This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Notre Dame vs. Navy
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Although few would have predicted at the beginning of the season that serious playoff implications would be involved in a Notre Dame/Navy matchup, that's exactly the case this week, as both teams are ranked and jockeying for position in the new 12-team playoff. The game will take place on a neutral site at MetLife Stadium. Considering how the Jets and Giants are playing, the game might be the most exciting game played on its field this fall.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Notre Dame -13.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Navy +14 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 50 (-115 Caesars Sportsbook), Under 50.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -500 (BetMGM), Navy +440 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Army bets drove the spread down to 11.5 at one point this week, but the public began hitting the Irish hard, causing the spread to spiral up again. Things could get dangerous if the spread gets over 14, but I believe that's the magic number where Vegas will even out its books. The total has been relatively static, and you should be able to find a similar bet right up to game time.
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Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Picks for Week 9
Let's talk about Navy first. They are unbeaten, but have they played anyone worth mentioning? Their best win probably came against Memphis, where they won 56-44 as the underdog. They've embarrassed inferior opponents but haven't faced a quality FBS team yet. Navy runs a variable of the triple option and basically lives and dies by the run. While that aspect of Navy's offense has been impressive, the Irish have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, and they've allowed an average of 113 rushing yards per game. The metric that stands out is Points Allowed, where Notre Dame ranks 11th in the country with 11.9 points allowed. The Irish have bounced back well after the humiliating loss to Northern Illinois, and the offense has caught up to the superior defense with good metrics of its own. They rank ninth nationally with 5.8 yards per rushing play and average almost 400 yards of total offense per game.
The bottom line: Compared to Navy's other opponents, Notre Dame is on another planet. No one has been able to run or throw on them with much success, and Louisville was the only team that has scored over 16 points against them. Navy's defense allows almost 400 yards per game to opponents, which will allow too many opportunities for the Midshipmen to overcome.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Expert Pick: Notre Dame -13.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Notre Dame vs. Navy Predictions for Week 9
The key for Notre Dame is containing Blake Horvath, who is the best-rushing quarterback in the country with a sneaky passing ability. The team's smartest tactic is lulling you into complacency by keying against the run. Then, when you least expect it, Horvath tosses a ball over the middle to Eli Heidenreich, and you're left wondering what happened six points later. Coach Marcus Freeman knows that this is how Navy can trick you, and he'll have his team prepared for it. Riley Leonard also has some keen rushing skills, and he's a much better passer than Horvath. Inferior quarterbacks have had a field day against the Midshipmen, and I have little doubt that Leonard will get the connection with Beaux Collins going early and often while mixing in runs from Jeremiyah Love to open up the passing lanes. Navy wins games by outscoring you. Notre Dame's defense won't let that happen. The Midshipmen's Cinderella run ends here.
Notre Dame 42-21
