DraftKings NFL: Week 15 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 15 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, DraftKings is running a Rotowire Championship. Qualifiers will run in Weeks 15 and 16, with the top 31 lineups (out of a 175-entry field) making it through to the final in Week 17. Here's the link for this week's rake-free qualifier, which has a buy-in of just $5.

Anyway, before we get to individual player picks for Week 15, there are a few key injuries to keep an eye on leading up to this weekend's games:

First and foremost, Kansas City's Charcandrick West ($4,800) will be an elite option in Sunday's road matchup with the Ravens, but only if Spencer Ware (ribs) isn't able to play. Should Ware sit this one out, West would surpass all of the guys listed below as my favorite play at running back this week, as there's little doubt the Chiefs (and their potent running game) will be playing from ahead.

LeSean McCoy ($6,300) will be a solid option even if Karlos Williams (shoulder) returns, but Shady's prospects would undoubtedly be brighter if his rookie teammate were to miss another game.

Amari Cooper (foot) isn't believed to be dealing with a serious injury, but if he does end up missing Sunday's game against the Packers, we'd likely see a reasonably priced Michael Crabtree ($5,700) gobble up double-digit targets.

With Donte Moncrief (foot) looking shaky, there should be a few extra targets to go around in the Indy offense, albeit against a solid Houston defense. I still wouldn't want to touch anyone besides Frank Gore ($4,000) and T.Y. Hilton ($5,900), but the latter would benefit more than you might think from a Moncrief absence.

Last and probably least important, San Diego's Dontrelle Inman ($3,000) looks like the top min-priced play at wide receiver, but I'll have to look elsewhere if Steve Johnson (groin) is ready to return. The sub-$4,000 guys are still a tough sell in a week with so much value available from $4,400-$7,000.

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, ARI at PHI ($7,000): I can't really argue with Russell Wilson being the most popular choice at quarterback, but I do think Palmer is an equally strong play. Wilson will be efficient with his modest volume against a putrid Cleveland defense, whereas Palmer and the Arizona offense face a much tougher opponent, but one that plays at the league's fastest pace on the other side of the ball. Not to say that things will come easily, but the floor-ceiling combo is tough to beat when you have an elite offense facing a defense that leads the NFL in snaps against. With the exception of Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400), who is still a decent play, all of Arizona's key guys are underpriced.

Drew Brees, NO vs. DET ($6,600): Once again doing his best work in the friendly confines of the Superdome, Brees has everything lined up in his favor this week. He'll have his full complement of weapons (besides running back Mark Ingram) against a mediocre Detroit defense that's very dependent on a few players. This looks like another New Orleans shootout, and with so many other solid options at quarterback, Brees won't carry the sky-high ownership that he typically would in such a good spot. He's averaging exactly 350 passing yards and three total touchdowns in home games this season.

Other options: Russell Wilson, SEA vs. CLE ($7,000); Matthew Stafford, DET at NO ($6,100); Tyrod Taylor, BUF at WAS ($5,600)

Running Back

Chris Ivory, NYJ at DAL ($5,200): Overpriced around $6,000 for much of the season, Ivory finally dropped down to the proper range last week. His lack of receiving contribution made the higher price tough to justify, as he pretty much needed a touchdown and the 100-yard bonus (or just a pair of touchdowns) to provide the kind of point-per-dollar return that we're seeking in large tournaments. At this price, I'll be ecstatic (but not surprised) if Ivory reaches both the end zone and the bonus. He'll face a Dallas defense that was last seen giving up a combined 35-195-2 rushing line to Eddie Lacy and James Starks.

Brandon Bolden, NE vs. TEN ($3,200) : If you're fully sold on the idea of a New England blowout, it makes sense to use Bolden over any of his teammates, at least in GPPs. Fears regarding the Patriots backfield are unfounded, as it seems quite clear that Bolden will slide right into the LeGarrette Blount role, leaving James White in the passing-down role that he's held for the last few weeks. Regardless of which running back fares better early on, Bolden will likely do the heavy lifting after halftime, assuming the Patriots have a nice lead. It's an assumption I'm happy to make, as Marcus Mariota isn't (yet) good enough to make up for his team's lousy coaching, bad receivers and non-existent running game.

Other options: Adrian Peterson, MIN vs. CHI ($7,100); DeAngelo Williams, PIT vs. DEN ($6,600); LeSean McCoy, BUF at WAS ($6,300); David Johnson, ARI at PHI ($5,700); Denard Robinson, JAC vs. ATL ($4,600); Javorius Allen, BAL vs. KC ($4,500); Latavius Murray, OAK vs. GB ($4,500); Frank Gore, IND vs. HOU ($4,000); Tim Hightower, NO vs. DET ($3,900)

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones, ATL at JAX ($8,500): If ever there were a week to pass up the first-tier wideouts in favor of the second-tier guys, this would be it. Jones has an excellent matchup with the Jaguars, but all of Odell Beckham (facing Josh Norman), DeAndre Hopkins (no Brian Hoyer) and Antonio Brown (facing the NFL's best defense) are in terrible spots to produce. While you can still make an argument for all of those guys as big-tournament options, Jones is the best bet among the bunch, even with the Atlanta offense in a state of complete disarray. The production hasn't been there the last few weeks, but with his target volume remaining massive, Jones has at least one big game left in him this season.

Calvin Johnson, DET at NO ($6,900): Despite his unusual disappearance last week, Johnson should be one of the more highly-owned receivers in contests this upcoming weekend. His matchup is obviously as good as it gets, especially because he figures to see a lot of Brandon Browner, arguably the NFL's worst starting cornerback. Teammate Golden Tate should also enjoy the fantastic matchup, but I'll happily pony up the extra $1,400 for a superior player who dominates the red-zone looks.

John Brown/Michael Floyd, ARI at PHI ($4,900/$4,400): Floyd will be the more popular choice because of his recent production and lower price, but Brown also deserves serious consideration as one of the most underpriced players for Week 15. Floyd would be the obvious choice for cash games, but I do think there's a lot to be said for a Palmer-Brown stack that won't be as popular as the Palmer-Floyd or Palmer-Larry Fitzgerald ones. Of course, given their respective prices, it's also pretty easy to make an argument for the Palmer-Brown-Floyd stack. Fitzgerald will likely spend at least half of the game matched up with do-it-all defensive back Malcolm Jenkins, leaving his teammates to feast on the Eagles' mediocre outside cornerbacks.

Other options: Odell Beckham, NYG vs. CAR ($9,200); Antonio Brown, PIT vs. DEN ($8,700); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. IND ($8,500); Alshon Jeffery, CHI at MIN ($7,300); Demaryius Thomas, DEN at PIT ($6,800); Jarvis Landry, MIA at SD ($6,300); Sammy Watkins, BUF at WAS ($6,200); Doug Baldwin, SEA vs. CLE ($5,800); Jeremy Maclin, KC at BAL ($5,500); Willie Snead, NO vs. DET ($4,600); Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. CLE ($4,200)

Tight End

Julius Thomas, JAX vs. ATL ($4,700): Although the yardage totals have mostly been unimpressive, Thomas still has a touchdown in each of his last four games, averaging 5.3 catches on 7.5 targets over that span. Even without Peyton Manning's assistance, it turns out that the 27-year-old Thomas is still one of the league's top red-zone threats. Don't be scared off by his unimpressive average of 11.6 DraftKings points per game, as the Jaguars eased him in on limited snaps in his first few appearances of the season. To be fair, I do prefer Zach Ertz for cash games, as Thomas is rather pricey for a guy who can put up some really ugly stat lines when he doesn't score a touchdown.

Other options: Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. TEN ($7,700); Gary Barnidge, CLE at SEA ($5,000); Ben Watson, NO vs. DET ($4,800); Antonio Gates, SD vs. MIA ($4,600); Zach Ertz, PHI vs. ARI ($3,200); Ryan Griffin, HOU at IND ($2,500); Vance McDonald, SF vs. CIN ($2,500)

Team Defense/Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts vs. HOU ($2,000): I'm not sure that T.J. Yates is much worse than Brian Hoyer (concussion), but even with the latter under center, the Houston offense had been coming unglued. Indy's defense has actually been even worse than Houston's offense the past two weeks, but there were previously some signs of major improvement from Weeks 9-12. Of course, it doesn't really matter, as even the New Orleans defense would be usable in a home matchup against T.J. Yates.

Other options: Kansas City Chiefs at BAL ($3,700); New England Patriots vs. TEN ($3,700); Pittsburgh Steelers vs. DEN ($2,700); Houston Texans at IND ($2,500); Jacksonville Jaguars vs. ATL ($2,400); San Diego Chargers vs. MIA ($2,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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