Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 3

Last week I went 13-3 by my criterion (Should have taken the Falcons, 49ers and Lions) and 10-6 ATS. I won my best bet (the Broncos), but went 2-3 on LVH contest picks, to go 4-6 on the year there. Overall I'm 28-3 according to my subjective scoring and 15-15-1 ATS.

I'm enjoying this column more than I have in years, largely because the process of figuring out what I really think about the games is more rewarding than trying to find some objective reasoning on which to hang my hat. That said, it's not always any easier. What do I really think about Saints-Panthers, Broncos-Bills, Falcons-Lions and Jets-Dolphins? I'm trying to get clear on that. Other games (Chargers, Bears, 49ers, Seahawks, Redskins) came more easily to me.

I'll pick a best bet and add my LVH picks (when I make them) in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Rams -2.5 at 49ers

I typically like the home teams in the Thursday night games. Last week, I missed on the Bengals, but even then the game was played deep in Houston territory much of the night, and it was just two big plays (DeShaun Watson's 43-yard TD scramble on 3rd-and-15 and John Ross' fumble returned 60 yards) that turned the game. Bottom line, give me the home dog against Jared Goff on a short week.

Rams 13 - 12

LONDON GAME

Ravens -4 vs. Jaguars

This is probably about the right line. The Ravens just lost Marshal Yanda, and the Jaguars defense looks pretty good, so it should be low scoring, and it's really a question of how much Blake Bortles gives away to the Ravens. I don't feel strongly about it, but I'll take the points.

Ravens 20 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Browns -1 at Colts

It's odd to see the Browns as road favorites, but that's how terrible the Colts without Andrew Luck are. I'd love to take the home dog out of principle, but Chuck Pagano is truly one of the league's most inept coaches. Take the Browns.

Browns 17 - 13

Steelers -7.5 at Bears

The Steelers simply aren't the same team on the road because their quarterback struggles so much there. This is a big number, even against the Bears. Take the points.

Steelers 23 - 19

Dolphins -6 at Jets

I'm torn here. I like the Dolphins this year, but the Jets have at least shown up the first two weeks, and this is a big line on the road. Still, I'm taking the Dolphins on a hunch. Lay the wood.

Dolphins 27 - 13

Broncos -3 at Bills

I expected the Broncos to cover against the Cowboys, but not to blow them out. If the Broncos offense is any good, this is suddenly a Super Bowl contender. I don't think much of the Bills, but they're at home, getting points, and the Broncos great pass defense might be wasted on them. Take the dog.

Bills 17 - 16

Texans +13 at Patriots

The Texans defense is good, but I expect the Patriots to find a way, and if they do, DeShaun Watson could be in trouble attempting a comeback. Lay the wood.

Patriots 31 - 13

Saints +6 at Panthers

I thought the Saints would at least show up at home against the Patriots, but I'm starting to think Sean Payton has lost the thread. The Panthers are 2-0 despite awful play by Cam Newton, but I can see him getting right against what's still the league's worst defense. Take the Panthers.

Panthers 34 - 20

Buccaneers pick 'em* at Vikings

There's no line yet due to Sam Bradford's uncertain status, so I made one up. The Bucs would be small favorites, in my opinion if Bradford were declared out, and roughly 4.5-point underdogs if he were playing. Because I think it's more likely he sits, I leaned a little closer to the no-Bradford line. But there's nothing rigorous about this. In any event, I'm inclined to take the Vikings. The Bucs seem a little sloppy to me, and Minnesota's defense should be tough at home.

Vikings 17 - 16

*made-up line

Falcons -3 at Lions

I keep waiting for the Falcons Super Bowl hangover, but so far there's been no evidence of it. The Lions aren't especially good - they had a home game against the Cardinals and a win over the Giants whose offense simply failed to show. But this line is fairly dismissive, and Matt Stafford is usually good for a fourth-quarter run to make the game close enough. Take the points.

Lions 24 - 23

Giants +6 at Eagles

I'm torn here. The Giants have often played better on the road, especially as big underdogs, but the Ben McAdoo/Eli Manning combo is so terrible, I can't see them getting well against the Eagles unless the defense comes up huge. Lay the wood.

Eagles 27 - 17

LATE GAMES

Seahawks +2.5 at Titans

The Seahawks looked terrible at home last week against the 49ers. An offense where your quarterback is running for his life the moment he touches the ball isn't a sustainable strategy . The Titans haven't been sharp, either so far, but Blake Bortles bailed them out with some turnovers last week. In the end, I'll trust the Seahawks to figure it out and back them getting points against a mediocre Tennessee defense.

Seahawks 20 - 19

Chiefs -3 at Chargers

The Chiefs are off to great start, but they don't have 10 days to prepare this time, and they're laying points on the road against a decent (if cursed) team. Take the Chargers, despite the lack of home field advantage.

Chargers 27 - 23

Bengals +9 at Packers

I think the Bengals will bounce back offensively with a new offensive coordinator and just some positive regression to the mean. But whether that's enough to cover against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay is an open question. I suppose this line is big enough. Take the points.

Packers 31 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Raiders -3 at Redskins

The Raiders are one of those square teams that always seems to cover. But I can't get caught up in that. The Redskins should cover at this number if they get anything approaching Kirk Cousins usual level of play. Take the points.

Redskins 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -3 at Cardinals

The verdict is still out on what version of Carson Palmer will show up in 2017, but until I'm sure he's done, these are roughly equal teams. As such I'll take the home dog. Back the Cardinals.

Cardinals 24 - 20

For our handicapping takes via podcast, click here.

I went 10-6 against the spread in Week 2 to put me at 15-15-1 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH Supercontest picks to go 4-6 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.