College Football DFS: Night Slate, Week 1

The two major sites provide an almost identical slate for Saturday night's contests. The outlier games are the Mississippi State/South Alabama game (FanDuel) and the Missouri State/Oklahoma State game (DraftKings).  We will briefly touch on those games at the conclusion of the article, and both games have some interesting contrarian options.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Syracuse (-1) @ Ohio O/U: 56

Texas Tech (+1) @ Houston  O/U: 64.5

Oregon State (+7.5) @ Purdue O/U: 68.5

Georgia (+3) @ Clemson O/U: 51

Florida Atlantic (+23.5) @ Florida O/U: 52

Kent State (+29.5) @ Texas A&M O/U: 67.5

LSU (-3) @ UCLA O/U: 65

Southern Miss (+1.5) @ South Alabama O/U: 56.5 (FANDUEL ONLY)

Missouri State (+38.5) @ Oklahoma State O/U: 58.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

As we look a the Vegas numbers, we notice that some of the more dynamic games on the slate look like a DFS trap at first glance.  For example, the Georgia/Clemson game sports one of the lowest O/U totals on the slate. I wouldn't place too much stock in that number, however. While a higher game total like LSU/UCLA will certainly carry some worthy selections, the game in Charlotte will definitely turn in some elite numbers and with greater frequency.

QUARTERBACK

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson (DK $7,500, FD $8,100) vs. Georgia

If you look at DJU's two starts in place of Trevor Lawrence, the numbers are outstanding. He averaged almost 400 passing yards per game against two of the toughest teams on their schedule (Notre Dame and Boston College). Now, the spotlight is bright in a starting role, and his tenure couldn't begin in a more difficult scenario. Georgia's defensive front will give him a lot of trouble, but the Bulldogs' secondary has some holes. Most intriguing is recent transfer corner Derion Kendrick, who left Clemson for Athens. Kendrick knows Clemson's offensive mechanics, but I'm guessing that this will be a leveling game between the minds up in the boxes.  Expect some unfamiliar routes to be thrown on that side of the ball, and I think this is where DJU will exploit the opponent.

Dustin Crum, Kent State (DK $6,500, FD $7,500) @ Texas A&M

I expect the Aggies to win the day here, but the idea of a potent passer like Crum playing from behind is a very appealing prospect. Like many programs, we can write off 2020, but one look at his 2019 campaign as a sophomore, you see the value. Crum completed almost 70 percent of his passes and put up an impressive 20:2 TD/INT ratio.  Granted, the Golden Flashes were destroyed by ranked teams like Auburn and Wisconsin during that season, but Crum was still able to muster a respectable line in those contests. He has value as a runner as well, totaling 11 rushing touchdowns in his college career. He may not be the sexiest pick, but if you're looking for an S-FLEX discount, Crum is worth a look.

Jack Plummer, Purdue (DK $7,800, FD $8,600) vs. Oregon State

I like the Vegas numbers for this game, and the scenario sets up well for Plummer, as he'll be eager to prove why he's the best option at quarterback after a hard-fought camp battle. Plummer went on a tear in the final three weeks of the abbreviated 2020 season, completing 71 percent of his passes and throwing eight touchdowns with only two picks. He amassed almost 1000 yards in only three games. He isn't especially mobile, but he might be the best-positioned signal-caller on the slate against Oregon State, who will keep things close.

Also consider: JT Daniels, Georgia (DK $5,700, FD $7,600), Emory Jones, Florida (DK $7,300, FD $11,000)

RUNNING BACK

Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M (DK $6,100, FD $10,200) vs. Kent State

Spiller is a bargain on DraftKings, but FanDuel has him priced more appropriately. He's in a great spot against Kent State, as this game could get out of hand in the second half. If you look at past games where the Aggies have a huge edge, Spiller sticks around. Aside from getting bottled up against Alabama, he was a consistent presence in every game. If you went cheap at QB on FanDuel, you should still be able to afford him.

Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (DK $4,500, FD $6,200) vs. LSU

I love this pick, and I can't believe he is this cheap. The Michigan transfer picked apart the Hawai'i defense and put up a rushing tour-de-force alongside Brittian Brown. Although I am no fan of the Bruins, I'm setting aside that bias and firing up Charbonnet in most of my lineups. LSU is potentially a much tougher defensive opponent, but UCLA's surprisingly stalwart defense should help control the clock, allowing the Bruins to construct some long drives fueled by their run game.

Zander Horvath, Purdue (DK $6,600, FD $8,800) vs. Oregon State

Horvath is a less-expensive pivot from Spiller, and I've done a lot of mix-and-match with the two of them. Although they are completely different, I have them as pretty interchangeable on paper, but for different reasons. The only knock on Horvath is that the Boilermakers haven't used him in many goal-line situations. One would expect a talented back like Horvath to have more than five rushing touchdowns over three years, but unfortunately, that's the number.  He is one of the best pass-catchers out of the backfield on the slate, however. That's why I like him as a stack with Plummer.

Also consider: Devon Achane, Texas A&M (DK $5,800, FD $6,300), De'Montre Tuggle, Ohio (DK $6,400, FD $8,400)

WIDE RECEIVER

David Bell, Purdue (DK $7,600, FD $9,800) vs. Oregon State

He commands a high price, but you won't be disappointed, especially if you're stacking him with Plummer.  His QB has him in his sights on almost every play, so much so that his target-to-reception rates leave a bit to be desired. He racked up over 1000 receiving yards as a freshman and was on pace to eclipse that by about 200 yards in his abbreviated sophomore campaign. Just like Plummer, the game sets up extremely well for him, and he is worth every penny on this slate. Milton Wright (DK $6,800, FD $6,800) is Plummer's second target and is also in play.

Kaylon Geiger, Texas Tech (DK $6,400, FD $7,100) @ Houston

There's always a game or two on every slate that doesn't get the love it deserves, and this contest is one of them. Let's not forget that Tyler Shough made his way to the Red Raiders after leading Oregon to a Pac-12 title, and he will give Tech's receiving corps a shot in the arm.  I'm not discounting Erik Ezukanma as the top target, but Geiger is a lesser-known quantity and won't be the main focus of the Houston secondary.  He has amassed 141 receptions, 1,625 yards and eight touchdowns in two years with the team and is a better deep threat than Ezukanma.

Justyn Ross, Clemson (DK $6,300. FD $7,500) vs. Georgia

Six months ago, things didn't look very promising for Justyn Ross. It's a miracle that he is even playing after a spinal injury threatened his future in football. Nevertheless, he is medically cleared to play. Georgia will have to ignore most of the tape they have on Ross, however. For the first time in his career, he'll be playing at the slot, something he's never done before. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the new role. I want a Clemson receiver in this game, and if you don't trust Ross, pivot to E.J. Williams (DK $4,200, FD $6,200). There are many mouths to feed at Wide Receiver U, but this youngster is special and has been described as a cross between previous Tigers Mike Williams and Sammy Watkins.  Not bad company at all.

Also consider: Ja'Shaun Poke, Kent State (DK $6,100, FD $6,400), Nathaniel Dell, Houston (DK $6,000, FD $6,800)

Southern Mississippi @ South Alabama (FANDUEL)

For an outlier game, this contest is rich with great under-the-radar targets.  Leading the bunch is South Alabama's Jalen Tolbert ($9,200), one of the most talented wideouts in the country.  He considered going pro but decided to stick around for his senior season to hopefully up his profile and churn out a second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Jake Bentley ($8,000) will be a great stack with Tolbert if you go that direction. On the other end of the ball, Frank Gore, Jr. ($7,300) is a chip off the old block and a star in the making. He leads Southen Miss' rushing attack while Trey Lowe ($7,100) and Jason Brownlee ($7,700) head an underrated corps of wideouts.

Missouri State @ Oklahoma State (DRAFTKINGS)

Admittedly, I'm not fond of this game because it is very likely that the contest will get out of hand early. For that reason, I think you can only back talent from the Cowboys here. Granted, Oklahoma Stare has many new faces, and Spencer Sanders ($7,700) will be navigating with unfamiliar talent around him, but you can take a look at their starters and pivot to some of them if you are behind in a GPP.  Otherwise, I am largely fading this game.