College Capper: Best Bets Week 4

Chris' Picks

Things didn't go as fully hoped last week, where the public money won out. I went against the grain with a couple of picks, both times on bad teams outside of the Power 5, and paid the price. Is this the week the book swings back, or should we stick with popular plays? I'm going to try and stay away from the SEC for the most part until they show us something, I'm going to stay away from my Miami Hurricanes, who look too obvious and may be due for a letdown. One final note, which may be more widely known by the time this is published, there are rumors of Virginia Tech being heavily shorthanded Saturday, which includes whispers under center. I don't trust NCST, but a small play before news breaks could reward.

Louisville (+3) at Pittsburgh

I don't want to swing too far from week to week, but Pittsburgh let me down, and their offense looks exactly as it has in year's past. A committee backfield with limited home run potential, and a high volume, low yardage passing attack that doesn't create big plays. It's that lack of big plays that dooms them, even against a Louisville defense we saw give up chunks upon chunks of yards last Saturday. The Cardinals' offense has been unstoppable through two games, and the Panthers won't be able to keep up. Louisville wins this straight up, but I'll take whatever points I'm afforded.

Tennessee (-3.5) at South Carolina

The one SEC play I'll take here. While the Gamecocks feel Colorado State transfer QB Collin Hill is an upgrade, I'm not so sure, as the level of competition he's set to face is a big step up. Tennessee figures to field a better defense than it did in 2019, and while there are questions about returning receiver production, they do have an experienced quarterback in Jarrett Guarantano, and an emerging star at RB in Eric Gray. They beat USC by 20 last year, and while this won't be that easy, I expect the Vols, who won six straight to close last season, to carry that momentum over to 2020.

Under (47.5) Duke at Virginia

Given my terrible history with totals, this will be the last time I include one if it fails. I just see no clear path to points for either side. Duke has a clear lack of offensive firepower, scoring 19 points in two games including just six last week against a Boston College defense that allowed 32.2 ppg last year. Their two games have had totals of 40 and 32 thus far. UVA has a sound back seven defensively, and have an equal lack of offensive firepower, with raw quarterback Brennan Armstrong taking over for Bryce Perkins, and plodding RB Wayne Taulapapa (4.1 YPC) leading the way.

Tulane (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi

I'm really banking on Tulane shaking off last week's incredible collapse against Navy, where they blew a 24-0 halftime lead. Southern Miss is just a bad football team at the moment, having already fired their head coach and losing consecutive games to open the year. While the players are different for the Green Wave, the system is the same. And that system led Tulane to a 30-13 win in last year's Armed Forces Bowl. They'll again get the option attack rolling, dominate time of possession and the scoreboard as a result.

Texas (-18) at Texas Tech

It's a lot of points, but there will be a lot of points scored here. Truth be told, I didn't love a lot of the remaining options and needed a fifth game. Texas Tech struggled with Houston Baptist, and while you'd expect a better effort here, it's just hard to see them staying close, as I don't see a path to many defensive stops. UT won this matchup 49-24 last year behind 349 yards passing from Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 426 yards in the season opener against UTEP. So long as this stays below three TDs, I'll feel okay.

Last Week: 2-3, Season 7-7

GREG'S PICKS

And we're back! Okay, so it was just a 2-1 week, but any winning week is a good one. You'll notice only three games recorded this past week and that's due to the postponement of the FAU game.

Let's start with the loss, Tulane -7, which looked pretty good at the half when the Green Wave was up 24, but the game flipped on its head at the half and they actually lost outright. The wins were fairly easy, which Syracuse hanging on (this time) and Cincinnati opening up in the second half against Austin Peay.

The cards are starting to look better each week as we get both more games under our belt and more options from which to choose. I've got five games this week and I'm feeling pretty good about them. 

Over (77) UCF at East Carolina 

UCF wasted no time getting its offense going this year as it posted 49 points this past weekend at Georgia Tech. This week the Knights get the 119th-ranked defense from last season. I have a strange feeling that they might be able to score some points this week. My first instinct was to side with UCF in this spot, but then I remembered that East Carolina has plenty of firepower itself and four touchdowns is a lot to cover against a team that can move the ball. UCF was lights-out on offense this past week, but the defense was just okay. I'll take the over here and hope the line stays below 80.            

Tulane (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi

I'm a little worried about the state of mind of Tulane this week after falling apart in the second-half this past week against Navy, but these kids are usually pretty resilient and I'm sure they can refocus in time for this one. Tulane has some things to work on prior to this game, but not nearly as many things as Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles have been terrible to start the season. An opening week loss to South Alabama led to the firing of their coach, which had little impact this past week as they fell to 0-2 after a home loss to Louisiana Tech. With no home-field advantage, I'm expecting the Green Wave to get back on track this week and put last week's embarrassment behind them.          

Over (51.5) West Virginia at Oklahoma State 

Sure, I'd feel a lot better if I knew that OSU QB Spencer Sanders was a go this week, but even without him, the Cowboy offense should look a lot better this week than it did this past week.  OSU was unable to get anything going after Sanders went down early in its game against Tulsa and while that's a little concerning, you have to factor in that the backup has had six days to get up to speed. West Virginia put up 56 points in its opener and while that was against Eastern Kentucky, it's still a good sign that a once potent offense is getting back on track. If Sanders plays, this one is an easy win, if not, I'm still expecting enough offense from both teams to get over this rather low number.       

Baylor (-17.5) vs Kansas

Any thoughts that Kansas would be reborn with a new coach were quickly dismissed when the Jayhawks were trucked at home by Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. Yes, Coastal Carolina. There are a couple of things that concern me here with Baylor, the first of which is the new coaching staff, but this team played in the BIG 12 Title game last year, so I'm sure there's plenty of talent remaining. Will the Bears be as good as last year? Probably not, but they won't need to be to put this game away early. This will be the Bears first game this season, however, which is also concerning, but can we really claim that Kansas got much out of that beating at the hands of COASTAL CAROLINA two weeks ago?.   

Troy (+14) at BYU

BYU looked like world-beaters in its opener, but we have to remember that the Cougars faced the worst version of Navy that entire game, so how impressive was it? It's the same version of Navy that went down 24-0 before finally getting some things figured out. BYU does look improved, but I would be careful in this spot as Troy has enough weapons to not only keep this game close but perhaps win if the Cougars aren't careful.           

Last Week: 2-1-0, Season: 3-8-0