Beating the Book: Steelers Beat Packers, 49ers Bounce Back + Full Week 10 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Beating the Book!

I don't want to jinx anything, but it finally feels like we're back on track after hitting rock-bottom a few weeks ago. Don't let us get hot, that's all I'm saying. Coming off of a 10-4 Week 9, we're now 19-10-1 ATS over the last two weeks. This past week included a 4-1 mark in the Circa Million contest, where we used the Chiefs, Bengals, Colts, Browns and… Saints. Special shoutout to Blake Grupe for clanking a late field goal off the upright that would've given us the cover and a perfect week. 

Nonetheless, now is not the time for complaining. Rather, it's time to lock in on the 14-game board for Week 10, which begins, for some reason, with Panthers-Bears on Thursday night. That's our first of six games holding a total under 40.0 points in what's become a weekly trend this season.

The biggest favorite of the week? The Dallas Cowboys, who are gifting the Giants 16.0 points as they welcome them to Dallas with Daniel Jones done for the season. The Bills are 7.5-point favorites at home against Denver, while the Bengals (-6.5), Ravens (-6.0) and Seahawks (-6.0) are the other notable favorites.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 10-4 ATS; 10-4 SU; best bet won (CIN -2.0)

On the season: 63-69-4 ATS, 80-56 SU; 6-3 best bet

Best calls of Week 9:

• If Philadelphia can get the turnovers under control, I really like this spot. Dallas absolutely has the talent to win, but the Cowboys are yet to prove that they can beat a truly elite opponent. The Chargers, who they only beat by a field goal in Week 7, do not count. Give me the Eagles to show up in a big spot and get the cover at home.
• If you think Levis can burn the Steelers deep the same way he did the Falcons' secondary, then Tennessee should have a good chance to pull the road upset. But I tend to think some regression will hit the rookie this week, so I'll take the Steelers to get back to what they do best: finding ways to grind out ugly wins.

Worst calls of Week 9:

• This is a slightly bigger number than I'd like given Atlanta's propensity for playing down to its competition, but it's hard to imagine the Falcons coming out flat and unprepared against a rookie QB two weeks in a row.
• Stafford or no Stafford, the Rams are better-coached and have better skill position players than Green Bay, which sold off one of its best defenders in Rasul Douglas at the deadline. Frankly, the Packers shouldn't be giving points to anyone right now – even Brett Rypien.

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Thursday Night Football

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Coming in red-hot off of Titans-Steelers last week, the schedule-makers have blessed us with a monster showdown in Week 10. Will Justin Fields return for the Bears? He might. He also might not. As of right now, it's looking pretty unlikely after the Bears officially listed him as doubtful on Wednesday afternoon.

The Bears are coming off of a loss to the Saints, but they get plenty of credit for hanging around and only losing by a touchdown despite a 5-to-0 turnover margin. The Bears out-gained New Orleans by 67 yards, averaged nearly a full yard more per-play and completely neutralized the Saints' rushing attack. Had it not been for the three picks, two fumbles and eight costly penalties, the Bears would've had a chance to win outright.

All of this is to say, Chicago appears to be making progress under Bagent and now returns home to face a one-win team whose quarterback threw two pick-sixes to the same guy last week. On paper, I think the Panthers are still the better team, but this is a game Chicago should be able to win at home by controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bears are – extremely quietly – up to No. 2 in the NFL in rushing EPA and No. 4 in rushing defense (Carolina ranks 29th).

Give me the Bears to win and narrowly cover.

The pick: Bears 21 – Panthers 17

Sunday Germany Game

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+1.5)

The Patriots lost yet another incredibly sad game Sunday against Washington and now head over to Germany to face off against Gardner Minshew. The Colts' defense has been hemorrhaging points lately, but it allowed only 13 to the Panthers in Week 9, thanks in part to three picks from Bryce Young. Recent history suggests this is still a unit that can be exploited, but I'm not sure I trust the Pats to do so.

While the Patriots rallied back from a 10-0 hole to lead at halftime against Washington, the offense cratered in the second half and New England consistently failed to convert third downs (3-of-12). Meanwhile, the Commanders handed the Pats a fumble deep in their own territory, and Sam Howell threw a pick in the end zone, and it still wasn't enough to give the Patriots an edge.

This Colts team is extremely volatile and will likely find a way to mess this up, but I can't side with the Pats right now.

The pick: Colts 24 – Patriots 21

Sunday Early Games

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.0)

This is a battle of the two best defenses in the NFL – by a wide margin – so it makes sense that the total is sitting at 37.5. The Ravens have entered wait, are they the best team in the NFL? territory over the last few weeks, taking down the Lions, Cardinals and Seahawks by a combined score of 106-33. 

Cleveland's offense has been considerably shakier, but the Browns did get Deshaun Watson back last week for a nice warm-up game against the moribund Arizona Cardinals. I don't love what I've seen from Watson this season, so I'm hesitant to trust him against a Baltimore defense allowing just 170.7 passing yards per game. However, Cleveland has been even more stingy (145.0 YPG) and has allowed just six passing touchdowns on the year.

Ultimately, I think we get a predictably low-scoring game that feels very much like a classic AFC North battle. Give me the Ravens to win, but I'll take Cleveland to keep it close and cover the spread.

The pick: Ravens 21 – Browns 17

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

Before bed tonight, I'll be praying that this number holds at 6.5 in the Circa Million contest for Week 10. The Bengals feel like they're officially Back after dominant wins over San Francisco and Buffalo in back-to-back weeks. Houston continues to be one of the biggest surprises of the season, but this should be a good spot for Cincinnati at home.

While C.J. Stroud is clearly capable of keeping the Texans in any game, the Bengals are a considerably tougher challenge than the Buccaneers' 28th-ranked pass defense. Cincy is susceptible to big plays, but the Bengals' defense has 11 interceptions and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in QB hurry percentage.

Stroud does enough to make this a fun, back-and-forth game, but Cincinnati is rolling right now. We're not picking against Joe Burrow at home.

The pick: Bengals 30 – Texans 21

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.0)

Oh boy. Here we go. A massive, all-eyes-on-us regular season game is unfamiliar territory for Jags Nation. It goes without saying that this is a huge opportunity for Jacksonville to make a statement and officially throw its hat in the ring in the best team in the AFC conversation. Over the last five weeks, the Jags have done nothing but take care of business, but this would be the signature win that vaults Jacksonville from fun young team into true contender status. 

Both teams are coming off of a bye, and that may be bigger for San Francisco as the week off likely means Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams will be back in the mix. That's very bad news for the Jags, though their defense has held up remarkably well thus far.

Offensively, the Jaguars have relied on a balanced passing attack and a heavy dose of Travis Etienne throughout their five-game winning streak. While Etienne has been a fantasy monster, the underlying numbers indicate that the Jags are one of the least-efficient running teams in the league. Coming into the week, the Jags are 31st in rushing EPA. The Niners haven't been overly dominant against the run, compared to past seasons, but this is far from a plus matchup for Etienne.

For me, this game will come down to turnovers. The Jags lead the NFL with 18 takeaways, but they tend to commit two or three of their own each week. With an extra week to prepare, I think we see a better, more in-control version of Brock Purdy.

As a card-carrying Jags' fan I need to caution that this is a classic hedging my mental health pick, but I do think this is the spot where the 49ers bounce back.

The pick: 49ers 28 – Jaguars 24

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Well, well, well. I would love to make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week, but we have a couple of games below that may fit that criteria even more closely. Last week, the Saints escaped with a seven-point win over the Bears, but it was anything but convincing. Despite forcing five Chicago turnovers (and not committing any of their own), New Orleans failed to take full control of the game at any point. The Saints were out-gained by Chicago and managed only 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and 6.1 yards per pass.

We know the Saints profile as the better team, but I'm not sure we can fully trust them on the road against Joshua Dobbs, who will actually know the plays this week. Give me the Saints to win a bizarre, close game, but the Vikings get the cover.

The pick: Saints 26 – Vikings 24

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0)

Green Bay snapped an ugly, four-game losing streak at home against the depleted Rams last week, but I'm not reading too much into that 20-3 win. The Packers once again got off to a slow start, failing to come away with points on six of their first seven drives. Sluggish starts have plagued Green Bay all season, and while the Steelers aren't exactly an opponent that runs away with games, their top-10 defense will prove to be a much, much tougher test.

The re-emergence of a full-capacity Aaron Jones does worry me. But outside of Jones, the Packers' offense is devoid of high-level weapons. We're fully expecting Pittsburgh to make this more difficult than it needs to be, but we'll trust the Steelers' defense to win and cover at home.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Packers 13

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0)

This is another game in Stay-Away of the Week territory. The Bucs are coming off of a crushing loss to Houston in which the secondary gave up big play after big play (and three 100-yard receivers!) to C.J. Stroud in the second half. But the Bucs' offense did its job, and even Rachaad White did the unthinkable and had a decent day. Still, Tampa Bay is among the worst running teams in the league, while Tennessee has remained above-league-average in that department. 

This game will come down to which quarterback can play a better, cleaner game. Will Levis has shown plenty of encouraging signs over the last two weeks, but he's still an inexperienced rookie. Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, is… well, Baker Mayfield. 

This is truly a toss-up game as the number indicates. Cautiously, we'll roll with the better-coached team in Tennessee to grind out a narrow win and send Tampa to its fifth straight loss.

The pick: Titans 23 – Buccaneers 20

Sunday Afternoon Games

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+1.0)

Here we go again with the Falcons, who may have taken the belt from the Chargers as the NFL's least-trustworthy team. After getting embarrassed by Will Levis in Week 8, Atlanta found a way to sink even lower by losing to a quarterback who joined the team four days before the game. We knew Arthur Smith was a bad coach, but those are two of the worst back-to-back losses in recent memory.

The Falcons find themselves in a similarly tricky spot this week as they head out to Arizona to face the one-win Cardinals. Out is Clayton Tune and in is Kyler Murray, who will make his return after tearing his ACL in Week 11 last season. It's fair to question how effective Murray will be after such a long layoff, but he's clearly a significant upgrade over Tune. 

There's no team we've been more wrong on a weekly basis this season than the Falcons. I truly think this is the most difficult pick I've had to make all season. Atlanta cannot be trusted under any circumstances, but the Cardinals' defense is a complete disaster. On paper, this should be a good spot for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Ultimately, though, I just can't do it anymore. The Falcons are in betting jail until further notice.

The pick: Cardinals 20 – Falcons 17

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.0)

Over the last three days, this line has shifted from Chargers -1.0 all the way to Detroit -3.0. That's a considerable swing, especially after the Chargers rolled to a win over the Jets on Monday night. To be fair, it wasn't the prettiest victory, but the Jets' defense deserves most of the credit for slowing down Justin Herbert.

The Chargers now return home to face a Lions team coming off of a bye and expecting to get David Montgomery back. The Lions have been the far more consistent team this season, but the Chargers seem to be figuring some things out on defense. The run-stopping is much-improved, though the Chargers' secondary remains an area of weakness. 

Detroit is the better team, and the better-coached team, but 3.0 points feels a bit steep considering I still value Herbert at least one tier ahead of Jared Goff.

Lions win a very Chargers-y shootout, but LA covers.

The pick: Lions 33 – Chargers 31

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16.0)

Not much to say here. The Giants' season was already on the brink, and the loss of Daniel Jones to a torn ACL was the final nail in the coffin. New York has already confirmed that it'll be Tommy DeVito at quarterback once again. It goes without saying that 16.0 points is a lot of points. But these are the situations the Cowboys seem to thrive in. Four of their five wins this season have come by at least 20 points, including a 40-0 drubbing of the Giants in Week 1. Home favorites of at least 12.0 points this season are 5-1 ATS. 

We're taking the Cowboys to take care of business early and hold off a late cover.

The pick: Cowboys 34 – Giants 13

Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6.0)

Seattle is coming off of a 37-3 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens last week, and while they're still 2-2 in their last four games, Geno Smith and the offense have looked shaky. Seattle has multiple turnovers in all four of those games and is averaging just 15.0 points per game in that span. Seattle's ground game has taken a step back, and they've struggled in the red zone, as well as converting third downs. For the season, the Seahawks are 30-of-94 on third down (31.9%) – good for 30th in the NFL.

The Commanders, meanwhile, are an enigma from week to week, but they tend to play up – or down – to their competition. Seattle is the better team and should be able to take care of business at home, but 6.0 points is too big of a number for me – especially considering Washington is 4-0 ATS as a road dog this season.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Commanders 23

Sunday Night Football

New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.0)

Full disclosure: I have no read on this game. I'm not sure how anyone could at this point. The Raiders got the predictable post-despised-coach-firing bump a week ago, but who knows how long that will last. On the other side, the Jets' defense continues to look like an elite unit, but the offense was a complete disaster on Monday night against the Chargers.

For the Jets to win, they'll probably need to force at least two turnovers, which is certainly possible against an inexperienced quarterback in Aidan O'Connell. They'll also need Zach Wilson to protect the ball – something he did not do Monday night.

The Maxx Crosby Factor scares me, but I have faith that New York can do enough to limit O'Connell and a rejuvenated Josh Jacobs. The Raiders are an impossible team to evaluate right now. They played well in Game 1 of the Antonio Pierce Era, but they also faced a best-case-scenario opponent in the Giants.

In what feels like a complete toss-up, I'll side with the Jets' defense.

The pick: Jets 20 - Raiders 17

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

The Bills' stock is at an all-time low right now, and yet Buffalo is still sitting at 5-4. Had the Bills not found a way to beat the Giants in Week 6 we'd be in a full-on panic. Nonetheless, this feels like a must-win for Buffalo to keep pace in the just-as-competitive-as-we-expected AFC. 

Denver has shown signs of progress on defense and comes in well-rested off of a bye, but I like this as a get-right spot for the Bills at home. They struggled to put away Tampa Bay in a similar situation a couple weeks ago, but I'm not ready to trust this Broncos team – even after a convincing win over Kansas City.

Denver hangs tough and Josh Allen extends his interception streak to six games, but the Bills get back on track and cover at home.

The pick: Bills 30 – Broncos 21