This article is part of our FanDuel College Football series.
CFB FanDuel DFS Breakdown for Saturday Main Slate
It's bowl season! Which, in turn, also means transfer season for a lot of players. I have listed all that I could find below to hopefully help you figure out where other players may need to step up. In terms of the odds, just Jacksonville State makes it to 30 on the five-game slate, though Texas Tech (29.5) isn't far behind. Louisiana-Lafayette is just slightly behind the pair, as is New Mexico State, both sitting at 27.5 expected points.
That Louisiana-Jacksonville State pairing leads the way in expected score at 57.5, with Texas Tech-Cal (55.5) and Fresno State-New Mexico State (51.5) also clearing 50 points. Boise State-UCLA (48.5) and App State-Miami (42.5) are the lowest expected outputs.
No huge favorites on this slate, but App State is actually the biggest at -6.5, likely due, in part, to the RedHawks being without starting signal-caller Aveon Smith.
College Football DFS Weather (winds 10+ MPH and precip. chance 50-plus percent noted)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State (Cure Bowl) - Winds expected to be 15-plus MPH and rain expected throughout.
Notable College Football Injuries/Absences for Saturday Bowls
QB
Logan Fife, Fresno State - Entered transfer portal
Ethan Garbers, UCLA - Expected to be available for bowl game.
Taylen Green, Boise State - Transferred to Arkansas
Aveon Smith, Miami (Ohio) - Entered transfer portal
Sam Jackson, California - Entered transfer portal
Dante Moore, UCLA - Entered transfer portal
Tyler Shough, Texas Tech - Transferred to Louisville
RB
Nate Noel, Appalachian State - Entered transfer portal
Carson Steele, UCLA - Wasn't spotted at practice Tuesday
Isaiah Ifanse, California - Considered day-to-day and seems to have a chance to play.
Dre'Lynn Washington -
WR
Trent Hudson, New Mexico State - Entered transfer portal
Myles Price, Texas Tech - Entered transfer portal
Jerand Bradley, Texas Tech - Entered transfer portal
Loic Fouonji, Texas Tech - Entered transfer portal
Nehemiah Martinez, Texas Tech Entered transfer portal
Eric McAlister, Boise State - Entered transfer portal
Dashaun Davis, Appalachian State - Entered transfer portal
Milan Tucker, Appalachian State - Entered transfer portal
Jordin Parker, New Mexico State - Entered transfer portal
Keegan Jones, UCLA - Entered transfer portal
Kam Brown, UCLA - Entered transfer portal
TE
Carsen Ryan, UCLA - Transferred to Utah
College Football DFS Tools
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Stats
- Team Trends
- Targets
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
Saturday CFB DFS Plays on FanDuel
Quarterback
Diego Pavia New Mexico State ($10,700) vs. Fresno State
Pavia seems like one of the safer options on the slate. He's a dual-threat option under center, rushing for at least 35 yards in every game since Week 2 and for north of 95 yards four different times this year. The bowl game should present another opportunity to scamper versus a Bulldogs defense that has yielded 67 or more rushing yards to three of the last four quarterbacks it has faced and a combined 192 rushing yards in the last two games. Pavia could be in for a big day on the ground in this one.
GPP Target: Joey Aguilar, Appalachian State ($10,500) vs. Miami (Ohio)
The optics don't appear great in this one, facing a RedHawks defense that has allowed just 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the season, but when you check a bit deeper, you see that the last three quarterbacks and four of the last five have gone for slightly more fantasy points than average. Any mark at Aguilar's season average or better would give him 2x value, which is certainly a serviceable number in a small slate. Given the raw stats allowed by Miami (Ohio), allowing a slate-low 197.2 passing yards and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game, things seem bleak, but it's not quite as bad if you adjust for the opponent. This could lead to low rostership for Aguilar with some upside.
Zion Webb, Jacksonville State ($9,000) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Despite a lackluster showing against New Mexico State in the regular-season finale, Webb has taken back control of the starting gig for Jacksonville State down the stretch and has proven to be a capable fantasy contributor, tallying 20-plus points in the four games prior to the stinker against the Aggies, one of which came against South Carolina. While Louisiana has allowed just 114 rushing yards in 12 games versus FBS opponents, the Ragin' Cajuns have also yielded eight rushing scores, and there have been multiple occasions where opposing quarterbacks have run for 50-plus yards. Plus, many of the team's opponents seemingly didn't have dual-threat quarterbacks, which can skew the numbers.
Chandler Fields, Louisiana-Lafayette ($8,000) vs. Jacksonville State
Similar to Webb, Fields took over the starting gig later in the season, though his path to the starting gig came via injuries to others ahead of him on the depth chart. In his three starts to close out the regular season, Fields averaged 22.7 FanDuel points, on 262.7 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. Jacksonville State has kept opposing quarterbacks in check from a fantasy perspective, keeping five of the past six 13 percent or more below average, but even a 15-16 percent drop, which was the case or better in four of the last six, would keep Fields around 20 points, well over a 2x value at this salary. Even a 20-30 percent drop in his recent fantasy output would make him worthy of a look.
Running Back
Jaydn Ott, California ($10,000) vs. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have done a solid job hemming up opposing passing attacks this season, allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, but the Red Raiders have had some struggles containing the run, yielding 4.5 yards per attempt, 1.5 rushing scores per game and 167.3 rush yards per contest. The Red Raiders also yield more than four receptions per contest to opposing running backs, and that is an area Ott has been effective, recording 46 catches last year and another 21 this season. This could be a spot where we see him more involved as a receiver.
Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech ($9,400) vs. Cal
While Cal's pass defense hasn't been quite as tight as Texas Tech's this season, the Red Raiders saw a bevy of wideouts hit the transfer portal following the conclusion of the regular season. They rotated heavily at the position this season due to the uptempo pace, so the turnover doesn't leave the cupboard bare, but it wouldn't surprise me if the coaching staff leans heavily on Brooks again in this one. Brooks toted the rock 31 or more times on four occasions in a five-game stretch prior to the final two contests of the regular season, which included a blowout loss to Texas. The Red Raiders are favored in this one and seem likely to utilize a heavy dose of Brooks again. The Golden Bears have also let six of the last seven opposing running back rooms top the century mark on the ground, and Brooks dominates the backfield work for the Red Raiders.
TJ Harden, UCLA ($7,400) vs. Boise State
Carson Steele has reportedly been banged up and didn't practice earlier in the week, so it's quite possible he'll be operating at less than 100 percent, and that's if he plays at all. Harden capably handed the lead role for the Bruins against USC on Nov. 20, rushing 22 times for 142 yards and a touchdown in that contest, and he would presumably serve in the lead role for this one as well if Steele is nicked up. The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rush attempts to opponents on the slate, trailing only the Bruins, but they've yielded 4.8 yards per rush attempt to running backs, a number, not to mention the second-most rushing scores to running backs (16). The Broncos pass defense has been formidable this year, so I'll take a chance here with another option in UCLA's offense.
GPP Play: Anwar Lewis, Jacksonville State ($6,800) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Getting a couple pieces of the highest-projected scorers on the slate isn't a bad thing, and this is a good spot to do that. Sure, Malik Jackson has tallied three touchdowns and 136 rushing yards in the last two games, and that's why he checks in with an $8,000 salary. That doesn't change the fact that Lewis has typically held an advantage in terms of workload, toting the rock double-digit times in five straight prior to the team's last game against New Mexico State. He also scored three times in that five-game span and topped 80 rushing yards three times to finish with 10.9 or more points four times. The Ragin' Cajuns have also yielded 100-plus rushing yards to opposing backs in 10 straight games, and 180-plus four times in that span, not to mention 13 rushing scores in 12 contests.
Another To Consider, Malik Sherrod, Fresno State ($9,200) vs. New Mexico State
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Kaedin Robinson, Appalachian State ($7,800) vs. Miami (Ohio)
I'm not interested in Gage Larvadain at the top of the board due to the turnover under center for the RedHawks, and there is a lot of inconsistency with Jeremiah Hunter, who can have big games but has gone for 11 or fewer points in three of the last four. Robinson certainly seems like a risk in this scenario as well, but the RedHawks have kept nearly all of the opposing running back rooms well under fantasy average this year, while opposing passing attacks have seen a bit more success. I'm also not convinced the RedHawks will be able to sustain drives as well with Aveon Smith out of the equation, which should mean more possessions for the Mountaineers. While the wideouts have gone under average in the last four contests, four of the last six games have rested in a 17 percent or less drop in production. Given the options on this slate and the fact that Robinson is averaging 16.4 FD points over the last five games, a drop of that amount is more than acceptable. Robinson has also proven to have ample upside, crossing the 20-point barrier four times this yar and 30 once as well.
Logan Loya, UCLA ($7,500) vs. Boise State
Loya is another wideout who provides a safe floor on this slate among a reasonably priced wide receiver crop. While generally stout, the Broncos have displayed some cracks against the passing attack recently, keeping UNLV's wideouts just nine percent under average and allowing Air Force -- take that with a grain of salt -- to go 30 percent over average. Loya consistently hits double-digits as a wideout, doing so in four of the last five games. Even a slight downgrade would hit the double-digit value of fantasy points, which is what we're looking for out wide.
Mac Dalena, Fresno State ($6,800) vs. New Mexico State
On a small slate, you can't get picky. In combination with his salary, I'm on board with Dalena here because he's seemingly been the favorite target of quarterback Mikey Keene down the stretch. Over the last four games, Dalena has tallied seven more targets in three of them, and the one he didn't coincides with Keen leaving due to injury and Logan Fife taking over under center when Erik Brooks led the way with a team-high 10. I'll take my chances with Dalena at a salary $400 cheaper, given that he's likely to see more volume and chances to produce.
GPP Plays: Chris Bellamy ($5,200) and Donovan Faupel ($4,800), New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
I'm looking down the list here for some potential value at the wide receiver position, and these two names come to mind for the Aggies. They haven't been particularly huge producers so far this year, but leading wide receiver Trent Hudson exited stage right to the transfer portal before the bowl game, leaving a significant void in snaps on the outside. Bellamy has been listed alongside Hudson as the other "Z" receiver on the depth chart and is the only one listed at the position for the bowl game, so he could be in line for added reps and some additional targets in the passing attack. While Faupel isn't listed there on the depth chart, the freshman has inched his way into the wideout rotation down the stretch and has produced when given a chance, turning in five grabs for 56 yards on seven targets over the last two games. It wouldn't shock me if he also sees an uptick in snaps sans Hudson, especially given the extra prep time leading up to the bowl, and he could be a sneaky play with minimal rostership.
A couple more to consider: Jeremiah Hunter ($8,000) or Trond Grizzell ($7,000), California vs. Texas Tech