This article is part of our NCAA Championship Preview series.
VILLANOVA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Matchup: The only National Championship for Villanova came in 1985, when the upstart Wildcats beat Patrick Ewing and the vaunted Georgetown Hoyas in one of the biggest upsets in tournament history. The Wildcats were a No. 8 seed, and to this day, remain the lowest seed to ever win the whole enchilada.
This year's Villanova squad has been anything but an underdog. The Wildcats have been a buzzsaw throughout the entire tournament, winning four of their five tournament games by double digits. Nova plays exceptional defense and has been shooting the lights out, particularly from long range. The Wildcats shot a staggering 71.4 percent from the field in their blowout win over Oklahoma, including 61.1 percent from three-point land. Yes, you read that correctly. Did you know the team with the highest shooting percentage in a single game in the history of the Final Four? That would be Rollie Massimino's Wildcats in the aforementioned '85 title game, when they hit a staggering 78.6 percent of their shots en route to the championship.
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Strength: Offensive efficiency. The three-point shot has been a tremendous weapon for the Wildcats during this incredible run, but Villanova is not just a team that bombs shot after shot from long range. The Wildcats shot an absurd 77.4 percent from inside the arc against Oklahoma, and not all of those makes were dunks and layups. While that percentage is insanely high, this has not exactly been an aberration for
VILLANOVA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Matchup: The only National Championship for Villanova came in 1985, when the upstart Wildcats beat Patrick Ewing and the vaunted Georgetown Hoyas in one of the biggest upsets in tournament history. The Wildcats were a No. 8 seed, and to this day, remain the lowest seed to ever win the whole enchilada.
This year's Villanova squad has been anything but an underdog. The Wildcats have been a buzzsaw throughout the entire tournament, winning four of their five tournament games by double digits. Nova plays exceptional defense and has been shooting the lights out, particularly from long range. The Wildcats shot a staggering 71.4 percent from the field in their blowout win over Oklahoma, including 61.1 percent from three-point land. Yes, you read that correctly. Did you know the team with the highest shooting percentage in a single game in the history of the Final Four? That would be Rollie Massimino's Wildcats in the aforementioned '85 title game, when they hit a staggering 78.6 percent of their shots en route to the championship.
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Strength: Offensive efficiency. The three-point shot has been a tremendous weapon for the Wildcats during this incredible run, but Villanova is not just a team that bombs shot after shot from long range. The Wildcats shot an absurd 77.4 percent from inside the arc against Oklahoma, and not all of those makes were dunks and layups. While that percentage is insanely high, this has not exactly been an aberration for the Wildcats during the tourney. Villanova also shot 57.9 percent from the floor against UNC-Asheville, 59.3 percent against Iowa, and 62.7 percent in the Sweet 16 against Miami. Josh Hart has an excellent midrange game to complement the outside shooting of Kris Jenkins and Ryan Arcidiacono. Daniel Ochefu has some nifty post moves, and Jalen Brunson can get to the rack as well. The Wildcats are smart and disciplined on the offensive end. They take whatever the defense gives them, whether that be a three-point shot or a drive into the lane.
Weakness: Frontcourt depth. The Wildcats employ multiple three-guard sets, and an argument can be made that forward Kris Jenkins is really more of a guard as well. Lone big man Daniel Ochefu has played exceptionally well this postseason, whether finding an open shooter or creating his own shot. Still, after Ochefu, the Wildcats are small, with 6-foot-8 Darryl Reynolds as the only other forward really seeing any sort of minutes in the frontcourt. As a result, the Wildcats could be susceptible to being outrebounded, even if Villanova more than makes up for the lack of height with hustle and determination. Nevertheless, North Carolina is among the top rebounding teams in the country, and the Tar Heels could have a distinct advantage on the glass, especially if Ochefu gets into foul trouble.
Intangibles: Defense. Villanova's offense has been getting most of the pub, particularly after the way the Wildcats shot the ball against Oklahoma. And perhaps rightfully so. Still, the Wildcats forced 17 turnovers in the thrashing of the Sooners in the National Semifinal. In addition, Oklahoma shot just 31.7 percent from the floor. This superb defense has also been a trend for the Wildcats, and not just limited to Saturday's game. Kansas had 16 turnovers in the Elite 8 loss to the Wildcats. Nova also collected 12 steals against the Sooners, and 11 against the Jayhawks. Villanova uses not only a variation of the 2-3 zone, but also plays stellar, physical man-to-man defense, and coach Jay Wright is not afraid to throw double-teams at star players. That strategy worked extremely effectively against Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, and is likely to be used against UNC's Brice Johnson as well.
Villanova Will Win If: the Wildcats continue to shoot the lights out. Nobody is going to be able to beat Villanova if they shoot 60% from the field like they have for most of the tournament. Villanova showed in its victory over Kansas that the 'Cats can win even if not shooting particularly well, but they have been virtually unstoppable otherwise. The Wildcats have connected on 48-of-98 treys during March (and April) Madness. The average margin of victory for Villanova during the tournament is 24.2 points, a simply mind-boggling number. The basket must look huge to nearly every member of the squad right now.
Prediction: The torrid shooting of the Wildcats throughout the tourney has been well documented. The Wildcats are on a roll, and even the No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels may not be able to stop them. North Carolina is one of the highest scoring teams in the tournament, and the Heels love to get up and down in transition. However, they may not want to get into a track meet with the Wildcats with the way Villanova has been shooting the basketball of late. Villanova's defense has also been extremely underrated. The Wildcats held the aforementioned Buddy Hield in check by throwing multiple players and a variety of defenses at him. Hield and the Sooners looked confused and befuddled en route to 17 turnovers and a 95-51 shellacking at the hands of the Wildcats. The Tar Heels have been terrific in taking care of the basketball this postseason. Still, they have not faced a defensive squad quite like the Wildcats. It appears that the only way the Heels have a chance will be to dominate the paint as they did against Syracuse and get Ochefu in early foul trouble. Yet even then, the three-point shot is the great equalizer, and more likely than not, Villanova will hit at least 10 of those. The Wildcats are averaging 9.6 three-pointers made over the last five contests. All signs point to the Villanova buzzsaw marching to the title with Rollie Massimino watching from the stands.
--Jesse Siegel
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
Strengths: The Tar Heels are one of the biggest teams in the nation and they know how to use their size. Everything starts with Brice Johnson, who has been described as a double-double gobbler. The smooth 6-9 senior had at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in three straight games in the tournament. He was "held" to 16 points and nine rebounds against Syracuse, but presents a match up nightmare for the Wildcats. UNC also boasts Kennedy Meeks (6-9, 265 lbs), Isaiah Hicks (6-8, 230 lbs), and Joel James (6-10, 280 lbs) who are all good rebounders.
Weakness: 3-point shooting is an obvious weakness for the Tar Heels. UNC does not have a player who hit better than 36.8 percent of his long range shots and made just 31.9 percent as a team from the perimeter. Marcus Paige is capable of hitting threes in bunches, but hit just 34.8 percent of his 3-pointers. The senior has hit 16 3-pointers in the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels have shown that they do not necessarily need to hit from deep to win. Against Syracuse, Paige's 3-point bombs in the second half twisted the dagger in the Orange corpse.
Intangibles: For all of their size, the Tar Heels are quite careful with the ball. Only Johnson and Meeks have an assist:turnover ratio of less than 2:1 of the North Carolina players who play at least 15.6 minutes. The Wildcats are excellent defensively, particularly on the perimeter. Paige and Joel Berry should be able to handle the pressure (as they did in the second half when Orange put on the press). Both teams run dual-point guard attacks, but Villanova is much more aggressive on the perimeter. The Tar Heels should be able to handle the pressure with help from Justin Jackson, Nate Britt, and Theo Pinson.
North Carolina Will Win If: They run and crash the boards, which are usually diametrically opposed. Villanova will try to control the tempo and impose their defensive will on UNC. The Tar Heels will attempt to board, fast break, and crash the boards in halfcourt sets. While the Wildcats have multiple players who are excellent, they only have one actual big in Daniel Ochefu. If the Tar Heels can attack the Wildcat senior and get him in early in foul trouble, the Big East champions will lose one avenue to easy baskets.
Prediction: Villanova has taken out what I considered the two best teams in the last two rounds in the NCAA tournament. I thought the Big 12 was the best conference this season; Oklahoma and Kansas were its two best teams. Both of those teams rely on 3-point shooting for offense. North Carolina is not a good 3-point shooting team, which may help the Wildcats clog the lane. Logic would dictate that the bigger Tar Heels will win, but I am going with my gut to give the Wildcats their first championship in 31 years.
--Perry Missner
