This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Last week we looked at home/road and indoors/outdoors splits and the fantasy points per game implications. This week I added the Vegas sides and totals into the data pool to see where we can find a weekly edge on your Defense/Special Teams selections. All stats are from 2013 using FanDuel scoring system.
Some of these we went over last week, but I put them here for reference.
D/ST at home
Overall 8.0 ppg
Home 8.8
Home/Indoors 8.0
Home/Outdoors 9.0
Home/Grass 8.3
Home/Turf 9.5
Home/Indoors/Grass 9.2
Home/Indoors/Turf 7.4
Home/Outdoors/Grass 8.1
Home/Outdoors/Turf 10.9
Home/Outdoors/Turf/Favorite 12.4 (Pool consisted of these teams - BAL, BUF, CIN, DAL, NE, NYG, NYJ, SEA) with an average total 44; average line 6.75
Home/Outdoors/Grass/Favorite 9.5
As you continue to slice the data, you can find where the edge is. Taking home teams who play outdoors that are favored with totals under 45 points.
D/ST on the road
Road 7.4
Road/Indoors 6.9
Road/Outdoors 7.5
Road/Grass 7.7
Road/Turf 6.8
Road/Indoors/Grass 7.8
Road/Indoors/Turf 6.3
Road/Outdoors/Grass 7.7
Road/Outdoors/Turf 7.2
Road/Outdoors/Grass/Favorite 9.9
Road/Outdoors/Turf/Favorite 10.7
Interesting again here, as the data shows if you take a favorite/outdoors chances of getting a higher point total for your D/ST increase.
Let's look at Vegas more:
Favorite 9.9
Dog 6.3
Home/Favorite 10.1
Road/Favorite 9.6
Home/Dog 6.6
Road/Dog 6.2
Over/Under Totals
Average O/U total is 45
38-44.5 O/U – 9.0
45-58 O/U – 7.0
Home (38-44.5) 9.5
Home (45-58) 8.0
Home (38-44.5) Favorite 11.0
Home (45-58) Favorite 9.1
Home (38-44.5) Favorite Outdoors 11.7
How to find the Monster D/ST for the week
In 2013, a D/ST scored 16 points or higher 64 times:
38/64 were at home
32/64 were at home/outdoors
24/32 were at home/outdoors/favorite - 19.9 ppg
Three defenses fit the system this week of Home/Favorite /Outdoors/Total under 45
Washington vs. Jacksonville (-6; 43 O/U)
Washington at home vs. a poor offense and comes in at the cheapest defense on Fanduel ($4500), $2900 on DraftKings, and 3rd cheapest on FantasyAces ($2650).
Tampa Bay vs. St Louis (-6; 37 O/U)
St Louis outdoors on the road as a six-point underdog against a backup QB looks like a juicy matchup for the Bucs, who come very cheap. Tampa Bay comes in at $4900 on Fanduel, $3200 on DraftKings, and $3250 on FantasyAces.
Carolina vs. Detroit (-2.5; 43.5 O/U)
Carolina put up 15.2 ppg at home last year, and I love going against the Lions on a short week having to travel outdoors on grass. This would be my top D/ST in cash games (head-to-head; 50/50). The Panthers cost $5600 on Fanduel, $2900 on DraftKings (LOCK OF THE WEEK); $3700 on FantasyAces.
Others to consider
Cincinnati vs Atlanta (-5; 48.5 O/U)
The Bengals were another beast at home putting up 15.5 ppg (biggest home advantage for D/ST). Cincy faces off against the Falcons at home. Atlanta is coming off an emotionally spent game last week at home against the Saints. Now the Falcons go on the road/outdoors for a non-conference game. A lot of people are going to be on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White after last week, so Cincy could be a top GPP / tournament play. Also, let's not forget this Falcons O-Line is not 100 percent and can be exploited.
Buffalo vs. Miami (Pick; 42.5 O/U)
Most people don't realize that the Bills put up 11.8 fantasy points per game at home last year, with a season high 21 against the Dolphins. This defensive front for the Bills might be the best in football, and I think the Dolphins come in a bit flat here. While the Bills had an emotional road win at Chicago, I think the news of the team staying in Buffalo with new ownership will have the crowd in a frenzy.
Potential Traps
San Francisco vs Chicago (-7; O/U 48.5) – This look like a trap game with a very high total. At least one of the Bears receivers could be ruled out. I could see this game going well under the total as the Bears on the road cannot afford to have Jay Cutler airing it out and making mistakes. We saw how the Cowboys were able to run the ball on San Francisco last week. I can see the Niners winning a close one 23-20.
Green Bay vs. NY Jets (-8; O/U 46) – On the opposite end of the spectrum from the Niners/Bears tilt, something tells me this game is going to be way over the total. Getting this at 46 points is low, considering last year the Packers average total at home was 47. Green Bay's D/ST only avgeraged six fantasy points in eight home games last year. I think the Packers open it up early against a banged up Jets secondary. This has a feel for 34-24.
Houston at Oakland (-3; 39.5 O/U) – There were only six games last year that fit this profile (road favorite/total under 40), and the average D/ST output was 8.8 points. You need to find situations in which your D/ST can get at least 12 points, or preferably you want to hit on those 2-3 defenses that can get 16 points or higher. People are going to look at the total and consider what J.J. Watt did last week before jumping all over the Texans. Tthis small line and total means that Vegas feels both teams will look to keep the ball on the ground and win with the kicking game.
Tennessee vs. Dallas (-3.5; 49 O/U) – Well, we saw last week that this Cowboys defense may not be as bad as people think. You should be able to run on them, but passing is still going to require some work. People are going to jump on the Titans because of Tony Romo's turnover-prone ways, but it would not shock me if Dallas pulls the upset here. The teams who fit this profile (Home/Favorite/Outdoors/Grass/Total >44) last year were the Eagles, Broncos, and Packers - not a team like the Titans.
