This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings Week 6 Main Slate Breakdown, Lineup Strategy and Value Plays
Short preamble this week as we're posting a little later than usual but I love this slate. We have great games for DFS all over the place, headlined by the Red River Shootout Rivalry Game and LSU-Mizzou. Those games have obvious appeal, as do the Wazzu-UCLA, Kansas-UCF and Ohio State-Maryland matchups. There are also pieces from Clemson, FSU and Florida that are worth considering. Let's dig into the slate overview and the player breakdowns for this week
Slate Overview
CFB DFS Tools
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- CFB Stats
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- CFB Advanced Team Stats with Plays per Game, Pass %, Run % and more
- CFB Strength of Schedule Metrics
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels ($9,000) LSU at Missouri
This matchup has become one of the more interesting games on this slate for our purposes as Missouri has looked legitimately good so far and LSU has fallen flat relative to preseason expectations, especially on defense. Going up to CoMo to face the Tigers of the SEC East suddenly looks less like a Win that LSU fans mark down in sharpie to something of a toss-up.
LSU's defense is in such shambles that Missouri's offense is expected to have plenty of success Saturday. And that means it'll be on Daniels on the other side to make sure that LSU's season doesn't go into total free fall.
Daniels has held up his end of the bargain thus far with over 3,000 total yards (1,711 passing, 292 rushing) and 19 total touchdowns through five games. He currently holds the belt for highest fantasy points per game on average (39.4) and another huge game could be in the offing Saturday.
Daniels' talent alone makes him a worthwhile play here despite the $9K price tag, and the game script is such that fading him could be a big problem. This game is a half-point off the pace for having the highest total on the slate (63.5) and with LSU as just a 5.5-point favorite, this will be competitive throughout and Daniels will have to bring his A-Game for 60 minutes.
Smash spot here for Daniels. $9,000 is worth it, and there are enough value elsewhere on the board to make him fit into your lineup without sacrificing too much.
Brady Cook ($7,400) Missouri vs. LSU
We laid out the appeal for this game in the Daniels writeup, so let's get straight to what makes Cook a strong play this weekend. For one, $7400 is a bargain relative to his production thus far and that price tag is actually cheap enough to where he can be paired with Daniels as part of a game stack.
Missouri has made some great adjustments on offense this season and it's paying significant dividends. Cook has almost reached his touchdown count from a season ago (14) with 11 on 241 fewer attempts. Unsurprisingly, his YPA has also skyrocketed from 7.1 last year to 10.4. I don't think that the rushing production he posted early in the season will carry over to this game, but that's fine if he's pushing for 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes. Given LSU's defensive struggles, that type of stat line is very much on the table.
Outside of the game against Mississippi State, each Power 5 team LSU has played has posted YPA's of at least 9.3 to go with at least three passing touchdowns. Cook will be chalky but this game is full of good chalk in my opinion.
Kyle McCord ($8,100) Ohio State vs. Maryland
I'm not even a huge McCord guy, but him being 10th-highest-priced quarterback on the slate is just too good to pass up. I'd play him over Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,400) 10 times out of 10 even if the salaries were flipped.
Ohio State checks in as a 19.5-point favorite, which is significant but not to the level where we need to be concerned about the Buckeyes emptying the bench by the third quarter. McCord and the Bucks are coming off a bye, too, and will be well-rested for this home matchup.
Even if McCord is a cut or two below his quarterback predecessors at Ohio State, he's still solid if nothing else and he has guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka to throw to. We don't need to overthink this one too much.
Running Back
We have a lot of appealing options on the board here at varying price points. The weakest run defenses, by the numbers, are Virginia Tech, LSU, UCF, Purdue and Vanderbilt. That means that things are looking up for Florida State, Mizzou, Kansas, Iowa and Florida backfields, and we'll touch on a few of those below along with some other worthwhile plays.
Trey Benson ($6,600) Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
Florida State is coming off the bye and is the biggest favorite on the board as it gets set to host Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a nice win against Pittsburgh last week to wash the stink off of its three-game losing streak that included losses to Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall. Still, that's a three-game losing streak against Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall. Yuck.
While I do wonder whether FSU will get up enough for this game to cover the spread, it should win handily nonetheless and the run game will be heavily featured. Benson is the leader of this backfield, though his efficiency has been a tick below last season's numbers and Florida State hasn't leaned heavily on him with just 42 carries through four games. Clemson's defense bowed up to stop him and succeeded, and LSU stymied him for the most part as well. Benson, unsurprisingly, carved up Southern Mississippi and Boston College for a combined 149 yards and four touchdowns on 23 carries (6.4 YPC). Virginia Tech's defense is much more in line with those two teams and could be in for a long afternoon Saturday.
Benson has slight workload concerns as, again, FSU hasn't had to lean on him that much yet and should be able to build a commanding lead here. Even so, Benson should challenge for ~15 carries that would be more than enough for him to inflict some serious damage on the Hokies.
If you're looking for cheaper exposure to the Florida State backfield, Lawrance Toafili ($5,100) isn't exactly a bargain bin play but he has a role and offers upside as a pass-catcher. He is more athletic than anyone on Virginia Tech's defense and should be able to rip off a big play or two.
Carson Steele ($5,600) UCLA vs. Washington State
People are perplexed that the undefeated Cougs are underdogs in LA on Saturday against an unranked UCLA team. It's understandable why that might be. Wazzu has been great thus far and has banked quality wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State. That said, this is Washington State's first game outside the friendly confines of the Palouse and UCLA has a Top-20 rushing offense that's ripping off nearly 6.0 yards per carry and I expect that to be a major factor Saturday.
Now, in picking Steele there is a bit of risk. Quarterback Dante Moore takes plenty of rushes himself and TJ Harden ($5,000) has worked his way into an even split with Steele over the last two weeks. Still, Steele should be in line for double-digit carries and despite his dud against Utah, he's still averaging nearly 7.0 YPC. This is a player who finished last season with 180-or-more rushing yards in three of his last four games. Yes it was against MAC competition, but his opponents knew he was getting the ball and they still couldn't stop him. A true breakout game is coming for Steele and I'm saying this is the week.
For the record, I do think Harden is a viable play at his price as well. His volume is playable and Harden is averaging over 7.0 YPC. Just don't expect him to help much in the pass-catching department.
Cody Schrader ($6,900) Missouri vs. LSU
This one almost feels like a trap, but I'm walking into it anyway. LSU has been getting embarrassed defensively so far and it doesn't look like help is on the way with Duce Chestnut being away from the team. The Bayou Bengals are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game of any team on this slate (169.2) and teams are averaging 5.0 yards per carry against them. That's very un-LSU-like.
As for Schrader, he checks in with a hefty 46 percent rushing share in an offense that runs it 55.6 percent of the time. LSU is already going to have its hands full stopping an explosive passing game keyed by the Brady Cook-Luther Burden connection. That's a passing stack that will be popular, and for good reason, but Schrader is a good way to get at the Mizzou offense that might also give some leverage in terms of roster percentage. Schrader is up to 463 yards and three touchdowns on 81 carries through five games and should see plenty of opportunities against light boxes Saturday. The fact that he's the third-highest salaried running back on the board should help keep his roster percentage down as well.
Devin Neal ($6,300) and Daniel Hishaw ($4,700) Kansas vs. Central Florida
Jason Bean has already been announced as the starter with Jalon Daniels still dinged up, which should shift all of the rushing volume to Neal and Hishaw. Neal is the optimal play if you can fit him into your lineup; he has a 37 percent rushing share and is peeling off 6.75 yards per carry to go with five rushing touchdowns through five games. He's also a threat in the passing game with 13 catches for 155 yards and a score on 16 targets. Neal has drawn at least three targets in four of his five games.
Hishaw, meanwhile, is a strong bargain option. His rushing share stands at a respectable 23 percent and he had the same amount of work as Neal did against Texas last week. He has racked up 279 yards and four touchdowns on 41 carries, good for a 6.8 YPC mark and is finding the end zone on ~10 percent of his carries.
With a home matchup against UCF, which is one of the weaker defenses on the slate, both Neal and Hishaw should be able to return value at their respective price tags Saturday.
Montrell Johnson ($5,800) Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt catches Florida at a tough time as it has to go down to The Swamp to face a Gators team looking to flush last week's blowout loss to Kentucky. It won't surprise you to see that Vanderbilt's defensive metrics are unimpressive across the board, so we can put that in the Pro column for considering the Florida run game. To be fair, the Gators have not been great on the ground so far, averaging just 145.6 yards per game at a 4.0 YPC clip. Getting Vandy at home should help those numbers, though.
With Johnson, it will be important to monitor Trevor Etienne's status leading up to kickoff because if he is available, it could cut into Johnson's workload. No Etienne would give Johnson something close to a monopoly in the Florida backfield though. Johnson is chugging along at a middling 4.52 YPC average and has three touchdowns on 56 carries to go with 12 grabs for 80 yards and a score on 15 targets. We're looking at a potentially busy day for Johnson in a favorable setup against an inferior opponent. If he can't capitalize in that situation, well...
Wide Receiver
We have some easy calls at receiver this week. The point-per-dollar figures are too good to pass up for players like Brian Thomas ($6,100) and Malik Nabers ($6,500), who have 13 receiving touchdowns and over 1,000 receiving yards between the two of them. Luther Burden ($6,900) is also an attainable wideout option from the all-important LSU-Mizzou game and he hardly needs any further explanation at this point. His teammate, Theo Wease ($5,500) is another interesting option who has drawn double-digit targets in two of his last three games.
There was also an interesting development this week as Devontez Walker was finally cleared to play. Leave it to the NCAA to do everything it can to make itself look bad before ultimately caving. Anyway, Walker transferred to UNC this offseason and was expected to be the No.1 option for Drake Maye. He racked up 921 yards and 11 scores with Kent State last season and should be able to hit the ground running Saturday against Syracuse. He's minimum priced ($3,000), and with how public his eligibility saga was, Walker will be on everyone's radar now that he's back in action. Having a player of this ilk at $3K changes the slate entirely as almost everyone will use him as a Bingo Free Space. I can't in good conscience say to fade him, but just remember that rostering him this weekend will not help to differentiate you in larger field tournaments.
With those rants out of the way, let's look at some other WR options this week.
Ricky Pearsall ($7,400) Florida vs Vanderbilt
It's understandable to see the other values at receiver and just scroll right past Pearsall (WR3 on the slate). Florida's offense is nothing special, the Gators are 18.5-point favorites in a game with the fourth-lowest total on the slate (51.5). I get it. But hold up for a second while I try to sell you on Pearsall.
For one, Pearsall has a 27.3% target share and is cooking with that volume at 10.9 YPT with two touchdowns. He accounts for 34 percent of Florida's receiving yards. In other words, he is the Florida passing game. With a high volume projection going into Saturday, Pearsall is in a great setup to put up big numbers against a leaky Vanderbilt secondary.
So much of the field will be chasing the sub-$7K guys with upside that Pearsall may end up being way under-rostered for his projection.
Marvin Harrison ($8,900) Ohio State vs. Maryland
With the crazy values elsewhere on the board, this may be the first (and only?) time all season where we don't see heavy roster percentage for Harrison. I'll be making plenty of lineups focusing on the LSU-Mizzou wideouts as well, but I'd feel awfully anxious to leave Harrison out of my portfolio this weekend.
It feels like it's being understated how ugly this game could get for Maryland. The Terps are on the road and the Buckeyes are coming off the bye. Maryland has played admirably thus far and should be ranked (MD bias, sorry) but it has never been remotely competitive at the Shoe. Their smallest margin of defeat was 2015, when it lost 49-28. The last three times these teams have met in Columbus, Ohio State has scored at least 60 points. And yet, it feels like OSU is getting slept on for DFS this week. At least by usual OSU standards.
Harrison has had a mixed bag this season by the box score, but let's not kid ourselves. He's the best receiver in college football. Maryland has a decent secondary and yet it feels like it would be a win for the Terps to hold Harrison to something like 120 yards and a touchdown. The ankle issue that bugged him against Notre Dame is behind him now with the week off and he is in line to put up huge numbers Saturday.
On the other side of this one, Maryland should be in catch-up mode throughout and that means plenty of targets to go around for the Terps wideouts. Kaden Prather ($5,200),Tai Felton ($5,500) and Jeshaun Jones ($5,600) all have appeal as run-back options to any build with an Ohio State stack. Felton has been the best of the bunch in terms of efficiency (12.1) and touchdown production (3) over the last three weeks, for what it's worth.
Tyler Brown ($5,300) Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Brown is starting to emerge as a legitimate threat in the Clemson offense and with the Tigers fielding a receiving corps that's a little underwhelming compared to what we've grown accustomed to, he really may be the best of the bunch for this weekend. Wake Forest has been okay against the pass thus far (228.5 yards per game allowed, 7.1 YPA) but it also allowed 314 yards and three passing touchdowns against Vanderbilt.
Clemson's offense likely isn't a threat to put up 40 on Saturday, but we do have an implied total of 36.75 points to play around with. Cade Klubnik is starting to round into form and he and Brown are clearly developing a rapport. Over the last two games, Brown has caught 13 passes for 237 yards. He has no touchdowns in that sample, but with that type of volume, there could be some correction on the TD luck on Saturday.
GPP Targets
Kyron Drones ($5,400) Virginia Tech at Florida State
Going back to the well on Drones here as he continues to post solid production while his salary remains in the bargain bin. Drones has put up 24.9 and 36.2-point outings in the last two weeks and there are some positive factors for him heading into Saturday. Florida State may be a heavy favorite, but this also feels like a potential letdown spot coming off a bye after a hellacious September schedule. The 'Noles already flirted with disaster once in their narrow win over Boston College and I'm not sold that they've fixed the "Play Down To Their Competition" issue just yet.
With Drones we will need to do some pregame monitoring in the off-chance Grant Wells is healthy enough to play, but given how well Drones has done of late, it would be a head-scratcher to not let him get another start.
Maybe I'm wrong and Florida State takes care of business Saturday. Even in that case, returning value on a $5,400 price tag is a very low bar to clear and Drones has proven that he's more than capable of doing so. He has reliable rushing production with double-digit carries in each of the last three games, along with four rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Graham Mertz ($6,400) Florida vs. Vanderbilt
I can't believe I'm writing about Graham Mertz in a DFS article. At $6,400 at home against Vanderbilt, though, I'm forced to. Vanderbilt gives up 7.8 YPA to opposing quarterbacks and 261 passing yards per game on average. $6,400 is just too cheap for a starter on a decent team in this type of matchup to ignore. It helps that he has an easy stacking partner in Ricky Pearsall ($7,400) as he commands a 27% target share.