The Buccaneers barely held on to victory in Week 1, outlasting the division rival Falcons in a 23-20 victory sealed by a missed 44-yard field goal. Perhaps it required some luck, but at 1-0 the Buccaneers prefer their own position to that of the Texans, who lost in a dreary 14-9 game against the Rams. The Texans will hope to avoid starting the year 0-2, but in the meantime they have to answer the same questions as last year: namely, a shaky offensive line that needs to improve for the Texans to defend home field Monday. The Texans are 2.5-point home favorites, with the over/under at a meager 42.5.
This is the first of two Monday Night Football DFS breakdowns for Week 2, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Houston Texans face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Houston.
QUARTERBACK
Baker Mayfield ($10600 DK, $13200 FD) was predictably gutsy in Week 1, throwing three touchdowns and leading the Buccaneers in rushing against an Atlanta defense that might be among the most improved in the NFL. The continued absences of Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs probably makes this a challenging matchup, however – the Texans can rush the passer, and without Wirfs the Buccaneers might not be currently prepared to withstand that rush.
C.J. Stroud ($9400 DK, $11200 FD) might require a little more benefit of the doubt than Mayfield, because Stroud just could not get anything going against the Rams in Week 1. The Tampa Bay defense isn't necessarily any easier to deal with – Calijah Kancey can split gaps and Vita Vea can crush them, so the Texans can either get those two under control or prepare to watch Stroud get hassled regularly again.
RUNNING BACK
Bucky Irving ($11200 DK, $12200 FD) salvaged a rough Week 1 with a touchdown reception and might be busy as a pass catcher again, particularly with the pass-blocking a question mark and the absence of Godwin/Jalen McMillan creating slack in the passing game. If Irving is laying claim to most of the Buccaneers' backfield targets then it leaves very little utility for Rachaad White ($3200 DK, $5600 FD), or Sean Tucker ($400 DK, $2000 FD) for that matter, but both running backs are good backups at the least.
Nick Chubb ($7000 DK, $8800 FD) was the leader of a four-part backfield – that's too many! – running for 60 yards on 13 carries while Dare Ogunbowale ($1400 DK, $2200 FD) saw 15 snaps and both Woody Marks ($2000 DK, $1800 FD) and Dameon Pierce ($2400 DK, $3800 FD) played seven. Perhaps the Texans were evaluating the four running backs, thus the decision to split such meager usage four ways, but in the meantime it's difficult to assume usage for anyone other than Chubb, and even he was limited to just 28 snaps. Ogunbowale is apparently the RB2 for now, though who knows for how long.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
The Texans chose to hurt themselves in Week 1 by giving fewer snaps to Jayden Higgins ($6400 DK, $3000 FD) and Jaylin Noel ($1200 DK, $1600 FD) than they did Xavier Hutchinson ($2800 DK, $3600 FD) or Justin Watson ($1000 DK, $2600 FD). Like the running back playing time issue previously mentioned, the Texans seem confused about who their actually useful players are.
Perhaps the talented Higgins and Noel will continue to be marginalized for a non-factor like Watson and a likely career backup in Hutchinson, but if they do they should expect more bad results. Nico Collins ($11400 DK, $13000 FD) is the real deal at least, and even with Houston's offensive line issues it's tough to fade Collins on a one-game slate. Tight end Dalton Schultz ($4400 DK, $5200 FD) is probably the other vaguely reliable Houston pass catcher, drawing five targets on 30 snaps in Week 1.
Mike Evans ($10800 DK, $10400 FD) might see a lot of Derek Stingley, and it could prove a memorable matchup if so. The Texans pass rush adds another layer of concern for Evans. Still, in a single-game slate it's not easy to fade Evans while Godwin and McMillan are out. Even if the sledding is tough, the Buccaneers might have little choice but to send a healthy target count Evans' way.
Even so, Emeka Egbuka ($9800 DK, $9800 FD) might have the easier matchup. If the Texans conclude Egbuka is equal to Evans then the Texans might not prioritize Stingley against Evans, but at the very least Egbuka should get nearly all of the viable slot reps, and in the slot the Texans use safety Jalen Pitre to less than great coverage results. Cade Otton ($5000 DK, $4000 FD) is a capable player always worth consideration on a single-game slate, though he and TE2 Payne Durham ($600 DK, $1200 FD) might need to block a little more than usual to help neutralize the Houston edge rush. Sterling Shepard ($3000 DK, $4400 FD) and Devin Culp are justifiable enough as punt plays but have no clear route to usage.
KICKER
Chase McLaughlin ($5200 DK, $6600 FD) struggled in Week 1, missing a PAT and a 44-yard field goal, but he generally has been an excellent kicker the last three years and has plenty of range to strike from beyond 50. If the game is low scoring yet features field goal attempts, either or both of McLaughlin and the similarly excellent Ka'imi Fairbairn ($4800 DK, $7200 FD) could prove cashing picks.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Just as in the case of the kickers, the fact that this game carries a low over/under makes the defenses more interesting than usual. Both defenses project as potentially cash-viable, with Houston ($4000 DK, $6400 FD) boasting a potentially outrageous pass rush while the Buccaneers offensive line is at its weakest. Even so, Tampa Bay ($3800 DK, $6800 FD) could do some damage in their own right, though their pass rush probably is not as good as Houston's.
