College Capper: Bowl Edition Part II

Chris' Picks

Wednesday's action put me on the plus side of .500 for the first bowl week, and I could probably argue two wins in the UF-OU contest with the over, but favoring OU in anticipation of huge line movement that actually happened. Hopefully, that momentum carries over into our final column of the year. Full disclosure, I don't love a lot of the options for the second half of the bowl season. Some compelling matchups, just don't like the numbers Vegas is giving us.

San Jose State (-7.5) vs. Ball State

The Cardinals want to throw, and that's the Spartans' weakest piece defensively, but San Jose State has served me well throughout the season, and I'm a firm believer that Ball State hasn't seen a defense like this in during its MAC schedule. San Jose State hasn't allowed more than 24 points in a game all season and has scored at least 28 in all but one. The Spartans are coming off a complete performance where they beat Boise State 34-20. If you swapped Boise State for San Jose State in this matchup, on name alone the spread doubles at least. I expect Ball State to find some early success, but the Spartans will clamp down and get stops. And frankly, there's no excuse for Spartans QB, Arkansas transfer, Nick Starkel not to carve up a MAC defense.

Alabama (-19.5) vs. Notre Dame

The Tide offense just doesn't stop, keeping its foot on the gas for 60 minutes and piling up points. It feels like low-hanging fruit, and I also think Notre Dame's season-long body of work is going overlooked a bit due to the blowout in the ACC championship. But Notre Dame's defense is vulnerable downfield, and Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith should have a field day, opening lanes for Najee Harris in the process. I expect the Irish will compete better than they did in Charlotte, and Alabama has shown the propensity to be beat through the air as well. I just don't see the Irish passing game having the firepower to match points through four quarters.

North Carolina State (+2.5) vs. Kentucky

Truth be told, I don't love either side. But consider me unimpressed with Kentucky's wins. All the Wildcats have beaten are Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. I'd take the Wolfpack to beat all of those as well. Kentucky can't throw, and N.C. State is decent against the run, allowing just 4.08 ypc. Kentucky averaged 13.3 ppg in its six losses, a number buoyed by 41 scored against Mississippi. I don't trust NCST QB Bailey Hockman, but the 'Pack find ways to score, averaging 31.3 ppg. The better scoring team getting points feels right to me.

Iowa State (-4) vs. Oregon

I don't buy for a second that Oregon has fixed its run defense. The Ducks allowed only 88 yards to Cal and 38 yards to USC to close the year after allowing 833 yards in their first four games. Cal ranks 101st and USC 120th in rushing. The Cyclones, led by Breece Hall, average 5.28 ypc and ran for 28 TDs, and I look for them to go right through the Ducks while also churning clock and not allowing Tyler Shough and company many opportunities.

Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. North Carolina

I wasn't overly too concerned over North Carolina's opt outs until Saturday, when Javonte Williams joined Michael Carter, Dyami Brown and Chazz Surratt in not playing. The Tar Heels now don't have a running back with 15 carries suiting up. I think Surratt's absence could be the most important, however, as the Aggies' passing game is led by TE Jalen Wydermyer and RB Ainias Smith. They should be able to attack UNC over the middle and their OL is elite. Sam Howell will make a few plays, but unless A&M is completely unmotivated, North Carolina can't overcome that huge of a departure in talent in a few weeks of practice.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 40-36-2

GREG'S PICKS

The Iowa game was cancelled, but three of the remaining four from the first bowl week couldn't have gone better. The fourth was a stinker. Buffalo took its sweet time getting above the number, but it finally did late in the game. Liberty, however, was on the right side of the number the entire game. Only a completely absurd fumble inside the opponent's five-yard-line with under a minute left, put the cover in jeopardy, because as we all know in college football, even 6.5 points isn't safe in overtime. Things looked bleak when Wisconsin fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter, but the Badgers fought back before putting the game away in the fourth quarter.  As for the loss, Colorado just didn't show up and was barely able to hang in until halftime.

Tulsa (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State

It's always tough to get past the affiliated conferences when choosing a team facing an SEC opponent, but Mississippi State is not a team that needs to be feared just because it played in the SEC. When we last saw the Bulldogs, they looked impressive beating up on Missouri, but the Tigers had one of the worst defenses in the country this season and outside of the bizarre Georgia game, the Bulldogs failed to move the ball against any defense that wasn't a complete sieve. Tulsa struggled on offense at times this season, but its defense is stout and will have little problem containing this MSU offense. It's just a matter of the Tulsa offense getting enough momentum going at some point during the game to come out with the win in this spot.           

Cincinnati (+6.5) vs. Georgia

Georgia is an awfully big name to be laying less than a touchdown to a non-P5 team, don't you think? Yeah, the oddsmakers know what's going on here and know that Cincinnati is going to bring it. Will Georgia show up, though? It's hard to say, but there is a decent track record of SEC teams that had high aspirations, failing to show up for their bowl games. To be honest, though, I don't care if Georgia shows up; I'm not sure the Bulldogs are a touchdown better than Cincinnati. Georgia looked better down the stretch, but it played Mississippi State, South Carolina and Missouri to close the season. In other words, this resurgence toward the end of the season was fool's gold. Cincinnati, meanwhile, passed every test along the way this season and the Bearcats will pass their final as well.                 

Notre Dame (+19.5) vs. Alabama 

 It's funny, as I was typing Notre Dame, I accidentally typed, "Notre Same" and I chuckled because that's what most people are assuming we'll see in this game — the same old Notre Dame, failing to show up for a playoff game. Honestly, I'm not sure this is the same old Notre Dame team. I actually think this version is the best we've seen in a while, but this pick is actually based on Alabama and more specifically its defense. No team can stop the 'Bama offense — and I don't expect the Fighting Irish to stop it either — but the Tide have shown on multiple occasions this season that it has a hard time slowing any capable offense. I'm not comfortable with this pick, only because of the firepower on the 'Bama side, but I have a feeling that Notre Dame can score enough to stay within this number.

Ohio State (+7) vs. Clemson

I'm not going to lie, I'd much rather be on the other side of both of these semifinal games, but I'm using my head and it's telling me to take the sides I've chosen. The setup for this game is almost identical to last season. Clemson had underperformed at points and an explosion was expected, while Ohio State looked lethargic in the Big Ten championship and a route seemed likely … and then the game started and Ohio State looked really good. So good, that Clemson was lucky to get out of there with a win. These aren't the same teams, of course, but they are similar enough that we can go back to last year to get a feel for how this might play out. I will say that if Ohio State plays anything like it did against Northwestern, it'll lose by 30, but just like last year, I'm expect the Buckeyes to up their game. Again, not comfortable with this one either, but I have a feeling, especially with all the gibberish coming out of Dabo Swinney's mouth, that Ohio State is primed for its best game all season.            

Iowa State (-4) vs. Oregon

Just like last season, I underestimated Oregon leading into the Pac-12 championship and it burned me. Unlike last year, however, I'm not going to change sides heading into Oregon's bowl game. I was so impressed with Oregon last season that I chose to take its side in the Rose Bowl, which didn't work out, but things were much different last season. For starters, the Ducks had Justin Herbert, who is in the NFL now, and also the Ducks were just more impressive in the Pac-12 title game last year. They played a great game this year as well, but USC never really impressed me much, and it's not like the game was a blowout, like last year. As for Iowa State, the Cyclones have looked great in spots and poor in others, but I like the way they fought back against Oklahoma and made it a game, and I expect them to play hard through the end of the season.               

Last Week: 3-1; Season: 42-36