College Football Picks: Kentucky vs Ole Miss Best Bets
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Two 1-0 teams open conference play Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EDT in Lexington. Kentucky plodded its way to a 24-16 victory over Toledo last weekend, running 43 times while completing just 10 passes, while Ole Miss did whatever it wanted in a 63-7 route of Georgia State, throwing for 400 yards while rushing for 295. To say this is a contrast in styles is an understatement.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Betting Odds for Week 2
Spread: Kentucky +9.5 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook); Ole Miss -8.5 (-110, ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 50.0 (-113, BetMGM); Under 50.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Kentucky +280 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Ole Miss -330 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
There's been some pretty solid line movement here, as the Rebels have been favored by as much as -11.5 during the week before it's steady decline. While it still sits above the magical number of -6.5/7, a three-point move is significant. Ole Miss has also been as high as -410 on the moneyline, so it certainly seems like early betting was heavily on the Wildcats.
The total has also moved three to four points, peaking at 54.5 before beginning a steady decline. Because of the steady movement, if you're favoring a bet on the Rebels winning handily and/or forcing tempo, it seems to be in your best interest to wait and see if you can get even more favorable numbers.
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Kentucky vs Ole Miss Betting Picks for Week 2
We can't take a ton away from either team's performances last week, particularly defensively, as this is a step up in class for both. What I do find a touch interesting is recent history between these two; Kentucky went to Oxford last year and won 20-17, and the previous meeting in Lexington resulted in a 22-19 Rebels victory. It certainly seems like Kentucky HC Mark Stoops has figured out how to slow Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin's high-octane offense, and also shows why the spread and total have seen their movement.
Kentucky is going to struggle to score points all season. Ole Miss will rev things up as much as possible, which will result in a blowout, but when it's not, it leads to short possessions that allow Kentucky to ground and pound, dominate time of possession, and keep the Rebels' defense on the field, wearing them down.
It's such a massive difference in styles, you really have to pick your side and go all in. It's a huge risk here, given the offensive potency from Ole Miss and the lack thereof from Kentucky. But we've got an inexperienced QB in the Rebels' Austin Simmons making his first road start. That, paired with the recent history of low-scoring, tight contests, is enough for me to cautiously back the home side even if I have no idea how they'll score points. Maybe we get some late money on the Rebels, and we can get the number back up to +10.5, or perhaps buying a point for less odds is safer.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Expert Pick: Kentucky (+9.5) -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Kentucky vs Ole Miss Predictions for Week 2
This is a prove-it game on so many levels for Ole Miss. Simmons threw 31 passes last week after 32 all of last year; RB Kewan Lacy ran 16 times last week after 23 all of last year; and while last week's leading receiver, Harrison Wallace, has more experience after three years at Penn State, he still caught just five balls last week. The rest of the receiving corps is completely rebuilt from a season ago; is there enough chemistry to handle the road environment?
Kentucky's offense has as many questions as its opponent, but lacks the ceiling. There will be spots to target against them throughout the season. They tallied three sacks last week and will need to pressure Simmons early and often, corral the run game, and force turnovers/short fields. This could completely backfire, and Ole Miss wins going away as the Wildcats can't match points. But there are enough questions on the Rebels' side this early in the season, we'll need to see it before buying in. Their schedule is pretty brutal, so they can't afford an early loss here, but the Wildcats won't make it easy.
Ole Miss 24-16
