Friday is relatively quiet in the college basketball betting world, but thankfully we still have two Big Ten teams clashing up North, as well as a dozen other matchups to consider from smaller schools. Here are my predictions for three select games Friday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Northern Kentucky 
at Milwaukee
Milwaukee's offense excels at two things, both of which directly play against Northern Kentucky's defense. First, the Panthers are active on the glass, recording the 70th-highest offensive rebounding percentage. The Norse, meanwhile, do not consistently box out, ranking outside the top 220 teams in defensive rebounding percentage. Second, Milwaukee is very protective of the ball, recording an offensive turnover percentage that ranks in the top-50 teams. This is key because Northern Kentucky relies on takeaways to get stops, ranking in the top-25 in defensive turnover percentage. Aside from this skill, the Norse appear weak defensively in most areas. For example, they rank 297th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
At the other end of the court, Milwaukee is also lackluster defensively, but it usually does a good job securing boards. The Panthers rank among the top-100 teams in defensive rebounding percentage, a key trait given that Northern Kentucky is above average at offensive rebounding.
Another note to keep in mind is the difference between resumes. Milwaukee may have a losing record, but it has also challenged itself to this point, ranking in the top 50 teams in non-conference strength of schedule. Northern Kentucky, on the other hand, ranks 340th in strength of schedule per KenPom, making its schedule one of the easiest in the country.
Considering how Milwaukee matches up against Northern Kentucky, I gotta go with the Panthers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Milwaukee -3.5
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Akron 
at Bowling Green
Flying under the radar, the Zips have one of the nation's most effective offenses. They rank in the top-20 in adjusted efficiency and boast the third-highest effective field goal percentage, having made over 61 percent of two-point attempts (seventh) and 39 percent of three-point attempts (12th). They also rank in the top-60 in turnover rate and offensive rebounding, giving them a well-rounded attack.
On the surface, Bowling Green appears to have a somewhat proficient defense, but a closer look reveals it's not as strong as it seems. The Falcons' non-conference schedule ranked among the easiest in the country, and they're now getting a dose of reality during conference play. Bowling Green has posted three of its four worst defensive efficiency ratings against conference opponents, including the two worst. Now, the Falcons have to face by far the best offensive team they've seen all season.
At the other end of the court, Akron posted subpar defensive numbers during the non-conference season but has stepped up against conference competition. Against MAC opponents, the Zips have the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the conference and are holding opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the league.
All things considered, I'd much rather take the team that's more likely to score points. My money's on Akron.
College Basketball Best Bet: Akron -2.5
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USC 
at Minnesota
USC is on the final leg of a brutal road trip, suffering humbling defeats against Michigan and Michigan State. There's no way to sugarcoat how poorly the Trojans played in those two games, but they were also the two most challenging USC will face all season, given the location of future games and opponents' current efficiency ratings.
In Friday's matchup, the Gophers have two significant offensive advantages. First, Minnesota is among the best at getting to the charity stripe. This was true before conference play, ranking 16th in free-throw attempt rate for the whole season, and it's still true against Big Ten opponents, posting the highest free-throw rate in the league. Coincidentally, USC has struggled to get stops without fouling during conference play, recording the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the Big Ten. Second, Minnesota is highly effective in the paint, an area where USC hasn't defended well. The Gophers have made 58 percent of two-point attempts against Big Ten opponents, the league's third-highest mark, while the Trojans are allowing conference opponents to make 59 percent of shots inside the arc, which is third-worst in the league.
At the other end of the court, USC has established itself as an aggressive team that drives to the basket, boasting the highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation. The Trojans are also converting 73 percent from the charity stripe, making this an effective way to score when jumpers aren't falling.
The other area where USC can influence the final score is the pace of play. The Trojans often push the pace, ranking among the top-50 teams in adjusted tempo. This style clashes with Minnesota's preferred speed, which ranks near the bottom of the nation in adjusted tempo, at 341st.
One would think USC has a fair chance to bounce back after facing two of the top three defensive teams in the nation, per KenPom's efficiency rankings. Still, Minnesota is heating up and playing host on Friday, so I don't feel as confident picking a winner. Instead, I like our odds of seeing a high point total. Both teams are prone to drawing fouls, and USC will try to speed up the game. For these reasons, I'm taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Milwaukee -3.5
- Akron -2.5
- USC at Minnesota - Over 145.5
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