This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Futures: ACC Football Betting Preview
College football season is right around the corner and that means it's time to break down an intriguing ACC landscape that could be seeing a shift in power from Clemson to Florida State. Check out our SEC betting preview and our Big Ten betting preview.
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Is Florida State the team to beat in the ACC?
Unlike the timid schedules, some programs elect to begin a season such as the Michigan Wolverine's first three weeks facing East Carolina Pirates, UNLV Rebels, and Bowling Green Falcons, the No. 8 Florida State Seminoles and the No. 5 LSU Tigers will square off in a monumental top-10 clash to start their seasons. Moreover, this game will be played on a neutral field at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Florida.
The winner of this marquee matchup immediately puts an impressive win on their College Football Playoff resume, but the loser is not significantly damaged by a loss. Losing a game in the last three weeks of the regular season is monumentally more damaging than losing to a Top-10 foe in the first three weeks of the season.
Florida State is led by fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell, who is 18-16 straight-up (SU) and 17-14 against the spread (ATS). Expectations are high entering the season with eight returning starters on offense including elite-talent quarterback, Jordan Travis, and 10 starters returning on defense.
Generally, any team with 17 or more starters returning including their quarterback has a tremendous advantage over teams that have 12 or fewer returning starters and a new quarterback under center. Moreover, the Seminoles attracted great talent to join their program from the college football transfer portal and getting eight 4-stars, and two 3-star players. They gained 11 players while losing 22, who left more because they knew playing time would be minimal.
You may be interested to know that games played in the first four weeks of the regular season between two top-10 ranked opponents, the favorite is 30-10 SU (75%), 19-20-1 ATS (49%), and 15-11 Under (42.3%). If the total is 58 points or lower in these matchups, the favorite has gone 16-5 (76%), 12-9 ATS (57%), and 14-7 Under (67%). Non-conference matchups of Top-10 foes that occur in the first four weeks of the regular season, the favorite is 21-8 SU (75%), 15-14 ATS (52%), and 12-8 Under (60%) with nine games not having a total. LSU is ranked higher than FSU for this matchup and the better-ranked teams that are the favorites. So, I am leaning toward a preflop bet on the Under in this matchup, currently at 56.5 points. So, the SU record, using the money line gets my attention betting LSU on the money line and may be an in-game bet if FSU scores first.
The Seminoles return 18 starters to last year's best offensive and defensive units in the ACC. Obviously, the biggest game for Norvell and his Seminoles is set for a road trip to Memorial Stadium better known as "Death Valley" Stadium in Tiger Town to take on the Clemson Tigers in Week 4 action. Having played LSU in Week 1 action will be a huge benefit for the Seminoles when they take on their second unit of Tigers. I call it team 'seasoning' and the dividends from playing a challenging schedule early on the schedule can pay off with big wins later. The Tigers will have played Duke in Week 1 priced as a 12.5-point favorite on the road, then Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic at home before hosting the Seminoles.
Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average of 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed with this coming into the season is the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red-shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, redshirt freshman Rodney Hill, redshirt junior, Lawrance Toafili, redshirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red-shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR.
After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000-yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team-high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including a team-high eight receiving TD.
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Does Clemson Have Anything Left in the Tank?
The Tigers under head coach Dabo Swinney are 161-39 SU (81%), 107-89-3 ATS (55%), and 106-91-1 Under. In home games under Swinney, they are 67-2 SU at home, 91-8 SU, 48-47-3 ATS, and 51-45-1 Under in home games, and 55-4 SU (93%), 33-24-2 ATS (58%), and 32-26-1 Under (55%) at home and facing an ACC Foe. However, the Tigers are just 23-17 SU (58%), 19-21 ATS (48%), and 22-18 Under (55%) when facing a ranked opponent under Swinney.
Swinney had an 11-win season last year and comes into the season ranked 8th in the first AP poll and will use that to motivate his team feeling slighted. The biggest problem that the Tigers faced in the past two seasons was a largely inconsistent offense that failed to produce enough scoring drives against elite defenses in the ACC. Swinney has brought in former TCU coordinator Garrett Riley to run the air raid under returning sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik. Last season, Klubnik played 10 games and completed 61 of 100 passes for 697 yards thrown, two TYD, and three interceptions. His numbers will skyrocket playing in the air raid offensive scheme and the wide receiver corps of starters Adam Randall, Beaux Collins, and Antonio Williams have the potential to combine for 2,500 receiving yards.
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Who Are the Dark Horses to Emerge in the ACC?
The Seminoles and Tigers are the pair of favorites to make the ACC Champions game priced at -185 favorites each by BetMGM. Next up in the betting markets to make the ACC Championship game are the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tarheels, both priced at +300. Next in rank are the Miami Hurricanes priced at +800 and the Pittsburgh Panthers priced at +1000. Following this group of teams, the rest of the ACC members in the North Carolina State Wolfpack, Duke Blue Devils (+2500) the Wake Forest Deacons +3000, the Syracuse Orange +4000, the Boston College Golden Eagles +5000, the Virginia Tech Hokies +6600, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10000, and Virginia Cavaliers +10000 are just not worthy contenders by any type of scenarios being played out.
The Cardinals have a new head coach in Jeff Brohm, who is a former Louisville signal caller and has attained valuable experience at Purdue and Western Kentucky. He has 13 returning starters with six on offense including quarterback Jeff Sims, who completed just 59% of his 188 pass attempts for 1,115 yards and only five TD. Too much to ask for Brohm in his first year under the helm.
The ageless legend Mack Brown returns for a second term as head coach to the Tarheels and has 18 returning starters with nine each on offense and defense including quarterback Drake Maye, who completed an elite 66% of his 517 pass attempts for 4.321 passing yards and 38 TD with just seven interceptions. Mack Brown has had eight heart-breaking single-score losses among his 18 regular season losses over the past five seasons with the Tarheels. Maybe this is the season he gets paid back for these heart-wrenching 4thquarter losses and gets a series of upset fourth-quarter wins. Of note, his Tarheels do not have to play the Seminoles or the Cardinals, but do have a road date with the Tigers in Week 12. They could be 6-0 in conference play entering that showdown with the Tigers too.
Best ACC Bets 2023 Recap
- Bet the Tarheels at +300 to make the ACC Championship game
- Bet the Tarheels to win more than 8 games +100
- Bet Clemson Under 10 wins +120
- Bet Virginia Over 3 wins -110
