College Football DFS Picks: Week 12 Saturday Night Slate Plays and Lineup Strategy

The major sites share six games Saturday night, but we will also get to the two exclusive games for DraftKings as we tackle a high-powered Saturday night slate.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Tennessee (-21.6) @ South Carolina O/U: 66.5

Iowa State (-3) vs. Texas Tech O/U: 47.5

Mississippi (-1.5) @ Arkansas O/U: 64.5

Oklahoma (-7) vs. Oklahoma State O/U: 67

USC (-2) @ UCLA O/U: 76.5

Wake Forest (-9.5) vs. Syracuse O/U: 58.5

LSU (-14.5) vs, UAB O/U: 50.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Washington (-30.5) vs. Colorado O/U: 62.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

It's no surprise that USC/UCLA has the highest projected total, and we are all over it. Conversely, we barely touched Iowa State or Texas Tech, and the potential loss of Spencer Sanders kept us away from Oklahoma State. As outlined below, I am a proponent of stacking USC receivers while giving some cheaper quarterbacks opportunities as potential S-FLEX options.

WEATHER REPORT

UAB/LSU: 49 degrees, 60 percent chance of rain

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QUARTERBACK

Rather than hammer the quarterbacks at the Rose Bowl tonight, I'm going to save the Trojans and Bruins for other positions and attempt to find value elsewhere on the slate. I think Caleb Williams and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will do just fine, but they will also be painfully obvious and way too popular for my taste.

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (DK $8,200, FD $11,200) @ South Carolina

While some might see this as a trap game for the Vols, there's nothing to suggest that the Gamecocks have enough firepower to play the spoiler at home. Few defenses have been able to stop Hooker and his Heisman-worthy season. With 2,888 yards, 24 touchdowns and only two picks, Hooker should be able to shred a defense that ranks 72nd in the country against the pass. Hooker can also burn you on the ground, and he has over 400 yards and five touchdowns when using his feet only.

Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (DK $7,600, FD $9,800) vs, Oklahoma State

It's been a rough go for the Sooners this season, with the Brent Venables era starting much slower than expected. It hasn't stopped Gabriel from putting up superior numbers, with 2m217 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions through the air, and 249 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Oklahoma may receive a late gift in the form of a Spencer Sanders (undisclosed) absence, but Gabriel is already set up well against a defense ranked 240th against the pass. The Sooners will have the benefit of a home crowd where Gabriel has played markedly better than his road appearances.

Also consider: Sam Hartman, Wake Forest (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) vs. Syracuse

RUNNING BACK

Without a doubt, you have to consider Zach Charbonnet (DK $8,000, FD $10,600). He sets up about as well as possible against a USC defense that isn't special in any particular area. You can also assume he'll be excessively popular, so we'll try to locate some other options, although you risk falling off the pace if you fade him.

Sean Tucker, Syracuse (DK $6,200, FD $8,400) @ Wake Forest

There were some concerns earlier in the week about Tucker's health, but he doesn't have an injury tag and appears good to go against Wake. Tucker has 829 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground this season, a total that was lower than expected, but still excellent compared to other rushers in the conference. The Demon Deacons are typically weaker against the pass, but the Orange will need to establish a run game to allow for better pass opportunities. That dimension of Syracuse's offense may be hampered by a potential absence from Garrett Shrader, who is banged up and could miss this one.

Raheim Sanders, Arkansas (DK  $6,800, FD $8,500) vs. Mississippi

This contest sets up as a defensive slugfest, but all signs point to KJ Jefferson's return, which definitely bolsters Arkansas' chances. Sanders has logged 1,147 yards and eight touchdowns on the season, and I'll be frank about why I think he'll do well in this spot. No offense to Ole Miss fans, but who have they beaten?  Kentucky certainly doesn't seem like an impressive win any longer, and they struggled to stop the run in the game, and almost every other game as well. The Rebels are extremely overrated in my book, and if the Razorbacks go up early, they'll lean on Sanders.

Jabari Small, Tennessee (DK $5,800, FD $8,300) @ South Carolina

Speaking of leaning, the Vols will do a lot of that with Small, especially if they go up early.  Small's rushing yardage isn't great, but his 11 touchdowns make him one of Tennesee's best scoring options in the red zone, and you can bet the Vols will be there often. Small will also show up with a key reception or two in every game, and he's added two addition touchdowns to his resume as a result. He's at a pretty good discount, especially on DraftKings.

Also consider: Austin Jones, USC (DK $5,400, FD $7,500) @ UCLA

WIDE RECEIVER

Jordan Addison, USC (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) @ UCLA

At the top, I had a decision to make between Addison and Jalin Hyatt, but South Carolina probably has a better secondary than UCLA, so I am going to opt for the higher-paced matchup ad take Addison. Defenses have keyed on Addison all season, but in recent weeks, the opposition has found that Caleb Williams has a host of other excellent wideouts to target, so rotating a safety over to double Addison may cause more headaches. I think you can target guys like Brenden Rice and Tahj Washington as well, but don't forget that Mario Williams will be out of street clothes and possibly on the field as well. Ok, maybe I've just endorsed the entire receiving corps, but with a QB like Williams, you will fare well with a Trojan wideout stack.

Marvin Mims, Oklahoma (DK $7,200, FD $7,500) vs. Oklahoma State

I wasn't as high on Mims before looking at the data, but with a plum matchup against a weak Cowboys pass defense and excellent salary placement, I think you have to go here despite Mims' less-than-stellar scoring history. He has 776 yards on the season but only four touchdowns, so while his PPR numbers will help out, you can't depend on trips to the end zone for this pick. The matchup is just too good for Gabriel, and Mims will be the prime beneficiary.

Oronde Gadsden, Syracuse (DK $5,900, FD $7,700) @ Wake Forest

I wanted to give you some cheap exposure against Wake's weak pass defense, but you have to put an asterisk next to Gadsden due to the uncertainty at quarterback. I give him a green light if Shrader plays because he targets Gadsden a ridiculous amount. He has 700 receiving yards off of 42 receptions and has six touchdowns to his credit.

If you're playing on DraftKings, stay tuned as the outlier games for the site have a ton of firepower to offer.

Washington @ Colorado

No big deal - only the best passer in the nation is featured in this game, but will the Huskies even need Michael Penix ($7,900) in this potential blowout? Honestly, probably not, which is why I like Wayne Taulapapa ($6,000) and Cameron Davis ($5,100) a lot as the key running backs, and I would even consider going deeper into the roster with Richard Newton ($3,100). I think Penix and key wideouts Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan will enjoy a great first half, but will that be enough to justify an add?  I'm not sure, but you have to consider them nonetheless. I had had eyes on Alex Fontenot ($4,400) as an attendee of Colorado's last game against USC, and he was impressive against USC's volatile defense. Washington isn't great against the run either but probably stronger than the Trojans, so Fontenot should be one of Colorado's only bright spots.

LSU vs. UAB

There's a lot of talent to e had here too, and I think the Tigers should be worried about UAB tonight. I'm actually higher on what the Blazers have to offer. DeWayne McBride ($7,700) is one of the best backs in the country and is good to go Saturday, and Dylan Hopkins ($5,200) is a good dual-threat quarterback who has an elite pass catcher in Trea Shropshire ($5,100). Of course, LSU has a lot of talent, but I've never been very high on Jayden Daniels, and while he's managed the team effectively, he hasn't thrown the ball enough to make the wideouts very productive, especially recently. I also think his salary is a little high, and while you will get good rushing numbers from him, UAB's pass defense is excellent and I wouldn't trust him in that department. Josh Williams ($5,100) is probably my favorite play for the Tigers.