DFS Thursday Night Football Breakdown: Bills vs. Dolphins

Week 3 gets underway with a lopsided Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Dolphins. The Bills are a Super Bowl contender, while the Dolphins are 0-2 and have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. This game could get out of hand early, so to spice things up and help hold our interest, we luckily have a DFS slate. Let's dig into each position for the single-game contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Quarterback

This matchup provides a favorable bounce-back spot for Josh Allen ($12,400 DK, $14,200 FD), who didn't record a touchdown against the Jets in Week 2. He threw for just 148 yards but did somewhat salvage his stat line with six carries for 59 yards. With the Bills having built a big lead, Allen eventually found himself resting in the fourth quarter. There is blowout potential again in this game, but that shouldn't shy anyone away from building their lineups around Allen.

If the Dolphins are going to have any chance of keeping things close, they will need Tua Tagovailoa ($9,400 DK, $10,800 FD) to shine. It has been a mixed bag for him out of the gate. After throwing for 114 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Week 1, he compiled 315 yards, two touchdowns and one interception versus the Patriots last week. There is a lot of risk that comes with rolling with Tagovailoa, but hefty passing volume alone makes him at least worth considering.

Running Back

With the Bills' offense moving the ball with ease last season, James Cook ($10,600 DK, $11,600 FD) received plenty of opportunities to score. He cashed them in, finishing with 18 total touchdowns. It has been much of the same this season with three touchdowns through two games. Cook produced three touchdowns over two games against the Dolphins last year, so don't hesitate to deploy him Thursday night. Ray Davis ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD) could see some added opportunities in the fourth quarter if the Bills are blowing out the Dolphins, but even in that scenario last week against the Jets, he turned nine carries into just 24 yards.

De'Von Achane ($10,800 DK, $12,200 FD) is just about game-script proof thanks to his versatile skillset. If the Dolphins are up big in a game, they can use him on the ground to salt away the clock. If they are in a hole, they can get him even more involved in the passing game. Last week, he caught eight of 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown, giving him a receiving touchdown in both of the first two weeks. In two games against the Bills last year, he had 159 rushing yards, 15 receptions, 127 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Even with such a potent offense, the Bills don't have a true No. 1 wide receiver. Keon Coleman ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD) led the way with 112 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but he only caught three passes for 26 yards last week. Khalil Shakir ($6,600 DK, $9,000 FD) was their top option last year, but he has just seven receptions for 76 yards through three games. Joshua Palmer ($4,800 DK, $5,400 FD), who has an average depth of target of 12.1 yards, is also in the mix with a 17.1 percent target share through two games. Coleman has the highest upside of the trio, while Palmer could be a sneaky value option for those looking to balance out their budget.

After a quiet Week 1 performance, Tyreek Hill ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD) caught six of seven targets for 109 yards last week. He is coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign in which he had only three games with at least 100 receiving yards. The Bills did a good job of limiting him last year, holding him to seven receptions for 104 yards over two games. Still, with the Dolphins potentially needing to throw a lot in this game, it's difficult to pass on Hill. He is certainly more appealing than Jaylen Waddle ($8,800 DK, $8,600 FD), who is on pace to see his average yards per reception decline for the third straight season. Waddle is also listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.

At the tight end position, Dalton Kincaid ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD) stands out as the top option for this matchup. He has caught four passes in both of his first two games and scored a touchdown in Week 1. A promising stat is that he already has two red zone targets after given just 10 in 13 games last year. Darren Waller ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD) is unlikely to play for the Dolphins as he continues to deal with a hip injury, and in the first two weeks without him, Dolphins' tight ends Julian Hill ($1,400 DK, $1,200 FD) and Tanner Conner ($800 DK, $1,600 FD) have combined for two receptions for 20 yards on four targets; not much to see there.

Kicker

The Bills' offense has left Matt Prater ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) with plenty of opportunities to shine while filling in for Tyler Bass (hip). Through two games, he has made all six field goal attempts and all five of his extra point attempts. Since the start of the 2023 season, Prater is 11-for-14 on field goal attempts of at least 50 yards.

The Dolphins have turned to Riley Patterson ($4,400 DK, $6,200 FD) with Jason Sanders (hip) on injured reserve. Although he didn't receive an opportunity to contribute in Week 1, he made both of his field goal attempts and all three extra point tries in Week 2. Patterson has bounced around the league, changing teams in every season of his career.

Defense/Special Teams

The Bills ($5,800 DK, $7,400 FD) have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the early going this season. With how turnover-prone Tagovailoa has been, don't be surprised if the Bills pick off at least one of his passes. This is a disastrous matchup for the Dolphins' ($3,000 DK, $6,000 FD) defense, who allowed at least 30 points to the Bills in both of their meetings last year.