College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
Another sub-par week, but we're only a perfect Saturday away from .500! Seriously, this isn't fun, and it's making me want to pen this column on one side, and then switch every single pick in the opposite direction. It's also not helping that my personal life is completely out of control with kid activities, weddings, etc., and I can't watch as many games as I'd like and have to rely on stat-based matchups and gut feel, the latter of which is clearly going poorly. I'll get hot come October and November, but fade accordingly.
I really want to go to the same wells this week that I did last week, which went 1-1. Coastal Carolina and Stanford are awful. Play USA and Virginia (which I can't while living in the state).
North Texas (-1.5) at Army
The only thing we know about Army is they'll try to control time of possession, which they did against the Mean Green last year to the tune of 42:18. But North Texas was highly efficient in those limited minutes, and appears to have at least bolstered their run defense, allowing 2.8 ypc after 4.7 ypc last season.
Over 64.5 points, SMU at
TCU
SMU has faced one FBS opponent and allowed 48 points. We don't know much about TCU, except that they beat the brakes off a weak UNC side. I also don't like chasing points here. But I feel confident that one team flirts with 40 points. And if they do, the spread tells us the other will do their part to get this into the over category. I'm apparently in the minority, as the line hasn't moved all week, but I'm taking it anyway.
Duke (-3) vs. North Carolina State
The Wolfpack are 3-0, 2-0 in the ACC and have beaten in-state foes Wake Forest and East Carolina, yet are 3-point dogs here for a reason. Duke is desperate, losing to Tulane and Illinois, but has a clean conference slate; they have to start positively. NCST's defense remains vulnerable, particularly against the pass, where they rank 131st, allowing 297.3 ypg. What does Duke do? Air it out with Darian Mensah, averaging 352.7 ypg. Even a last-minute drive here gets us a cover.
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Auburn
I don't really love the number, nor that it's one of the bigger games of the week with lots of eyeballs upon it. But OU HC Brent Venables has taken over defensive play calling, made an immediate impact, and gets to scheme against a quarterback that Auburn is clearly hiding and transferred from the Sooners' program? Yes please.
East Carolina (+6.5) vs. BYU
The Cougars have faced Portland State and Stanford, consider me unimpressed, and now travel across the country to face a feisty, veteran Pirates squad and are expected to win by more than a touchdown? Both teams have shown elite defense against the run, but BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has his first road test and has thrown for just 272 yards in two starts.
Last week: 2:3; Season 5-10
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Greg's Picks
I believe it was two years ago when I was caught in this 3-2 / 2-3 spiral for weeks, and while that's not always a bad thing, I hope I'm not falling into that again this season. This past week, I was fortunate enough to be on the right side of that equation, which put me above .500 for the season, but if I'm being honest, I felt like I deserved better.
The week got off to a great start on Friday night as 15.5-point underdog New Mexico won outright at UCLA. Saturday started with an easy cover on Michigan and a pretty bad loss on Wisconsin. The Badgers had a chance to backdoor 'Bama, but that would have been one that I didn't deserve. The Badgers looked terrible on Saturday. Mistakes on offense, missed tackles on defense, it could be a long season in Madison if they don't clean things up fast.
After that, it was another easy win on Arkansas State, and then the frustration set in as Florida had so many chances to cover the number at LSU, but one mistake after another, and the Gators eventually lost by 10. It's tough to overcome five INTs. Five INTs!
Under (46.5) Iowa at
Rutgers
At first glance, this appears to be an easy under, but a closer look reveals that Rutgers has actually been involved in a lot of high-scoring games over the past 12 months, so it's not as simple as it first seemed. What pushes this under, however, is Iowa and its propensity to play tight in big games. Is this a big game? It might not end up being a big game, but it's the first conference game for each team, so yeah, right now it's a big game. These two teams have played a combined six games, and we've seen a lot of points, but the only time either faced a real opponent (Iowa vs. ISU), the game was a total slog. I'm expecting something similar on Friday night.
Over (55.5) Syracuse at
Clemson
We've seen a lot of coverage on Clemson and the downfall of Dabo Sweeney, but all is not lost yet as the Tigers can still win the ACC and make their way into the playoff. The key, of course, is that they need to turn things around fast. The biggest problem this season has been the offense, and since that side is going to get most of the attention this week, well, you know about the squeaky wheel. Helping matters this week is that this will be the best situation for the offense all year. At home, against a bad defense. The Orange are struggling out of the gate as well, but they've managed to move the ball reasonably well. I'm expecting Clemson to do most of the heavy lifting here, but Syracuse should pitch in with a few scores as well.
Maryland (+10) at Wisconsin
I fully acknowledge that I might be overreacting to my loss on the Badgers this past week by fading them in this spot, but I actually have some numbers to back up this side as well. Granted, team stats at this point are a little skewed because of the competition, but I think we can place a little stock in the trends we are seeing. I'm focusing on Maryland's offense vs. the Badgers' defense. Early in the season, the Badgers have shown an ability to stop the run, but they've been torched through the air. Well, guess what Maryland excels at? Yep, the Terps have been slinging it this season, and I see no reason why that stops this week. Unless the Badgers learn how to tackle, there's no reason to think they'll cover this number.
Oregon (-35.5) vs. Oregon State
This was once a rivalry game held late in the season, but now it's been relegated to the wasteland of week four on the schedule. With that said, I'm sure the players still get up for their in-state rivals, which should help us in this case because the only thing that can prevent an Oregon cover here is malaise. We saw it this past week: a sleepy Duck team went to Evanston and never really woke up. They still won with ease, but failed to cover. At home, against their in-state rival, that should not be the case this week. The Beavers are 0-3 this season, and they've managed to stay within 10 points of their opponent just once this season.
Miami (-7.5) vs. Florida
Yeah, I realize I'm fading two teams that I sided with this past week, and perhaps some bias is creeping in here, but I think there's a good case to be made for Miami this week. I explained earlier that Florida should have covered the game at LSU last week, and if not for all the turnovers, the Gators might have won. With that said, it was another loss, and things are starting to fall apart in Gainesville. A poor start here, and the wheels just might come off mid-game. On the other side, Miami is really rolling right now, the 'Canes absolutely destroyed a decent USF team this past week, and you know they'll be ready for this one. The environment won't be quite as hostile for Florida this week compared to last, but I dare say the competition will be better.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season 8-7-0
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Jeff's Picks
Of course, my toughest calls came in last week, while my easier calls did not. The massive rain delay impacted my USC Over call, as the Trojans were denied entry into the indoor practice facility. Still, I'm proud of the Arkansas call, as the Razorbacks lost but covered. I have a good feeling about this slate, despite allowing some big point spreads.
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Auburn
I'm reading a lot of pundits who are taking the other side of this game, and frankly, I don't buy it. I get the revenge element - after being run out of Oklahoma, Jackson Arnold will enter his old stomping grounds in hopes of making the coaching staff eat their words. It's a very strong narrative to hang one's hopes on, especially when you take a look at what Brent Vanables has done with the Sooners' defense this season. Last week, a couple of breakaway plays were all Michigan could muster against it, and the Wolverines were otherwise shut down. Hugh Freeze's offense is a little better, but it's Auburn's defense I worry about. Sure, they managed to get past Baylor, but not before Sawyer Robertson ripped off 419 yards and three touchdowns. Robertson is an elite quarterback, but I put him on a similar tier to John Mateer, who could leap forward in the Heisman race with a good showing here. As for Arnold, the Sooners who couldn't hit him in a red contact jersey last year will certainly enjoy giving him 100 percent.
Missouri (-10.5) vs. South Carolina
I think Shane Beamer's squad has been overvalued all season. I've yet to see anything special from them, and even though LaNorris Sellers has a good chance to return in this game, things haven't really gone his way either. The Vanderbilt loss was especially messy, and I don't like their chances against Mizzou, who are playing lights out so far this year. Ahmad Hardy and Marquise Davis are excelling in the run game, and Beau Pribula has been effective after being thrust into the starting role after Sam Horn's injury. The Tigers are a team that can pound you into submission, and I doubt the Gamecocks will be up to the task.
Vanderbilt (-27) vs. Georgia State
Vandy enjoyed some big upset wins last year, but do you remember where they tripped up? You're correct if you said Georgia State. The loss to the Panthers was a huge blow that cost Vandy dearly, and I'm willing to bet that this game has been circled on the schedule for a while. After the win against South Carolina, the Commodores have an idea of how good they can be, and if Diego Pavia is dialed in, the Panthers are in for a long day. This is not the same Georgia State team from last year. They've sunk to the bottom of the FBS in short order, and I'm confident that Pavia and company will keep the foot on the gas and cover.
USC (-17.5) vs. Michigan State
I can sum up this game in a couple of sentences. USC's offense ranks first in the country, and Michigan State ranks 120th in Passing Yards Allowed. Rutgers picked the Spartans apart, and they barely squeaked by Boston College - this is a Michigan State team you can bet against. Although all the hype centers around Jayden Maiava and his elite receivers, a stout defense is often overlooked. Sure, they surrender their share of breakaway plays, but they lead the nation with 14 sacks. Aidan Chiles is a solid quarterback, but he gets a little frenetic when he's pressured too often. The Trojans will get to him and disrupt State's offense, and they'll hang a customary big number on this defense.
Baylor (-2.5) vs. Arizona State
This is not the same Arizona State team from last year, despite Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson's continued connection. The defense is certainly suspect, and offensive production has regressed. Baylor has endured tough losses, but they are much better than the 1-2 record would lead you to believe. Sawyer Robertson is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Bryson Washington is a future NFL draft pick. Baylor's defense needs some fine-tuning, but I think they have the offensive firepower to overcome that deficiency.
Last Week: 2-3-0 Season: 7-8-0
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