This article is part of our Position Rankings series.
Welcome into Part II of my early quarterback rankings for the upcoming college football season. Part I of this series broke down quarterbacks 11 through 25 while this installment gives out my early Top 10. Rankings will fluctuate as the offseason progresses and more information becomes available, but as a pre-Spring Practice (sans Arizona State) exercise, here is my early Top 10 quarterback list.
1.) D'Eriq King, Houston (Sr.)
On a per-game basis, no quarterback was more productive than King was in 2018 with an average for 40.5 fantasy points per game. He does it all; King is efficient as a passer with a 8.6 YPA to go with a completion rate at 63.5 percent and his touchdown rate of 10.4 percent was better than the likes of Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins or West Virginia's Will Grier. As a runner, King is devastating for opposing defenses. His athleticism from being a converted wide receiver shows through when he pulls it down and runs, as evidenced by his non-sack adjusted 6.1 YPC average along with 14 rushing scores.
The system change under new head coach Dana Holgorsen shouldn't be something that concerns you when draft season comes along. The easy comparison for King's doubters would be looking to last year's consensus top quarterback, Khalil Tate, who was also coming off a huge season but was taking on a new system under Kevin Sumlin. Obviously, Tate was among the biggest 2018 disappointments, but much of that can be explained
Welcome into Part II of my early quarterback rankings for the upcoming college football season. Part I of this series broke down quarterbacks 11 through 25 while this installment gives out my early Top 10. Rankings will fluctuate as the offseason progresses and more information becomes available, but as a pre-Spring Practice (sans Arizona State) exercise, here is my early Top 10 quarterback list.
1.) D'Eriq King, Houston (Sr.)
On a per-game basis, no quarterback was more productive than King was in 2018 with an average for 40.5 fantasy points per game. He does it all; King is efficient as a passer with a 8.6 YPA to go with a completion rate at 63.5 percent and his touchdown rate of 10.4 percent was better than the likes of Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins or West Virginia's Will Grier. As a runner, King is devastating for opposing defenses. His athleticism from being a converted wide receiver shows through when he pulls it down and runs, as evidenced by his non-sack adjusted 6.1 YPC average along with 14 rushing scores.
The system change under new head coach Dana Holgorsen shouldn't be something that concerns you when draft season comes along. The easy comparison for King's doubters would be looking to last year's consensus top quarterback, Khalil Tate, who was also coming off a huge season but was taking on a new system under Kevin Sumlin. Obviously, Tate was among the biggest 2018 disappointments, but much of that can be explained away by an ankle injury that hampered him much of the first two months. Tate actually averaged the ninth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks from Week 8 onward.
King's true dual-threat ability coupled with his fit in Holgorsen's system lock him in as the No.1 fantasy quarterback heading into 2019. He'll be able to produce on the ground while posting video game numbers through the air in what Holgorsen promises will be an iteration of the Air Raid offense.
2.) Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (Sr.)
It's tough to put into words how unique Hurts' career has been to this point and many before me have detailed it better than I ever could. So let's focus on the now with Hurts, who has a chance to end his wild collegiate career on a major upswing at his new school.
Leading off, there really isn't a better landing spot for a quarterback than Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma. Not that Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray wouldn't have gone on to have stellar careers without him, but Riley certainly helped those two maximize their potential.
In Hurts, we have an experienced player stepping into a quarterback-friendly system loaded with maybe the best skill group in the nation (depending on how you feel about his former school). Hurts was already starting to show some improvements as a passer in 2018 when he completed just under 73 percent of his passes with a 10.9 YPA to complement an 11.4 percent touchdown rate. Admittedly, the small sample of pass attempts (70) and the situations in which Hurts would enter games put a damper on those rate stats, but they can't be thrown out completely, either.
Oklahoma threw it just 44.5 percent of the time (83rd in FBS) last season, so the Sooners were a bit more ground-heavy than one might think. That said, Kyler Murray accounted for 27 percent of the Sooners' rushing attempts, so it's clear that even when the Sooners aren't going to the air, they still like to keep the ball in the quarterback's hands. This bodes well for Hurts' rushing projection as a player who has shown fringe 1,000-yard potential in the past. 4,500 total yards and 40 total touchdowns is entirely feasible for Hurts in 2019, if that interests you at all.
3.) Justin Fields, Ohio State (So.)
After being granted a hardship waiver from the NCAA, Fields is officially good to go for the Buckeyes in 2019 and should have no trouble winning the starting spot vacated by the NFL-bound Dwayne Haskins.
Fields is short on track record but long on talent as the former No.2 overall player in the 2018 recruiting class behind only Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. He played in parts of 12 games for Georgia as a true freshman, mostly in mop-up duty, and he looked the part of an elite player. Fields completed 27 of 39 passes (69.2 percent) for 328 yards and four touchdowns while adding another 266 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
So what are the Buckeyes getting in Fields? Coach Ryan Day has shown an ability to play to his quarterback's strengths, and Fields is an immense talent both as a runner and as a passer. I wouldn't say his passing ability will instantly be on par with what Dwayne Haskins brought to the table last year, but Fields is a far better passer than, say, J.T. Barrett was. And Fields is equal to, if not better than, Barrett was as a runner (no need to mention Haskins in this regard; Haskins is not more of a runner than a thrower, Stephen A.)
That is a powerful combination of skills for Fields, and with an elite collection of talent around him and an A+ coaching staff, it's easy to see why he has the third best Heisman odds, per the FanDuel Sportsbook. You really don't need to overthink it when it comes to Fields. If he finishes outside top five among quarterbacks, I'll be shocked.
4.) Adrian Martinez, Nebraska (So.)
Year 1 had its ups and downs for Martinez and the new-look Huskers under coach Scott Frost. The high points were particularly impressive; his 401 total yards (276 passing, 125 rushing) and four total touchdowns against a strong Minnesota defense gave a glimpse of what the Frost-Martinez can look like when everything is clicking.
Yes, there were the classic freshman mistakes along the way, but they were fewer and farther between down the stretch. Year 2 for Martinez looks extremely promising. He'll have full command of the system and he's much further along than, say, McKenzie Milton was at the end of his first season under Frost. Will Martinez bump up his completion percentage by a full 10 points and add 4.3 yards to his YPA like Milton did as a sophomore? No, but he doesn't need to, either.
A sophomore season like Milton's is completely in the realm of possibility, though. Milton completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,037 yards and 37 passing scores while adding 613 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in his second year. If Frost can get that out of an unheralded and undersized signal-caller like Milton, who's to say Martinez can't reach or possibly exceed those heights?
5.) Sam Ehlinger, Texas (Jr.)
Ehlinger's Bull-in-a-China Shop play style lends itself to durability questions, but no quarterback comes without some sort of injury risk. We already saw that Ehlinger can play through the bumps and bruises that come with that approach and his production was encouraging.
He upped his efficiency (64.7 completion percentage, 7.8 YPA in 2018; 57.5 completion percentage, 7.0 YPA in 2017) and cut down on the mistakes ( 1.1 percent in 2018; 2.5 percent in 2017) as a sophomore, and even though he'll be without the great Lil'Jordan Humphrey this season, he's still surrounded by plenty of talent.
Ehlinger already has an excellent rapport with matchup nightmare Collin Johnson (63 percent completion rate when targeted, 9.2 YPT) and a competent complementary target in Devin Duvernay. If five-star receiver Bru McCoy is granted eligibility, it will add yet another major threat to Ehlinger's arsenal.
The biggest question regarding Ehlinger's fantasy upside for 2018 is his rushing production. Texas has its eyes set on a Big 12 Title and a playoff run this year, and to do that, it will need to keep Ehlinger upright. The easiest way to do that would be scaling back Ehlinger's exposure to hits as a rusher. Of the non-option quarterbacks, only 11 quarterbacks had more rushing attempts than Ehlinger in 2018. Sure, Ehlinger is 235 pounds and is a great short yardage pile pusher (see: the entire Sugar Bowl), but Texas is Texas and it should be able to generate a strong rushing attack without running its quarterback into the ground.
Running back Keontay Ingram showed workhorse potential as a freshman last season and should be trusted to alleviate some of the pressure on Ehlinger as a runner. If he takes a step forward in his development this season, we'll have to scale back our rushing expectations for Ehlinger, although Ehlinger may still be the Longhorn's best goal line option overall. In any case, Ehlinger enters 2019 as a premier fantasy option at quarterback.
6.)Nathan Rourke, Ohio (R-Jr.)
Rourke was a polarizing figure heading into 2018 with his out-of-nowhere rise to stardom in 2017 leading many to wonder what he had in store for Act II. All he did was back it up by throwing 22 touchdowns and running for another 13, showing he was no one-hit wonder.
Rourke now enters his third year as the Ohio starter and is unquestionably an upper-echelon quarterback. The rushing ability isn't going anywhere and he might have even more on his plate in that regard this season with Ohio replacing A.J. Ouellette and Maleek Irons in the backfield. As for his passing ability, Rourke bumped up his efficiency by nearly five percentage points (55.1 percent to 59.9 percent) while also upping his touchdown rate (5.8 percent to 8.4 percent). While we can't expect that sort of leap again, we should trust Rourke's ability in that facet.
A major factor in Rourke's continued growth as a passer will be the development of Cameron Odom and Isiah Cox. Both will be stepping into starting roles following the departures of Papi White and Andrew Meyer, both of whom were productive four-year players. Odom caught 30 passes in an expanded role last season and Cox, in a lesser role, turned three of his 11 receptions into touchdowns and averaged 28.0 yards per catch. With that, there's reason to believe Rourke has enough talent around him to help him reach another level in 2019.
7.)Spencer Sanders/Dru Brown, Oklahoma State
This is a battle that's a ways away from being settled with Sanders -- the 2017 Gatorade Texas Player of the Year -- and Brown, a graduate transfer in his second year on campus. But what we do know that whoever comes away as the starter will be put in a position to be a major fantasy factor in 2019.
It's established that Oklahoma State is always a good starting point when shopping for quarterback in your draft. Mike Gundy heads up an offense that is always among the most prolific in the nation and he can get the most out of his quarterbacks. The addition of Sean Gleeson from Princeton as the new OC should at least keep the 'Pokes on their usual torrid scoring pace. His offense set an Ivy League record in 2018 with 470 points in 10 games.
Looking at the combatants, Sanders has the talent edge but lacks experience after redshirting last season. Brown, meanwhile, is not going to wow you with his talent but he has legitimate starting experience (25 games, 37 passing touchdowns) from his Hawai'i days and is not afraid to let it fly (412 attempts in 2017). Sanders would be the more appealing option if he did end up winning the job, but Brown would likely be able to put up strong numbers thanks to the quarterback-friendly system and loaded receiving corps headlined by Tylan Wallace.
8.) Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (Jr.)
Mond is another player who took massive strides as a sophomore in 2018 and it's fair to project another level from him in 2019. He completed 57.3 percent of his passes with a 7.5 YPA -- a far cry from his shaky freshman season that included a 51.5 completion percentage and a 6.1 YPA -- but those are still numbers that can be improved upon with another full offseason under coach Jimbo Fisher.
How Mond adapts without some of A&M's biggest contributors from a year ago is a valid reason to pump the brakes on his hype, but let's explore what he has around him for this year. A quartet of promising receivers in Jhamon Ausbon, Quartney Davis, Camron Buckley, and Kendrick Rogers all have experience and upside and should have larger roles with A&M unlikely to be able to rely on tight end for production without Jace Sternberger.
The other elephant in the room is the Aggies' schedule, which is, in a word, brutal. A&M not only has the built-in challenge of playing in the SEC West, but it also drew the short end of the stick in terms of its cross-conference opponent with a trip to Athens to face Georgia on tap. The non-conference schedule has the classic cupcakes baked in, but a trip to Clemson also looms in there.
The strength of schedule wrinkle can be useful in a tiebreaker between two similarly valued quarterbacks, but it can be overblown in the grand scheme of things. For starters, A&M already played the third -toughest schedule last season, per SBNation's metrics. Playing in the West didn't stop Mond and it didn't stop Nick Fitzgerald or Jordan Ta'amu from posting strong campaigns, either. If the Strength of Schedule Boogeyman results in a draft day discount for Mond, I'll gladly buy.
9.) Alan Bowman, Texas Tech (So.)
Texas Tech quarterbacks have been one of the more bankable commodities in CFF since the Mike Leach days. With Air Raid disciple Kliff Kingsbury gone and Matt Wells entering the fold, we're ushering in a new era of offense in Lubbock. Wells, who was hired after leading Utah State to a wildly successful season, is no slouch as an offensive mind. His Aggies finished second behind only Oklahoma in points per game (47.5) and plenty of that production came from his quarterback, Jordan Love, who produced 3,208 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns.
In Bowman we have a player who looked immensely promising as a true freshman last season as he completed 69.4 percent of his passes with an 8.1 YPA to go with 17 touchdowns in parts of eight games. A collapsed lung derailed what could've been a 4,000-yard freshman campaign.
Now that he's healthy and immersed in a new playbook that will still lend itself to big numbers from the quarterback, there's every reason to believe Bowman can be a top drawer fantasy contributor in 2019. Don't let the switch from a true Air Raid system cause Bowman to tumble down your rankings.
10.) Cole McDonald, Hawaii (R-Jr.)
I go back and forth on McDonald but I still believe in him enough to have him in my Top 10...for now. His start to last season was like some sort of fever dream; he completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,100 yards, 24 touchdowns and just two picks through his first six games and added 227 rushing yards and two scores in that span. The rest of the year was uneven to say the least.
Over McDonald's final seven games, his completion percentage dropped to 52.9, his TD:INT Ratio was a poor 12:8, and his rushing production essentially evaporated. There is something that could help explain away McDonald's late-season struggles: an injury. McDonald missed Hawaii's game Wyoming on October 1st and that seems to be the turning point. From that week onward, he struggled to the splits mentioned above. If he truly wasn't close to 100 percent health over that time, his performance can be forgiven.
Looking ahead to this year, McDonald will still be in one of the most QB-friendly systems in all of college football and two of his top weapons in Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward will be returning. John Ursua's departure stings, but that duo can do plenty of damage on its own. The system and McDonald's success early in the year carry him to his current ranking, but he's no lock to remain in the Top 10 as the offseason unfolds.
