Beating the Book: Niners Handle Business, Bills Over Chiefs + Full NFL Divisional Round ATS Picks

Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of Beating the Book!

After a fittingly wild Super Wild Card Weekend, the NFL postseason field has been whittled down to eight teams.

Of course, the 1-seeds in each conference are back in action this weekend after a Round 1 bye. As of publication, both Baltimore and San Francisco are sitting as 9.5 favorites over Houston and Green Bay, respectively. Those games will fill the Saturday slate, while Buccaneers-Lions and Chiefs-Bills get the Sunday billing.

Coming off of a convincing win over the reeling Eagles, the Bucs are 6.5-point road dogs in Detroit, while the Chiefs are 2.5-point dogs in Buffalo.

You can find my thoughts on those games, as well as the entire Divisional Around slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 2-4 ATS; 2-4 SU; best bet won (LAR +3.0)

On the season: 135-135-8 ATS, 176-102 SU; 13-6 best bet

Best calls of Super Wild Card Weekend:

• We'll roll with the Bills to grind out another up-and-down win at home to set up another showdown with Kansas City in the Divisional Round.

Worst calls of Super Wild Card Weekend:

• It'll be a popular pick this week, but I lean toward the Browns to limit Stroud, contain an improved Houston running game and win what will likely be a close game on the road.
• At the end of the day, the Cowboys' margin for error should be relatively large against a defense that I still don't trust. Believe me, as I sit here in Milwaukee typing this, I would love to be wrong, but I don't see Dallas getting tripped up right out of the gate.

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Saturday Games

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

The Texans were one of two teams to pile up 40-plus points in a Super Wild Card Weekend upset, and they did so against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They'll now face an even stiffer test against the league's best defensive unit, which held Houston to nine points and just 265 total yards during the regular season. That was all the way back in Week 1, however, and obviously the Texans, as well as C.J. Stroud, have grown significantly since then.

On paper, this is a matchup the Ravens' defense should be able to control, but Stroud is playing at such a high level that the Texans have to be considered a live dog. Even with two of his top three receivers on IR, Stroud has proven that he can elevate the talent around him, beginning with Nico Collins, who's turned into one of the better all-around pass-catchers in the NFL this season.

Last week, Houston did most of its damage through the air – a pair of pick-sixes also helped – but the Texans' running game has improved since mid-season, and it will be interesting to note if Houston can get Devin Singletary going early on. Chances are, though, the Texans will need to rely on Stroud's arm to keep them in the game, which certainly hasn't been a bad bet.

Meanwhile, Baltimore enters the Divisional Round riding a six-game winning streak in games in which they've played their starters. That span includes wins over the Rams, Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins in consecutive weeks. It's looking more and more likely that Baltimroe could get Mark Andrews back from IR, which would provide a huge boost to an offense that's managed just fine without him.

Baltimore has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game this season, and while Houston is one of the league's better defenses against the run, the Ravens present a unique challenge with the best running quarterback in the game. I expect Lamar Jackson to continue to pick his spots wisely, as he's done all year, but it's possible the Ravens unleash him to a larger degree than we saw for much of the regular season.

Ultimately, this is a game the Ravens should be able to win comfortably at home, provided they take care of the ball – they've turned it over at least twice in all four losses – and limit the chunk plays that Houston was able to rip off against Cleveland.

With that said, the Texans have proven time and again that they can hang with just about anyone, so while I like Baltimore to win outright, we'll roll with Houston to cover the 9.5 and push Lamar to just 1-4 ATS as a playoff home favorite in his career.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Texans 20

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Two weeks ago, I picked the Bears to beat the Packers straight up. Last week, I predicted a Cowboys win and cover. Suffice it to say this Green Bay team has proven me wrong. Do I still have questions about the viability of the defense? Yes, absolutely. But Jordan Love suddenly feels like he's on the fast-track to stardom, and the Packers' offense has been on a multi-week heater since suffering back-to-back terrible losses to the Giants and Bucs late in the regular season.

While Green Bay may be devoid of big-name playmakers other than Aaron Jones, who completely changes their offense when he's right, the Packers' unpredictability is what makes them difficult to defend. Jones jump-starting the running game has certainly helped, but Green Bay has a plethora of weapons for Love to choose from in the passing game.

That was on full display last week in Dallas, when Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks were responsible for 226 yards and Green Bay's three receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Packers' most consistent threat this season, Jayden Reed, did not have a single catch on three targets. Imagine if someone told you Green Bay would put 48 points on Dallas while getting almost nothing from their star rookie. Blasphemy.

The question, of course, is whether Green Bay can replicate that kind of offensive performance against a defense laden with talent at all three levels. On both sides, the Packers played a near-perfect game last week before they took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. They'll need to do the same this week, including forcing at least one or two key turnovers to keep the Niners' offense in check.

For Green Bay, the other side of the ball is where my concerns lie. Credit to Joe Barry for stifling the Vikings, Bears and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, but the Niners present a new level of physicality and playmaking at every position. "Stopping" Christian McCaffrey probably isn't realistic, but limiting the Niners' running game and forcing Brock Purdy to beat them is the recipe for success. That's not to suggest Purdy isn't capable, but if you're picking your battles with San Francisco, you'd rather see if Purdy is up to the task rather than allowing Trent Wiliams and Co. to road-grate their way to a win.

If the Packers are able to continue running the ball like they have the last few weeks, they can absolutely hang around. No one is suggesting San Francisco is a plus-matchup, but it ranks 20th in rush defense EPA this season and has surrendered big games to the likes of Cincinnati, Cleveland and, most recently, Arizona, which ran for over 230 yards on the Niners in Week 15. 

To me, that's a relatively big if, and one that ultimately pushes me away from the Green Bay side. By no means do I expect the Packers to get blown out, but it's hard to imagine them playing a second consecutive near-perfect game on the road. As I've written all season, part of what makes the Niners so dangerous is they can play a B-level game and still win comfortably. That's the benefit of having such a wealth of playmakers on both sides. 

Packers hang around and make this a game, but we're taking the Niners to win by two scores.

The pick: 49ers 35 – Packers 24

Sunday Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

First and foremost, we need to take a moment to recognize that either the Lions – the Detroit Lions – or Baker Mayfield will be playing in the NFC Championship Game. Wild times.

Credit to the Lions for holding off the Rams last week in a game I thought LA would be able to steal on the road. Detroit's defense held strong in the second half, limiting the Rams to just a pair of field goals after halftime. With Tampa Bay coming to town, the Lions are well-positioned to advance to the NFC Title Game, but the Bucs proved last week that they need to be taken seriously, regardless of how much of a disaster the Eagles may be. 

With that said, it's hard not to like this spot for Detroit. Two weeks ago, the Bucs managed nine points in a do-or-die game against Carolina. The week prior, they were blown out at home by the Saints. What Tampa Bay did to Philly on Monday night was impressive, but for the most part that's not who the Bucs have been this season. On balance, they're a league-average offense that's mostly struggled to move the ball on the ground against good teams.

While the Lions' defense has had its slip-ups, Detroit has been fantastic at stopping the run of late, ceding fewer than 90 yards to its last five opponents, including just 68 to the Rams last week and 61 to Dallas in Week 17. When these teams met in Tampa back in Week 6, The Bucs managed just 46 rushing yards while allowing Jared Goff to throw for 380. Granted, Detroit also struggled to run on Tampa's excellent defensive front, but Jahmyr Gibbs was inactive and David Montgomery was banged up and only carried the ball six times.

With Montgomery and Gibbs rolling, the Lions' offense is among the toughest to slow down in the NFL. The Bucs should be able to muck up the ground game, as usual, meaning the key will be getting after Jared Goff and forcing him into high-pressure decisions. During the regular season, Tampa blitzed at the NFL's third-highest rate, and we should expect Todd Bowles to do all he can to make Goff uncomfortable.

At the end of the day, that's easier said than done. Despite the high blitz rate, Tampa Bay still hemorrhaged yards to opposing QBs this season while ranking 21st in pass defense EPA.

As long as we don't get a Jared Goff disaster game – in the realm of possibility! – this is a game Detroit should be able to slow down and control at home. I don't love this one, but give me Detroit to win by a touchdown.

The pick: Lions 27 – Buccaneers 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Here we go. It's not a coincidence that the schedule-makers put this game in the Sunday night primetime slot. Of course, Chiefs-Bills is by no means a surprising matchup in the AFC's final four, but the path both teams took to get to this stage was not what most imagined.

All season, we've been waiting for the Chiefs' offense to kick into a familiar high gear and it just… hasn't happened. KC closed the regular season as the 15th-highest-scoring team in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes tossing 28 touchdowns to a career-high 17 picks. The emergence of Rashee Rice has helped keep the Chiefs afloat, but the rookie second-rounder and Travis Kelce are Mahomes' only trusted targets in a stable of pass-catchers that have been plagued by drops, inconsistency and a lack of innate chemistry.

The good news for Kansas City is the defense has rounded into form as one of the best in the NFL – particularly against the pass. The Chiefs finished the year No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 4 in defensive EPA. While the offense has sputtered, KC has only been out-gained four times this season – that includes Week 18 when Mahomes, Kelce and several other key players rested.

Like Kansas City, Buffalo has had a very strange season, and at one point it appeared likely that they would miss the playoffs altogether. Since tumbling to 6-6 with a Week 12 OT loss in Philly, the Bills have ripped off six straight wins, including victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins. It hasn't been pretty, but the Bills were able to more than salvage their season and earn the right to welcome the Chiefs to Buffalo, where it's projected to be 22 degrees with sustained wind at kickoff.

Turnover sprees continue to plague the Bills, but they've been a balanced offense down the stretch, turning to James Cook and Josh Allen to carry them to nearly 160 rushing yards per game since Week 9. Controlling the ground game will be key in this matchup – KC's secondary has been elite, but the run defense is below league average. 

On the other side of the ball, we have to acknowledge the Bills' injury report, which is a disaster as of publication. We'll see how things progress over the next few days, but it's possible Buffalo could be without multiple starters at lineback and in the secondary on top of losing Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White to season-ending injuries earlier in the year.

To me, this is the 50/50 game of all 50/50 games. No result would surprise me. We don't do a Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week in the playoffs, but if we did, this would be it. On one hand, I'm terrified to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs – especially as an underdog (7-3 SU, 8-1-1- ATS as a dog in his career). On the other, I don't think the Chiefs have "fixed" anything offensively, and even with Buffalo's injuries I don't see KC piling up points.

No matter what, this should be a close game and one that probably isn't remotely decided until late in the fourth quarter. Give me Buffalo to kick a game-winning field goal to win by three and pull off the narrow cover.

The pick: Bills 23 – Chiefs 20