This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Penn State vs Utah Expert Picks for the Rose Bowl
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The 2023 Rose Bowl is contracted to feature the Pac-12 champion against the Big Ten winner for the last time as the CFP is expanding in 2024. The Utah Utes (10-3) beating USC 47-24 in the Pac-12 title game clinched that part of the matchup for the second straight year, but with B10 champ Michigan making the College Football Playoff, that opened the door for Penn State to play in the "Granddaddy of Them All" for the first time since 2017.
It's not like the Nittany Lions are undeserving of this appearance at 10-2, with their two losses coming against playoff teams in the Wolverines and Ohio State. This is also a historical appearance for PSU, who played in the 1923 Rose Bowl 100 years ago, losing 14-3 to USC in the first time this event was held at Rose Bowl Stadium. Forgive Utah if they are not sentimental for Penn State's 100th anniversary though, as the Utes are trying to get revenge on the Big Ten after losing last year's Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State.
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Penn State vs Utah Odds for Rose Bowl
Spread: Utah -1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 53 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State +100 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Utah -110 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
This line is right where you'd expect it to be because the teams are real mirror images of each other. Each quarterback (Sean Clifford - Penn State, Cameron Rising - Utah) have started at least the last two full seasons and both clubs also have a top 20 total yard defense but with a lockdown CB opting out (Joey Porter, Jr., Clark Phillips III).
All three of Utah's losses came on the road this season (Florida, UCLA, Oregon) so a neutral site game helps, but both of the Nittany Lions' defeats were against playoff teams. These two squads have covered the number in 10 of their last 11 combined games, so it really is an even matchup through and through.
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Penn State vs Utah Betting Picks This Week
You can dig and dig in this game but it's still hard to find an advantage for either side. Utah having TE Dalton Kincaid opt out will be a blow because he had a ceiling game of 18 catches for 234 yards vs. USC in week 7. Penn State is also missing their top target though as Parker Washington, Jr. has declared for the NFL draft, but the Nittany Lions had gotten used to playing without him as he missed the last two games of the year with an injury.
What this matchup could really come down to is just the experience of playing in the Rose Bowl. Utah went through all the pomp and circumstance last year in their first appearance in this game, and still battled hard to the end in a 3-point loss to Ohio State. PSU coach James Franklin also knows the routine though, losing 52-49 to USC in the 2017 Rose Bowl.
With such an even matchup on the sides, the best bet for the Rose Bowl looks to be on the 'over' 52.5. You've got two experienced QBs and two good defenses that are also both missing NFL bound cover corners. There were 93 total points scored when Utah was in the Rose Bowl last year, and 101 when Penn State last made this game six years ago.
Rose Bowl Best Bet: Over 52.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Penn State vs Utah Prediction
Utah is also losing RB Tavion Thomas as he has opted out for NFL draft prep, but they also have two other backs with 450+ yards this season (Micah Bernard, Ja'Quinden Jackson). Penn State has two RBs with over 800 yards this season (Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen) so both teams can run the ball - which opens up their passing game.
Rising and Clifford both threw just 7 INTs this season in 12 games, so neither QB turns the ball over to kill drives. Penn State scored 30+ points in six straight games to end the season while Utah had 40+ in four of their last five. No matter how many different ways you run this one, it looks like a high-scoring affair.
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