course, was the 35-10 loss at Baltimore in Week 4, when he finished with 9-39-0 rushing and one catch for nine yards. Cook should do better than that this Sunday, but perhaps not by much.

• Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon (at KC), Isiah Pacheco & Kareem Hunt (vs. HOU)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Khalil Shakir (vs. BAL)

Start Instead —  Jameson Williams (vs. WAS), DeVonta Smith (vs. LAR)

More than half of Shakir's receiving yards in the regular season were yards after the catch on passes he caught from a slot/tight alignment. It's a good formula for the most part, but less so against a Baltimore defense that uses top cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the slot while also having LB Roquan Smith and S Kyle Hamilton patrolling the middle of the field.

The Ravens have shut down slot receivers since Week 11, when they shifted Hamilton to more deep-coverage responsibilities and put Humphrey inside full-time. Since making that change, Baltimore's EPA per target on slot passes is a league-best -0.11, with three TDs against four interceptions and 6.8 YPT. It'll be harder than usual for Shakir to catch passes, and also more difficult to shed tacklers when he does.

• Other Tough Matchups: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp & Demarcus Robinson (at PHI), Nico Collins (at KC)

Tight Ends 👎

• Tyler Higbee (at PHI)

Start Instead — Dalton Schultz (at KC), Isaiah Likely (at BUF)

Higbee reportedly will play this weekend, six days after spitting up blood in the hospital. Just don't expect a repeat of Monday's first-quarter explosion (5-58-0 on 11 routes) even if he's back in a near-every-down role, as was the case Monday night. Philadelphia allowed the fewest receiving yards (591) to tight ends during the regular season, ranking third in completion percentage (66.0 percent, behind only Detroit and Houston) and first in yards per target (6.3). There's really no weakness on this Eagles defense, even after LB Nakobe Dean suffered a season-ending knee injury. LB Oren Burks is a capable, experienced replacement, and with 4.59 speed to boot.

• Other Tough Matchups: Travis Kelce & Noah Gray (vs. HOU), Dalton Kincaid (vs. BAL)