NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: East Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2025 continues ahead to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the East region. Chris Bennett examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

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East Region Sweet 16 Preview
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Site: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ

Tipoff: Thursday, March 27, 7:09 EDT

A week ago, I was pretty convinced Florida was the best team in the country, with Duke not too far behind. I think I've flipped that after the first two rounds. The Blue Devils head into the Sweet 16 firing on all cylinders and are nearly double-digit favorites Thursday night. Offensive firepower seems to be the overarching theme of the East, where the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 seeds survived and will be joined by the No. 6 BYU Cougars, who upset No. 3 Wisconsin. With not a ton of upsets throughout the tournament, are we in store for more top seeds advancing, or could we see a surprise?

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No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona

Key Matchup: Caleb Love vs. Duke's backcourt. Jalen Bradley obviously features prominently for the Wildcats, but Love is the one hope Arizona has at someone just going nuclear and erupting for 30+ points. Duke is long and deep with its guard options and will likely run multiple different defenders at Love throughout. That seems likely to frustrate him, as evident by his 3-for-13 showing when the two teams met in November. We've seen him shoot Duke out of the tournament before, however.

Duke will win IF: It limits turnovers. That seems elementary, but in the small stretches where teams have been able to make runs against Duke, it has come with uncharacteristic mistakes on offense. The Blue Devils rank 16th in offensive turnover rate at just 14.0 percent. Arizona doesn't force mistakes, ranking 239th in defensive turnover rate. Duke seemingly doesn't have to be perfect, but if it limits Arizona's number of possessions by not giving the ball away, a tall task for the Wildcats gets even taller.

Arizona will win IF: It racks up offensive rebounds. The Wildcats are one of the least dependent offenses on 3-pointers, ranking 195th in shooting percentage and getting just 25.8 percent of their points outside (No. 320). They rank 16th in offensive rebound percentage, but in their November meeting with Duke, the Blue Devils got 13 to Arizona's six. We know Duke defends at an elite level and has ample length across all parts. Any easy stickbacks will go a long way towards Arizona staying competitive. Tobe Awaka is the Wildcats' leading rebounder despite playing less than 20 minutes. He'll be vital here.

Player to Watch: Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke. We don't want to harp too much on the November matchup between these two, but in Duke's 69-55 win previously, only Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel scored in double-figures. Proctor had 19 in Round 1 and 25 in Round 2, going 13-for-16 from 3-point range. If the Blue Devils have a reliable third scorer at worst, and if Proctor remains this hot at best, they'll be virtually unbeatable.

Prediction: It's really difficult to find a path for Arizona. Duke is bigger, deeper and simply better than the Wildcats, who will need a perfect game in all facets, while Duke's margin for error is greater. Duke jumping out and putting this to bed before halftime may be less shocking than Arizona toying with an upset for 40 minutes.

Sweet 16 Pick: Duke

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No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU

Key Matchup: The Frontcourts. Both of these teams are deep and will play nine or 10 guys double-digit minutes. BYU has a size advantage in the backcourt, but we've seen Mark Sears not impacted by that; he'll get his shots from outside and find ways to penetrate and get to the foul line. But Alabama should have three inches on the inside with Clifford Omoruyi and Jarin Stevenson, while a healthy Grant Nelson can stretch the perimeter and open up those driving lanes for Sears. Omoruyi has been particularly active of late, coming off a double-double while scoring in double-digits in five of the last six. Getting easy buckets inside stops runs and keeps the pressure off your shooters.

Alabama will win IF: It defends, even in the smallest of intervals. I don't really care that the Crimson Tide are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency; they don't defend at a high level for 40 minutes. They might not even for 10 minutes. They use their pace to generate more possessions, not turnovers, ranking 352nd in defensive turnover rate. Take a charge, step into a few passing lanes; anything! We know they are going to score, but we think BYU will do the same. If the Tide can get transition points off steals and not rebounds and outlets, they can stretch this out.

BYU will win IF: It wins the 3-point battle. The Cougars rely on long balls somewhat heavily, deriving 39.3 percent of their points from deep (No. 18) and shooting treys at a 37.3 percent clip (No. 28). They hit 19-of-46  (41.3 percent) in two games last weekend. Alabama isn't as reliant on 3-pointers, or as successful, making them at a 35.0 percent mark with outside shooting accounting for 33.7 percent of its scoring. The Tide at least defends the perimeter well, ranking 22nd nationally, allowing a 30.5 percent make rate. If this game shoots out as everyone expects, BYU likely needs to make 10+ from deep at a high conversion rate.

Player to Watch: Egor Demin, G, BYU. You could name any BYU guard here, but we think we can feel more confident in Richie Saunders and Trevin Knell taking and making 3-pointers, as both are high-volume, high-success, making 43.1 percent and 44.0 percent, respectively. But Demin isn't. He made only 41 during the year with 28.1 percent success, but went 5-for-13 last week. If we're buying the narrative the Cougars need to win on the arc, having Demin's brief improvement carry over and give a third or fourth option from outside goes a long way in BYU's upset bid.

Prediction: I find BYU to be a very live underdog here. Though the Cougars rank 178th in tempo, they won't be afraid to play at 'Bama's speed and will likely try to run and outscore; they've averaged 85.0 points over their last 10 games not against Houston. But that's also not going to do anything to make the Tide uncomfortable. Alabama wins in a tight, entertaining and fast one. As for much of the tournament, the chalk holds in New Jersey.

Sweet 16 Pick: Alabama

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