Boca Raton Bowl Best Bets: Louisville vs. Toledo
The Toledo Rockets (8-4) and the Louisville Cardinals (8-4) meet at Flagler Credit Union Stadium on the campus of Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Florida on Tuesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. EST. The game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
The Rockets caught fire down the stretch in conference play, winning and covering the final four games. The defense was a major reason for the team going from .500 on Oct. 25 to an unbeaten November and an 8-4 record.
The Cardinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference rebounded from an ugly loss at SMU on Nov. 22, punishing rival Kentucky 41-0 in the regular-season finale to get right heading into the bowl after a rough patch.
We'll get you situated for a successful start to your football Tuesday with our best picks and predictions. Let's get started!
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Louisville vs. Toledo Boca Raton Bowl Betting Odds
Spread: Toledo +8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Louisville -8.5 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 43.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Toledo -320 (Caesars Sportsbook); Louisville +290 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Louisville vs. Toledo Boca Raton Bowl Betting Picks
The Rockets had an eventful season, and they deserved a trip to a warm-weather location for their efforts.
Toledo opened the season with a 24-16 near-miss at Kentucky, so these teams have a common opponent, as the Rockets opened their season with the Wildcats, and the Cardinals closed theirs against Kentucky.
The Rockets really leaned into a punishing defense to get the job done this season. Toledo allowed just 248.7 total yards, which ended up being No. 2 in the country, while allowing 156.5 passing yards per game, and 12.2 points per game. Both of those marks were fourth in the nation, while the Rockets allowed 92.2 rushing yards per game to check in eighth. There really weren't a lot of weak spots in the Toledo defense.
Toledo allowed 3, 9, 3 and 3 in the final four games of the season, and it allowed just a single touchdown by Ball State in garbage time on Nov. 22. The Rockets allowed 14 or fewer points in eight of their final 10 games, while going 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in that span.
Rockets QB Tucker Gleason completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,515 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while running for 144 yards and four scores. Former Ohio State recruit RB Chip Trayanum topped the charts with 950 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while averaging 5.7 yards per carry (YPC). RB Kenji Christian was good for 501 yards and four scores, tying Gleason for second in rushing touchdowns.
In the passing game, WR Junior Vandeross III was good for 75 receptions, 947 yards and 11 TDs. The rest of the team combined had 15 touchdowns, although only WR Ryder Treadway (3 TDs) had more than two scores through the air; that's how dominant Vandeross was.
Unfortunately, Jason Candle left for the head coaching job at UConn, so co-offensive coordinator Robert Weiner will serve as the interim coach. The defensive coordinator, Vince Kehres, who did such an amazing job with this unit, has pulled up stakes for the same job at Syracuse.
On the injury front, Gleason suffered an injury in the regular-season finale, and he is not expected to play. OT Stephen Gales has decided to enter the transfer portal, so he is likely to go, while defensive stars DE Malachi Davis, LB Chris D'Appolonia and S Braden Awls are in the portal, too.
Louisville suffered four losses in conference play, including a 38-6 beatdown from SMU. Its other three losses were by a total of seven points, losing to Clemson by one point on Nov. 14, and by three points each in OT losses at home to Cal and Virginia.
This is a dangerous team, however, as the Cardinals also recorded victories over CFP teams James Madison and Miami. In fact, Louisville's biggest win was 24-21 at Miami as a 10.5-point underdog in South Florida on Oct. 17.
Like Toledo, defense was the strength for Louisville. The Cardinals allowed just 300.3 total yards per game (16th in the nation), 190.6 passing yards (24th), 109.8 rushing yards (20th) and 21.1 PPG (35th).
On offense, Cardinals QB Miller Moss threw for 2,526 yards, 14 TDs and 7 INTs, while RB Isaac Brown rushed for 782 yards, 5 TDs and 8.6 YPC, while RB Keyjuan Brown added 592 yards, 7.3 YPC and six TDs, while Moss led the team with nine rushing scores.
The bad news is that WR Chris Bell (knee) suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament during the beatdown from SMU, and that was just a month ago. In addition, both Isaac Brown (leg) and Keyjuan Brown (lower leg) is also nursing an injury, and not expected to go. On defense, DLs Wesley Bailey and Rene Konga have opted out, too.
We should see a rather low-scoring game in Boca on Tuesday afternoon. One, the early start time will wreak havoc on the internal clock of both teams. Two, the heat is real in South Florida, even in December, with a forecast of around 80 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be blowing at 13-16 MPH, so that will affect the passing and kicking games, too. Toss in the fact we have opt-outs, injuries and a coach moving on, so all of those things should keep scores low.
Louisville vs. Toledo Boca Raton Bowl Best Bet: Under 43.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Louisville vs. Toledo Betting Predictions
We're going to see points at a premium, which is a shame. If Louisville was at full staff, we might see a much more entertaining game. Instead, what we get is what you would expect from a mid-week game in December. It will be slow, it will be choppy, and it will resemble more of a spring-like game, with players not usually given playing time fulfilling some big-time roles.
Last season, we saw Toledo win the GameAbove Sports Bowl against another ACC team, Pittsburgh, by a 48-46 score in 6OT on Dec. 26, 2024. That was a rarity, as Louisville is still just 2-5 in the past seven bowls since Dec. 2016.
Louisville won 35-34 over Washington in the Sun Bowl last season, and it is 3-2 in the past five postseason games. The last time the Cards played against a MAC team in a bowl, it fell to Miami (Ohio) in the GMAC Bowl in 2003.
Look for Trayanum and the Rockets to work the rush and ride it to a low-scoring win.
Score Prediction: Toledo 21, Louisville 18
Boca Raton Player Props Best Bets for Friday, December 19
Toledo RB Chip Trayanum - Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel) + Anytime TD Scorer (+120 FanDuel)
We're going to go with a two-fer on Trayanum, and we'll pray he doesn't elect to opt out at the last minute, or even in-game like we've seen from some players in the past. The former Buckeye had 91 or more rushing yards in each of his final three games, and he should find the Cardinals defense a little less formidable with Bailey and Konga opting out. And, Trayanum has scored at least one touchdown in nine straight games, totaling 11 rushing scores and 13 total TDs, so back him to not only go Over his rushing yardage projection, but he should get into the end zone once.
Louisville WR Junior Vandeross III - Longest Reception - Over 20.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Vandeross should hook up with Moss for at least one long pass play downfield, even against the stingy Rockets. The Louisville star wideout has at least one pass play of 20+ yards in each of his past two games, and seven of the previous eight games. He averaged 12.6 yards per reception, so it won't take much more to get him over the hump for this prop.
