Beating the Book: NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 10 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

After stringing together a few positive weeks in a row, things came crashing down in Week 9, as we went just 4-10 ATS behind some of our worst picks of the season. The week began with an ill-fated decision to grab points with the Dolphins – the Miami Dolphins – on Thursday night, which set the tone for an underwhelming week.

Nevertheless, we're back at it for Week 10, which is shaping up to be one of the more competitive NFL betting slates of the season.

The Bills, laying 9.5 in Miami, are currently the biggest favorite of the week, while the Broncos have swelled to 9.5-point favorites over Vegas on Thursday night. We'll be treated to a pair of excellent primetime games to close out the week, as the Steelers head out west to take on the Chargers on Sunday night, while the Packers – fresh off of arguably their worst loss of the Matt LaFleur era – welcome the Eagles to Lambeau Field on Monday night.

You can find my thoughts on those games, and the entire Week 10 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 9:

• Panthers +13.5 at Packers: Green Bay loves playing down to competition, and for the second time this season, the Packers took a SU loss as a big favorite.
• Falcons +5.5 at Patriots: One of the few things we got right this week was predicting the Falcons to show up after a disaster game against Miami in Week 8.

Worst calls of Week 9:

• Commanders +3.0 vs. Seahawks: One of a handful of picks that were doomed from the start. Washington never stood a chance after giving up 31 points in the first half.
• Saints +14.5 at Rams: As expected, the Rams' defense took care of business in Tyler Shough's first start. We may have underestimated just how easy of a day it would be for the Rams' offense.

Last week: 4-10 ATS; 8-6 SU; best bet lost (DET -8.5)

On the season: 72-61-2 ATS; 91-44-1 SU; 5-4 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -9.5

Total: 42.5

Thursday Night Football brings us a matchup between the first and last place teams in the AFC West. After a 1-2 start, the Broncos have now ripped off six straight wins, most recently outlasting Davis Mills and the Texans in one of the most predictable defensive battles of all time.

Credit to the Broncos for winning their third game by three points or less in the last four weeks, but even against a great defense in Houston, it's tough to ignore the fits and starts the Denver offense has gone through this season. The highs – 44 points against Dallas; The Fourth Quarter against the Giants – have been high, but Denver seems to get stuck in prolonged ruts on a weekly basis against quality defenses. In Week 9, the Broncos punted or committed a turnover on 10 of 13 total drives. 

The good news is the Las Vegas Raiders are not, in fact, a quality defense. After holding the Jags to six points through three quarters last week, Vegas promptly gave up 24 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, allowing four consecutive scoring drives of at least eight plays. The Raiders have held up fairly well against the run (13th in EPA per rush), but they rank 23rd in success rate, 23rd in EPA per play and 25th in EPA per pass. 

On the other side, this will be a major step up in class for Geno Smith and Co. going up against a top three defense. The Broncos won't have Patrick Surtain, but the defensive line should be able to get after the imminently sack-able Geno Smith. Through nine games, the Broncos have racked up 40 sacks – 12 more than any other team.

The return of Brock Bowers does provide significantly more upside for the Raiders' offense, but the wide receiver group is even thinner now with Jakobi Meyers heading to Jacksonville. I won't be surprised if the Broncos' offense comes out flat, but this is another game they can win on defense.

The pick: Broncos 27 – Raiders 17

Sunday NFL Berlin Game

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -6.5

Total: 48.0

The NFL heads to Berlin this week with what should actually be a fun game, especially relative to what our European friends have had to sit through so far this season.

After a complete no-show against Miami in Week 8, the Falcons nearly pulled off an upset win over New England last week – at the very least that game should've gone to overtime – but now sit at 3-5 and on the brink of fading out of the postseason picture.

Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off of a true disaster game at Pittsburgh in which they were dominated in the trenches, turned the ball over six times and went seven consecutive drives without a touchdown against what appeared to be a vulnerable defense. Still, the Colts were able to make it a one-score game late and out-gained the Steelers 368 to 225 on the day. Indy's defense held the Steelers to 3.7 yards per play and limited Jaylen Warren to 31 yards on 16 carries.

Realistically, the Colts may have been running a little too hot offensively and were probably due for a what else could go wrong? type of game. I didn't think it would happen in that spot, but it doesn't really change how I look at this team going forward. If anything, my concerns for Indy lied on the defensive side, but the Colts made a massive move on Tuesday, sending a pair of first round picks – plus AD Mitchell – to the Jets for Sauce Gardner. Even if it's a soft entry for Gardner this week, he's a massive upgrade in the secondary with Charvarius Ward on IR.

These overseas games can be a little whacky, for lack of a better term, but we're not jumping off of the Colts after one letdown week.

The pick: Colts 27 – Falcons 20

Sunday Early Slate

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -5.5

Total: 40.5

One week after taking a 40-9 beatdown on the chin against Buffalo, the Panthers walked into Lambeau Field and picked up a SU win as a 13.5-point underdog. It was the biggest SU upset of the season and the biggest since 2023.

Clearly, Carolina has found something with its Rico Dowdle Raid offense, but the defense deserves plenty of credit for forcing a pair of key turnovers and holding Green Bay to just one touchdown on five red zone trips. If you had told me Bryce Young would finish 11-of-20 for 102 yards and a pick, I don't think I would have said, "Nice, Carolina must have won that game."

At the end of the day, the Panthers are still a very difficult evaluation. Young has been serviceable but is far from the reason the Panthers are sitting at 5-4. The wins have Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, New York and Green Bay. Three of their four losses have been blowouts, while the other (Arizona in Week 2) was a borderline-blowout until Carolina rallied back late in the fourth quarter. 

The lack of a reliable passing game is what will likely prevent the Panthers from truly contending for a playoff spot, but the ground game is up to sixth in EPA per rush.

This all sets up an interesting matchup against the 1-7 Saints, who've moved on to Tyler Shough and sent Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks at the deadline. Clearly, New Orleans is focused on the future, but it's not a team I view as a complete pushover. Predictably, the Saints offense struggled in LA last week, but the defense – a top-10 unit against the rush – is still very capable of keeping them in games against shakier teams.

Carolina has all of the momentum right now, and they should win this game at home, but we'll side with the Saints to do enough defensively to cover the 5.5. The Panthers are 0-10 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, dating back to 2021.

The pick: Panthers 20 – Saints 17

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3.5

Total: 47.5

After taking a loss to the 49ers in Week 9, the Giants' season is essentially cooked, but this is still a team that has to be taken seriously on a weekly basis. As usual, New York was able to keep the game close for three quarters before allowing back-to-back touchdown drives in the fourth. Still, the Giants put up a respectable 5.3 yards per play, while Jaxson Dart made the most of a limited offense that wasn't able to run the ball effectively without Cam Skattebo.

The Bears enter Week 10 at 5-3 coming off of perhaps the worst collective defensive game in NFL history. A few scattered notes from Chicago's 47-42 victory:

• The two teams combined for 1,071 yards of total offense and 56 first downs
• Chicago's 576 yards were its most in any game since 1980
• The Bengals became the first team ever to allow at least 500 yards, at least 38 points and not force a turnover in back-to-back games
• The Bengals also became the first team since 1966 to score at latest 38 points in back-to-back games and lose both teams
• Cincinnati returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown
• There was one punt over the final 18 possessions of the game
• Cincinnati committed three turnovers and missed a field goal in the fourth quarter alone
• Chicago led 41-27 with 1:45 remaining
• For the season, Cincinnati is now the second-worst defense by DVOA since 1978

Alright, so that's just a brief overview of the defensive atrocities that were committed last week. Most of the heat will fall on Cincy, but believe me, the Bears' defense was just as bad. Offensively, though, Chicago continued to run the ball well with Kyle Monangai filling in for the injured D'Andre Swift.

The running game will be the key this week against a Giants defense that's quietly allowed 33, 38 and 34 points in its last three games. On the season, New York is down to 29th in EPA per play and dead-last in EPA per rush.

Without Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, every game is going to be an uphill battle for the Giants, but the Bears' defense (30th in success rate) should provide some opportunities. We'll side with Chicago to win outright, but the Giants can cover the 3.5.

The pick: Bears 27 – Giants 24

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Spread: Jaguars -1.5

Total: 37.5

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. Back in Week 3, Jacksonville took the first matchup 17-10 in extremely AFC South fashion, as both teams combined for five turnovers in the fourth quarter alone.

Since then, the Jags have waffled between looking like a playoff team and looking like the Jags of old, while Houston has had to lean on its defense to hang around week-to-week. Offensively, the Texans have shown a few flashes, but those have mostly come against either bad teams (Tennessee) or vastly depleted defenses (Baltimore, San Francisco).

The Niners game felt like a big step in the right direction for C.J. Stroud, but he was knocked out of last week's loss to Denver early in the second quarter with a concussion. As of publication, it's unclear if Stroud will be cleared, but Houston turning to Davis Mills feels like the most likely outcome. Mills is a reasonable game-manager, but he's unlikely to elevate the league's 29th-best offense by success rate.

On the other side, Jacksonville came out of its bye with an overtime win over the Raiders. After a slow start, the Jags moved the ball at will in the fourth quarter, but this is still the level of offense – and Trevor Lawrence the level of quarterback – that you're hesitant to trust against a defense like Houston's

Keep a close eye on the injury report for the Jags, who could be without Brian Thomas, Dyami Brown, Devin Lloyd, Jourdan Lewis and Ezra Cleveland, in addition to Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange. The Jags did trade for Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, however, bringing some much-needed stability to a banged-up and wildly inconsistent group of pass-catchers.

This is very much in stay-away territory for me, but we'll side with the Texans' defense to force at least two turnovers and keep Houston alive in the AFC playoff race.

The pick: Texans 23 – Jaguars 20

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Bills -9.5

Total: 49.5

It's tough to discern how much to take away from another regular-season win over the Chiefs, but at the very least the Bills appear to have their confidence back after some uncharacteristic losses to the Pats and Falcons last month. Buffalo's defense played its best game of the season, holding Patrick Mahomes under a 50% completion rate and repeatedly slamming the door shut on KC's attempts to rally back in the second half.

Buffalo now gets a much friendlier matchup against the reeling Miami Dolphins, who continue to employ Mike McDaniel but parted ways with GM Chris Grier following last week's loss to the Ravens. After selling off Jaelan Phillips before the deadline, Miami has seemingly accepted another lost season.

Even on the road, this feels like it should be a smash spot for the Bills. Miami will be able to test that run defense, but if Buffalo plays at anywhere near the level of last week, this could get ugly in a hurry. 

The pick: Bills 30 – Dolphins 17

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Ravens -4.5

Total: 47.5

The Ravens come into this game on extended rest after taking care of business against the Dolphins on Thursday night. With Lamar Jackson back in the mix, the Ravens' offense operated more smoothly, but it was still far from a dominant performance. Baltimore had four three-and-outs in the first half and barely out-gained the Dolphins on the night. Even so, it's tough to complain given the Ravens' start to the season, and we have to keep in mind that Jackson was still shaking off some rust after missing a full month.

Defensively, I'm still not fully convinced the Ravens are anything close to an elite unit, but this should be another good spot for Baltimore going up against J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy, of course, deserves plenty of credit for piloting the Vikings to an upset win at Detroit. It was by no means a stellar performance, but McCarthy made the three or four throws he absolutely had to make, including the game-sealer to Jalen Nailor late in the fourth quarter.

The Vikings defense against the Baltimore offense is the real matchup to watch. After getting walked down the field by the Chargers in Week 8, Minnesota came up with arguably its best showing of the season last week, keeping Detroit to 24 points, sacking Jared Goff five times and holding the Lions under 5.0 yards per play. Detroit converted only 5-of-17 third downs and finished with only 65 rushing yards on 20 carries between David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

While this could be a dangerous spot to buy high on what's ultimately been an unpredictable Vikings team, we'll side with Minnesota at home to cover the 4.5.

The pick: Ravens 24 – Vikings 21

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Spread: Browns -1.5

Total: 37.5

This was already going to be the ugliest game of the week no matter what, but it may be even uglier now – for the Jets, at least – after New York parted ways with its two biggest pieces on defense at the trade deadline.

It's tough to fault New York for cashing in on both Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams in a lost season, but it's also a full-on admittance that this team is still very much mired in a multi-year rebuild. It's also an admittance that they're punting on this season, which… was probably the correct decision.

It's worth noting that the Jets did pick up their first win of the season before the Week 9 bye, but beating the Bengals doesn't exactly go down as a season-shifting win. Obviously, Gardner and Williams are impossible pieces to replace, so we should expect a tangible step back for the Jets' defense – especially with only four days to prepare after the deadline. 

It won't surprise me if the Jets are able to rally and keep this game close, but the Browns' defense is far and away the best unit in this game. With the line making a move in favor of the Browns, we'll side with Cleveland giving less than a field goal.

The pick: Browns 19 – Jets 14

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -2.5

Total: 48.0

The first of three excellent games in the late window takes us to Tampa Bay, where the Bucs come out of a bye to host the hottest team in the NFL. Coming off of cruise-control wins over the Saints, Titans and Browns, the Patriots were tested by the Falcons in Week 9, but a Parker Romo missed extra point in the fourth quarter helped send the Pats to their sixth straight win.

The Pats' resume includes only two wins over teams with a winning record. But especially given some of the upsets we've seen in recent weeks, there's something to be said for a young team with a second-year quarterback avoiding being tripped up. Outside of the Buffalo game, however, this will probably be the toughest test, to date, on the Pats' schedule.

The Bucs come out of a much-needed bye week looking to get healthier on both sides of the ball. Mike Evans remains out, but the hope is the week off could push Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back into the lineup, while Emeka Egbuka should be healthier after playing through a hamstring injury.

Despite the injuries, Tampa Bay has proven to be among the toughest outs in the NFL each week, and it's tough to envision Baker Mayfield and Co. coming out flat in a spot like this. It's one of the bigger toss-ups of the week, but we'll take the Bucs to win and cover the 2.5 at home.

The pick: Bucs 28 – Patriots 24

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -6.5

Total: 45.0

Fun matchup in the late window between two NFC West teams coming off of convincing wins in Week 9. Seattle has been rolling for a few weeks now and has ascended from fun early season story to a team that looks like a true, dark horse contender. After Sunday night's beatdown of the Commanders, Seattle now ranks second in EPA per pass on offense, while Sam Darnold has climbed into the top five in QB EPA per play, success rate and ADOT. Seattle moved to bolster that passing attack at the deadline, bringing in Rashid Shaheed from the Saints to give Darnold a true field-stretcher alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton.

The Seattle running game remains a work in progress (31st in rush EPA), but the run defense has emerged as one of the best in the NFL. Washington did run for 157 yards on Sunday night but needed 36 carries to get there. Prior to that, Seattle hadn't allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games.

On the other side, Arizona is coming off of a big win in Dallas on Monday night in Jacoby Brissett's third spot-start for Kyler Murray. As he did against Indy and Green Bay, Brissett acquitted himself well, completing 21-of-31 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Even before Monday night, a mini QB controversy had been brewing in Arizona, and the Cardinals announced Tuesday that Brissett will start again this week.

Whether Kyler Murray eventually gets the job back remains to be seen, but there's no question the Cardinals' offense has operated more smoothly under Brissett. He's been able to fully unlock Trey McBride in the red zone, while Marvin Harrison Jr. is coming off of a career-high (somehow) seven catches for 96 yards and a score against Dallas.

To me, though, the real story of Monday night was the Arizona defense. The Cardinals were able to harass Dak Prescott all night, force three turnovers and send the Cowboys out on downs twice – including near the goal line on the first possession of the game. Arizona will need that level of effort again this week to slow down the Seahawks.

We'll take Seattle to win the game, but the Cardinals can keep this close – much like they did at home in Week 4. Seattle is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 home games.

The pick: Seahawks 24 – Cardinals 20

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: Rams -4.5

Total: 49.5

Another fun divisional game in the late window is the second meeting between the Rams and 49ers. San Francisco, of course, won outright as an 8.0-point favorite back in Week 5 behind a big night from Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne.

The Niners' health situation has only deteriorated since that game, but there's hope that maybe this is the week they get at least one of Brock Purdy or Ricky Pearsall back. Either way, the Niners haven't felt dramatically different with Jones at the controls. He's now 5-2 as the starter and bounced back nicely against the Giants last week following an ugly loss to Houston.

The Rams are coming off of a third straight blowout win and have now outscored their last three opponents (BAL, JAX, NOR) 86 to 20. As usual, we're keeping an eye on Puka Nacua's status – he's dealing with a ribs injury – but the Rams are optimistic that he'll play.

With the Rams rolling on both sides of the ball right now, and looking to get revenge for that Week 5 upset, we'll lean in that direction. But this is firmly in stay-away territory.

The pick: Rams 28 – 49ers 23

Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders

Spread: Lions -7.5

Total: 48.5

Not much to say here on the Washington side. The season was already over before Jayden Daniels' arm moved in a direction I wish I could unsee, but losing him for an extended period – perhaps the season – was the final blow for what's been a disastrous last two months for Washington.

While everyone flagged the Commanders as an obvious regression team, injuries to Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Marshon Lattimore and Noah Brown have greatly contributed to the 3-6 start. Washington can still be frisky with Marcus Mariota, but this is starting to look more like a gap year as the front office decides how to re-tool the oldest roster in the league around its 24-year-old QB.

Ultimately, this is still very much a veteran-laden team, but hanging in with the Lions off of a SU loss is a difficult ask. The Jared Goff-Dam Campbell combo is 21-8 ATS after a loss, and frankly it's almost impossible to envision the Lions' offense coming out flat two weeks in a row against a defense that's given up 400+ yards in three straight games.

The pick: Lions 40 – Commanders 24

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.5

Total: 44.5

To close out the Sunday slate, we head out to Los Angeles for what should be one of the more closely contested games on the slate. The Chargers have two in a row since falling flat against the Colts in Week 7, dispatching the Vikings in dominant fashion before beating the Titans – but failing to cover the 8.5 – last week. 

The Chargers certainly looked like the better team in Week 9, out-gaining Tennessee 343-206 and holding the Titans to just 10 first downs (1-of-9 on third down). But Tennessee got a pick-six early and returned a punt for a touchdown in the second quarter to make it a game. LA's defense came up with a huge goalline stop in the third quarter, then proceed to march down for a 99-yard touchdown drive to essentially put the win on ice.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off of one of the more impressive wins of the season, taking down the red-hot Colts 27-20. Offensively, the Steelers didn't have to do much. They averaged just 3.7 yards per play and finished with 225 total yards but were able to capitalize on a number of short-field situations, thanks to forcing six Indy turnovers.

While it's certainly a feather-in-the-cap win for Pittsburgh, the turnover luck – which also propelled them to a win over New England earlier in the season – can't be depended upon every week. With that said, the Steelers now face a Chargers team down Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, so they should be able to again get pressure on Justin Herbert.

We've delayed it long enough: This is our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I don't really trust the Steelers' offense, but we also don't know which version of the Chargers is going to show up on a week-to-week basis.

We'll take LA to win a close game at home, but Pittsburgh can cover the 3.5.

The pick: Chargers 21 – Steelers 20

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 44.5

Excellent MNF matchup to finish out the week. Green Bay, of course, is coming off of a massive letdown at home against Carolina, losing outright as a 13.5-point favorite. Suddenly, it's fair to question where the Packers go from there with a difficult matchup this week and one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL. The underlying numbers still imply this is one of the best teams in football, but for the most part, the Packers haven't passed the eye test on a week-to-week basis. Losing their two biggest gimme games of the season – Carolina and Cleveland – feels like it's going to come back to bite Green Bay at some point.

Offensively, the Packers are still struggling to find a rhythm every week. The play calling has been questionable, at best, the offensive line is struggling, and they're now without Tucker Kraft for the rest of the season. On the other side of the ball, the Packers' defense simply cannot get off the field. Green Bay ranks 28th in opponent time per drive and 31st in opponent plays per drive, while forcing the second-fewest turnovers in the NFL. That's resulted in opponents being able to shorten the game and limit overall possessions. Last week, the Packers had just seven total possessions. They reached the red zone on five of those but converted only one touchdown.

Philly enters this game coming off of a bye and hoping to get AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley and Cam Jurgens healthy. Brown and Jurgens sat out Week 8, while Barkley picked up a groin injury in the win over the Giants.

If the Eagles are close to full strength, I like this matchup for a defense that beefed up its pass rush with Jaelan Phillips and an offense that should be able to run on Green Bay. With that said, the Eagles have struggled to put together long drives and have one of the worst third-down conversion rates in the NFL. On paper, that plays into the Packers' hands, but I'm not sure we can trust the Green Bay defense in short-yardage situations.

Green Bay needs this game more than Philly, but I like the Eagles to come out of the bye refreshed and win outright as a slight dog.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Packers 23