College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Rivalry Week DFS Plays

CFB DFS: DraftKings College Football DFS Week 14 Main Slate

I can't believe we're here already. It feels like just yesterday the season was starting, and I was making fun of Arch Manning on the internet for the Ohio State game.

I'm still making fun of him, but the Ohio State game still feels so recent.

Now we're onto Rivalry Week, and while some of the high-octane action will be taking place on Friday and therefore not on this slate, we still have some great options. 

And with it being Thanksgiving week, I'd like to express my gratitude to all of those who have been reading along all season. Let's cap it off with a great week in DFS. 

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides, with little worry about the star players being pulled, unlike when a game gets lopsided. 

Here are this week's games to target:

Tennessee (-2.5) vs Vanderbilt (O/U 65.5)

Oh mama. Playoff stakes on the line in this game? Diego Pavia's last word for his Heisman candidacy? Two bad defenses and Top 10 offenses? Turn it up.

Both offenses are balanced in terms of run/pass split, but Tennessee is markedly more up-tempo (73 plays per game) than Vandy (62).

You've got to pay through the nose for Pavia ($9,600), but the other options in this game are palatable. His top targets are Eli Stowers ($6,500),  Junior Sherrill ($5,400) and Trey Richardson ($5,200). Richardson and Sherrill each had monster games last week, which could have the field chasing those points and avoiding Stowers, who has been the most consistent producer this season. All three are viable with great YPT figures and target shares.

Tennessee is keyed by Joey Aguilar ($7,900), who has been good on balance but has had a couple of no-shows as well. Luckily, this is a soft matchup, and Aguilar has mostly taken advantage of those. Braylon Staley ($5,900), Chris Brazell ($5,600) and Mike Matthews ($4,800) are his top weapons. Matthews has the fewest targets of the group but is also explosive with his opportunities, averaging 11.9 YPT to lead the group.

Other notables

Baylor (-3) vs Houston (O/U 58.5)

Arkansas (+2.5) vs Missouri (O/U 57.5)

Quarterback

The Vandy-Tennessee game with Diego Pavia and Joey Aguilar gives us two really strong QB options to build around. It'll be tough to feel great about any lineup that doesn't have at least one of them. That's not to say we don't have the ability to spread the wealth with some other quarterbacks, though. Here are a few catching my eye:

Conner Weigman, Houston ($8,800) at Baylor

It's always dangerous to think Vegas has something wrong, but Houston's team total sitting under 28 points feels low this weekend. Baylor's defense is among the worst in the P4 and the nation. No matter how you slice it, whether it's against the pass or against the run, Baylor is a sieve.

They're slightly better against the pass as we'll detail below in the RB section, but this still sets up well for Weigman. The Texas A&M transfer has strong road splits, completing 66% of his passes with an 8.4 YPA. Weigman also makes up a decent chunk of Houston's rushing production. He has over 500 rushing yards and nine rushing scores. That sample includes two 100-yard rushing games. Baylor has struggled mightily against mobile QBs dating back to the season opener against Auburn. (Remember they made Jackson Arnold look good?) 

If you can't pony up for Pavia, Weigman is a nice consolation.

Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati ($8,600) at TCU

With this week's mention, Sorsby is now eligible for a free coffee next time he visits my imaginary coffee shop. I feel like I've written up Sorsby almost every week this season so you're probably familiar with his bona fides. He's a great runner who also takes deep shots. He has the potential to give you 300 passing yards and a rushing score each time out. 

TCU's defense is coming off a good showing but I'm not convinced it's an overly imposing unit. Additionally, Sorsby's stacking options are all easy to fit into a lineup. Cyrus Allen leads the pack at $6,000 and everyone else is $4,100 or less. 

Simply put, Sorsby + some Cincy pass-catchers is an easy way to get exposure to the projected third-highest scoring game on the slate. 

Beau Pribula, Missouri ($6,100) at Arkansas

It works in our favor that Pribula struggled in his return last week because it keeps his salary in check. Going from facing Oklahoma to facing Arkansas will feel like taking a five-pound donut off his bat, to make a baseball analogy. 

Oklahoma has the No.3 rated defense by SP+. Arkansas? 101st.

Now, Pribula coming off a leg injury likely means the rushing upside is sapped. That's unfortunate but tolerable at $6,100. He can still sling it and has some great pass-catchers to help him out. We don't need a ton from him to hit value at $6,100 but there's reason to believe he can deliver here in the regular season finale. 

Running Back

Ahmad Hardy, Missouri ($7,500) at Arkansas

This is the perfect bounce-back spot for Hardy after some tough sledding in last week's loss at Oklahoma. Hardy came into that game with three straight games of at least 97 yards, highlighted by a clean 300-yard outing against Mississippi State in which he also punched in three scores. That was against Mississippi State and its 79th-rated defense according to SP+. Arkansas checks in with the 101st. That'll work.

Kaytron Allen, Penn State ($8,500) at Rutgers

If we're going for an elite RB this week, Allen seems to be the play. There's understandable intrigue with Texas Tech's Cameron Dickey, but I have some pushback there. 

• Texas Tech has bigger fish to fry with the Big XII Championship next weekend
• Texas Tech is a 24.5-point favorite, can spread the wealth
• West Virginia has been sneaky good against the run lately, allowing 2.37 YPC in November

Allen, meanwhile, is getting fed. He's got 25 carries in each of the last two weeks and at least 20 carries in four of his last five. Rutgers has the sixth-worst rush defense in the country this month. Penn State's got a little something to play for, too, as a sixth win and bowl eligibility are on the line. I don't mind Nicholas Singleton ($6,500) as a pivot but his volume is far less predictable, which makes his value very touchdown dependent. 

Dean Connors, Houston ($6,500) vs Baylor

We know what Baylor is at this point, and that's reassuring. They have an offense that's dangerous enough to force the opposing team to keep its foot on the gas, and a defense that basically acts as a NOS boost for the opposing offense. The Bears rank 111th in defensive SP+. That's worse than OK State's!

Conners is therefore set up extremely well here. He gets a healthy share of the rushing workload for the Cougs and will get plenty of cracks at a defense that allows almost 200 yards per game on the ground. Conners is one of the better mid-range options on the board. 

Others to Consider

• Noah Whittington, Oregon ($7,100)
• Mike Washington, Arkansas ($6,200)

Wide Receivers

Duce Robinson, Florida State ($6,400) vs Florida

This feels low for Robinson, who has been one of the most productive pass-catchers in the nation down the stretch. He ranks fourth in receiving yards/game in November (120) and has three touchdowns. As you can see in the table above, Robinson is basically the entirety of FSU's passing game. Of course, that means he'll draw plenty of attention from Florida's secondary, but I'm not sure that a mediocre unit from the past 11 games suddenly becomes a lockdown group. Robinson has great PPR floor and legit 100-yard upside. That's rare to say about a player in this range.

Donovan Olugbode, Missouri ($4,300) at Arkansas

You can see Olugbode made the cut on this week's target spreadsheet. And while he has just seven combined targets in his last two outings, this should be a good spot for him. Beau Pribula got his feet back under him last week in a difficult spot at OU. Going against the Arkansas defense should make for much smother sailing for the Missouri offense. 

Olugbode has the best big play potential among the Missouri pass-catching corps and we know Arkansas is ripe to give those up as the worst passing defense on the slate. He represents a good way to get cheap exposure to a team with a good implied total facing a porous defense.

Raylen Sharpe, Arkansas ($4,300) vs Missouri

On the other side of the Missouri-Arkansas matchup we have Sharpe, who remains a high value play at a bargain salary. He's averaged eight targets per game over his last three outings and produced an 8.9 YPT figure. His catch rate lags behind a little bit, which lowers his floor in this scoring format. But Sharpe has a clear path to plentiful opportunities.

It's a tough matchup; Missouri has a great defense and pass rush. Luckily, Taylen Green can move around and extend plays, opening the door for some shots down the field for Sharpe.

Andrew Marsh, Michigan ($4,800) vs Ohio State

This one's for the bold. Michigan is facing the best defense in the country and the weather is not expected to be conducive to good passing conditions. I get all that. But I can't ignore the way Marsh has come on down the stretch.

Marsh has seen nearly 40% of Michigan's targets this past month and caught 70 percent of his looks at a strong YPT clip. Even with the weather, he should be busy Saturday especially if Michigan falls behind. We might not be getting the 100-yard bonus here, but 5+ catches and some touchdown upside is in play here at a $4,800 price tag. And if he does pop, there's a good chance you'll get some leverage on the field as most will fade the Michigan offense entirely.

Others to Consider

• Cyrus Allen, Cincinnati ($6,100)
• Josh Cameron, Baylor ($6,800)
• Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon ($5,000)
• Max Klare, Ohio State ($4,500)