This article will identify one redraft fantasy fade from each of the 32 teams. The entries are listed in alphabetical order of team location. Some of the entries are less courageous than others, but surely there's something for everyone to get mad about.
Arizona: Greg Dortch, WR
Dortch is a fine slot receiver when you're trying to get into scoring range at the end of the first half, but as far as base offensive functions go he's unlikely to be a starter. The Cardinals will use a lot of multi-tight end looks in 2024, and especially if a guy like Tip Reiman is on the field it would assure that one of Trey McBride or Elijah Higgins is lining up in the slot, thus blocking Dortch. Michael Wilson will be the second-most productive Arizona wideout behind Marvin Harrison. Dortch will likely struggle to play much more than 500 snaps this year, so expecting more than something like 50 catches for 550 yards and a couple touchdowns isn't fair.
Atlanta: Kirk Cousins, QB
Cousins should make a fine QB2 in most fantasy leagues this year and even has an outside shot of finishing in the top 12 at the position, but that would probably require a down year from players who are more likely to outproduce Cousins. As much as it's a big upgrade for pass catchers like Drake London and Kyle Pitts either way, Cousins might not be able to play at his customary high level
This article will identify one redraft fantasy fade from each of the 32 teams. The entries are listed in alphabetical order of team location. Some of the entries are less courageous than others, but surely there's something for everyone to get mad about.
Arizona: Greg Dortch, WR
Dortch is a fine slot receiver when you're trying to get into scoring range at the end of the first half, but as far as base offensive functions go he's unlikely to be a starter. The Cardinals will use a lot of multi-tight end looks in 2024, and especially if a guy like Tip Reiman is on the field it would assure that one of Trey McBride or Elijah Higgins is lining up in the slot, thus blocking Dortch. Michael Wilson will be the second-most productive Arizona wideout behind Marvin Harrison. Dortch will likely struggle to play much more than 500 snaps this year, so expecting more than something like 50 catches for 550 yards and a couple touchdowns isn't fair.
Atlanta: Kirk Cousins, QB
Cousins should make a fine QB2 in most fantasy leagues this year and even has an outside shot of finishing in the top 12 at the position, but that would probably require a down year from players who are more likely to outproduce Cousins. As much as it's a big upgrade for pass catchers like Drake London and Kyle Pitts either way, Cousins might not be able to play at his customary high level in 2024, at least not right away as a 36-year-old quarterback returning from a mid-season Achilles' tendon tear playing in new offensive scheme.
Baltimore: Derrick Henry, RB
Henry has a chance to produce as one of the NFL's top running backs in 2024, because he should get a big rushing workload in an offense that might be able to score some points, in sharp contrast to the recent iterations of the Tennessee offenses. The problem for Henry in 0.5PPR and especially PPR scoring is that he is not a realistic candidate for so many as 25 receptions in 2024, which puts a ton of pressure on Henry's rushing production to pay at ADP. Henry has been an outlier producer as a pure rusher before, but he'd need to specifically be among the league leaders in rushing production to keep up in the fantasy points column against running backs who can catch 40-plus receptions.
Buffalo: James Cook, RB
NFL defenses don't respect Cook as a power runner. That was actually helpful against Dallas in 2023, when Cook ran for 179 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries as Dan Quinn's defense bizarrely ignored its run gaps all game to instead blitz Josh Allen recklessly. Unfortunately for Cook, no other defenses were quite so disrespectful, and when facing more competent defensive play in the other 16 games Cook accumulated just 943 rushing yards (4.45 yards per carry) while scoring only one rushing touchdown. Ray Davis is a problem Cook can't afford at ADP.
Carolina: Adam Thielen, WR
Thielen managed to make some magic in an otherwise doomed Carolina offense last year, and in doing so Thielen demonstrated that he still is a capable NFL receiver, if mostly as a slot specialist. That was a triumph and a credit to how great of an NFL receiver Thielen has been all this time, but now he's 34 years old and the Panthers added another low-ADOT target hog in Diontae Johnson. Granted, Johnson should run mostly on the boundary and Thielen should continue to run in the slot, which accommodated him well last year, but given Thielen's age there's a strong chance Johnson poaches a problematic share of the targets from Thielen in an offense that will probably continue to be among the worst league passing offenses.
Chicago: Keenan Allen, WR
It's not fun to fade Allen, even if he's a 32.5-year-old wideout whose weight has curiously gone up to around 230 pounds, but durability and speed have never been in Allen's favor and over the course of the 2024 season he's likely to get reduced to a slot specialist role while elite rookie wideout prospect Rome Odunze increasingly snatches up territory on the boundary. If decline is at all looming over Allen then Odunze is the kind of talent that can send the otherwise exceptional veteran wideout into a rotational role.
Cincinnati: Jermaine Burton, WR
Burton is a talented downfield wideout and should make some useful plays for the Bengals in that regard, but the rookie third-round pick might be limited to a frustrating specialist role while Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gesicki rotate in often at Burton's expense. In a high-ADOT, limited snap role it's unlikely that Burton will make a noticeable fantasy impact, let alone a predictable one.
Cleveland: Amari Cooper, WR
Cooper is clearly excellent and was a true terror in his 2023 career year, but that season stands out as anomalous even among Cooper's otherwise excellent prior NFL career of nine years. As much as Cooper is clearly the real deal and not to be doubted for his own part, it's still concerning that Cooper's price is as high as ever when his quarterback situation is more concerning than ever – even worse than when Cooper was stuck with Derek Carr and the Raiders. Deshaun Watson's shoulder injury has seemingly robbed him of whatever little throwing velocity he ever had.
Dallas: Rico Dowdle, RB
Dowdle can be a functional part of a running back rotation, offering a little bit of burst and pop off the bench, but even in college Dowdle was never able to establish himself as a viable starter at South Carolina. Dowdle was a backup to Tavien Feaster his final year at South Carolina and before that was unable to hold off non-prospects like Mon Denson, Ty'Son Williams and A.J. Turner. The analysis around Dowdle in the fantasy industry in 2024 is completely insane and will go down as an even weirder hype phenomenon than the Tank Bigsby mania of 2023.
Denver: Troy Franklin, WR
Franklin is a classic case of a rookie who needs some time in the minors. Franklin would ideally bulk up a bit – at 6-foot-2, 176 pounds he's actually seven pounds lighter than teammate Marvin Mims, who's regarded as an undersized wideout at 183 pounds. Franklin also needs time working on his hands – Franklin was an exceptional player at Oregon but he dealt with drops at times and his gauntlet drill at the combine was memorably bad.
Detroit: Jared Goff, QB
Goff will be fine in 2024, I just kind of had to reach for something here because Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery are locked in for business as usual. Even Jameson Williams appears to have tapped into a new level. Goff still is a poor prospect to buy in fantasy after an obvious career year, in my opinion, and whatever the case Goff is a quarterback who requires more accommodation than quarterbacks like Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford, all of whom go at least one round later than Goff. I think you need to worry about Goff getting caught by quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Daniel Jones, too.
Green Bay Packers: MarShawn Lloyd, RB
Sometimes a myth will catch on in the fantasy football world, ultimately because it's a fun story to believe, and that was the case with Lloyd earlier this offseason, when tall tales were spun about Lloyd kicking aside Josh Jacobs as the Packers' starter. Then it became clear in training camp that Lloyd was behind AJ Dillon on the depth chart, and a lot of hype quieted down. If Lloyd is truly cheap in your draft – think 15th round or later – then it's fine to draft him around there in the hopes that he gets his fumbling and pass-catching improved enough to play later in the season. The people who told you to draft him in the 12th in bulk, however, owe you an apology for what was an easily foreseeable outcome.
Houston Texans: No one
This is cheating, but I just can't in good faith advise anyone to fade any of C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell or even Dalton Schultz. I'm not even a Schultz fan, but the Texans are paying him significant money and that likely means Stroud gave his approval on Schultz. If Stroud throws 40 or more touchdowns this year then pretty much all of the draftable Houston route runners would be useful for fantasy investors, and Mixon's three-down skill set in said high-scoring offense would be valuable for obvious reasons. Can I list Robert Woods here? Fade Robert Woods.
Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell, WR
Underclassman wideouts often start slow in the NFL even when they turn out to be standout producers in the longer run, so Mitchell could turn out to be one of the better NFL wideouts in two years while still disappointing his fantasy investors in 2024. The Colts are unlikely to throw the ball much with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor posing such a uniquely explosive rushing threat, and the Colts have a considerable amount of incumbent talent between Michael Pittman (WR1), Josh Downs (WR2/Slot) and Alec Pierce (WR3/boundary). Mitchell should make some big plays in 2024, but he's likely to see much more opportunity in 2025.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Engram, TE
Engram should be fine, and his YPT/YPR numbers should improve since the arrival of Brian Thomas at wideout will relieve a lot of the downward pressure from defenses that otherwise fell hard on Engram. While a more efficient season from Engram would be good for the Jacksonville passing game, it might actually be a detriment to Engram's catch volume relative to 2023. 80 catches for 963 yards is generally better than 114 catches for 963 yards in real-life football terms, but of course this is not true for fantasy leagues that award points for receptions.
Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR
Worthy is clearly a good player and his speed will cause immediate problems for NFL defenses, but (A so will the speed of Marquise Brown, who's much more polished than Worthy in the meantime and (B) Andy Reid tends to bring rookie receivers along slowly. Justin Watson will probably log an obnoxious number of snaps that thins the profit margins of Worthy's redraft investors, too. Worthy should have a strong rookie season, but the 2025 season is where Worthy will decisively step ahead of Brown (a free agent) and Watson.
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR
Johnston won at the collegiate level as a speed wideout – creating separation and running away from players after the catch. When he logged a pro day 4.52 40 it should have been recognized as a red flag, because that kind of 40 time does not indicate a sufficient level of speed to continue to win at the NFL level by the same means Johnston did at TCU. Johnston would have to win in the NFL without such separation, which means he would have to win through contact at the catch point. The problem is that Johnston does not have natural hands and he has never been good with contact. This was just a botched evaluation. Johnston will be the Chargers' WR4 this year.
Los Angeles Rams: Demarcus Robinson, WR
Robinson should be useful in some capacity in 2024, but rookie sixth-round pick Jordan Whittington is probably the better player right now and at the very least is a better athlete than the plodding Robinson. Whittington is also likely a better blocker and threat after the catch.
Las Vegas Raiders: Davante Adams, WR
Great player, but Adams is likely declining and last year he was actually a below-baseline producer on roughly 1/3 of Las Vegas' targets. It's likely true that Adams would have been able to provide above-baseline returns on something like 27.5 percent of the Raiders' targets, but at that target share it's not as easy to justify Adams as a second-round fantasy pick. The Raiders' passing game is not guaranteed to be truly better in 2024, and this time around Adams is a year older and has to compete with Brock Bowers for targets. One third of Vegas' target volume might be enough for Adams to pay off at ADP, but he's not getting a third again.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tagovailoa seems just good enough in the system to allow Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to reach their ambitions most weeks, but his fragility from matchup to matchup or his ability to completely fall apart in cold or windy weather makes him needlessly high-maintenance in redraft. Tagovailoa is a good QB2, but if you draft him as a QB1 you'll invite the headache of trying to anticipate Tagovailoa's low points from week to week.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones, RB
I love Aaron Jones and have been a ground-floor truther since his days at UTEP, so it stings me to list him here. The unfortunate details are what they are, however. Jones has never been especially durable and that's unlikely to improve with age 30 coming up in December, and at that age you also have to worry about Jones losing a step any minute now. I expect the Vikings to lose often and early in 2024, which makes me low on the Minnesota rushing volume projection even if Jones stays healthy all year.
New England Patriots: Javon Baker, WR
Baker drew a great deal of training camp hype for winning in 1-on-1 drills, but the actual game is more nuanced than that and Baker is not nearly as compelling in real game settings. Baker might become a viable starter at some point, but in 2025 he's more likely to be the WR6 in New England.
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr, QB
No one likes this guy and the Saints offensive line is so sketchy that it might look like they're trying to get Carr hurt this year. Even though they aren't...probably.
New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR
Nabers is a top talent at receiver but he's going ahead of other players who are already proven veteran top talents at receiver, and none of those guys have to catch passes from Daniel Jones. In my opinion Nabers' ADP is an overcorrection from Ja'Marr Chase's rookie year, when Chase would fall into the fifth round of drafts. Nabers is not as good as Chase and Nabers is not catching passes from Joe Burrow. Enough.
New York Jets: Mike Williams, WR
It would be different if Williams weren't trying to shake his ACL tear from last year, and of course if Aaron Rodgers weren't trying to come back from his own Achilles' tendon tear. In the meantime, though, Williams is 30-year-old receiver trying to learn a new offense that is already somewhat crowded. Garrett Wilson is the target hog with the Jets, and even someone like Allen Lazard might be an obstacle to Williams given Rodgers' familiarity, especially early in the season.
Philadelphia Eagles: Will Shipley, RB
I'm not trying to pick on the rookie fourth-round pick, and Shipley will be a find NFL running back as soon as this year if the Eagles need him to, but there has been the building hype that Shipley might be the RB2 behind Saquon Barkley this year and that's probably unlikely. Shipley is all but the designated replacement for Kenneth Gainwell following this year, when Gainwell will become a free agent, but in the meantime Gainwell's veteran advantage should hold off Shipley until 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pat Freiermuth, TE
Freiermuth would be an 80-catch tight end on another team, but the Steelers will make him block often in 2024 to help a Pittsburgh offensive line that is at best in a transition phase while installing two rookie starters. Arthur Smith will probably use Freiermuth like he did Jonnu Smith, which is to say a very low-ADOT role dependent on YAC, which isn't Freiermuth's strength.
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Aiyuk is clearly an excellent player and the 49ers will obviously score a lot of points, but at his current ADP Aiyuk either needs to maintain his obviously unsustainable average of 12.8 yards per target last year or he would need the combo of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to miss substantial time.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet, RB
It's unfortunate for Charbonnet that he landed on the Seahawks, because he's a good player and a starter-caliber running back, but he's not as explosive as starter Kenneth Walker and it's tough for Charbonnet to earn more playing time unless he's first given more playing time, if that makes sense. In other words, Charbonnet isn't explosive enough to compel the Seahawks to give him the ball more on the basis of what he does off the bench, but if Charbonnet were given the chance to start then through that volume he would eventually pile up the kind of numbers that make you look at him more favorably. The problem is the latter scenario can't occur if Walker is healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR
Evans is one of the best receivers in NFL history and might remain one of the NFL's top current receivers in 2024, but age is especially hard on boundary/downfield receivers like Evans has primarily been in the NFL. It would be easy for Evans' 2023 production range to regress to something like 1,100 yards given that it required a career-best season from Baker Mayfield, who's probably unlikely to reach the heights he did in 2023, and Evans turning 31 is unlikely to help.
Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley, WR
Ridley should draw a healthy target count in Tennessee, but efficiency might be elusive in a Tennessee offense that lacks personnel balance and speed in particular. Ridley struggled in a Jacksonville offense that failed to create space for Ridley, who's more of a finesse receiver than a physically dominant one. Ridley was more successful in Atlanta, where the field was spread out, but in Jacksonville and Tennessee there's much more clutter and less space for Ridley to exploit.
Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson, WR
Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler might be the two leading receivers in this offense, because there probably won't be much of an intermediate passing game in Washington. Dotson is neither a vertical burner nor a rugged runner after the catch, so he might be a bit too delicate to fit well with how Washington needs will need to function to set up Jayden Daniels for success. Training camp reports have been less than positive, as well, to the point that it's not clear what role Dotson might have for Washington in 2024.
