NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

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Midwest Region
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The Midwest Region certainly isn't the strongest of the four regions, which bodes well for top-seeded Kansas. In what was clearly the best conference this season, Kansas survived the gauntlet of the Big 12 which provided no easy matchups. The Jayhawks survived mostly unscathed at 14-4 in the regular season and then won the conference tournament. The 2-4 seeds are all reeling a bit heading into the tournament, as Providence was the only one of the three to pick up a win in its conference tournament and then lost by 27 to Creighton in the semifinals. On the flip side, fifth-seeded Iowa comes in with plenty of momentum after winning four games to take down the Big Ten Tournament, although Fran McCaffrey has yet to make it to the Sweet 16 in his career.

One of the things that stands out about the region is the amount of star players throughout. Jabari Smith (Auburn), Johnny Davis (Wisconsin), Keegan Murray (Iowa) and Ochai Agbaji (Kansas) are all projected picks in this summer's NBA Draft, with Smith and Davis likely in the lottery, and could all wind up in the Sweet 16 if everything goes right.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Kansas – The Jayhawks secured a one seed after taking down the Big 12 Tournament title and sharing the regular season crown with Baylor. Kansas is looking for some redemption after bowing out early last year as a three-seed in the Round of 32 and is much improved offensively this year, headlined by Conference Player of the Year, Agbaji. Point guard Remy Martin looks to be 100 percent in his return from a knee injury, giving Kansas a scoring option off the bench. The team also has size in the paint with 6-foot-10 center David McCormack, who has posted 10 double-doubles this season.

No. 2 Auburn – Auburn is led by one of the best frontcourts in the country in projected first overall NBA Draft pick Smith and fellow likely pro, 7-1 center Walker Kessler. Kessler is second in the country in blocks at 4.5 per game and is a big part of the Tigers ranking fourth in the county in two-point percentage defense at 42.6 percent. After starting the season 22-1 and taking over the number one spot in the AP poll, Auburn finished the season 5-4, as it struggled to get much help from their guards. Wendell Green leads the team with 5.0 assists per game, albeit as the team's sixth man.

No. 3 Wisconsin – The Badgers had one of more surprising seasons in college basketball after being picked 10th in the Big Ten Preseason media poll and quickly showed their potential in the Maui Invitational, taking down five seeds Houston and Saint Mary's en route to the title. Wisconsin will benefit from getting to play the opening two rounds nearby in Milwaukee and feature a prolific pair of guards in Johnny Davis (19.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and fifth-year senior Brad Davison (14.5 ppg, 35% 3-Pt). 6-9 forward Tyler Wahl has also had a much improved season to give UW a reliable third scoring option.

No. 4 Providence – After winning its first ever Big East regular season championship, Providence limps into the NCAA Tournament on the heels of a crushing defeat in the conference tournament semifinals. The Friars have a balanced offensive attack with four players averaging at least 10 points, led by Nate Watson's 13.8 ppg while also getting bench production out of the Big East's Sixth Man of the Year, Jared Bynum. Their road will not be easy, however, as they'll have to go through a pair of hot teams in South Dakota State and Iowa/Richmond to get to the Sweet 16.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 10 Miami – Miami features one of the best offenses in the region, led by 24-year-old wing Kameron McGusty, who is shooting 48 percent overall with 1.7 threes made per game. He combines with a strong backcourt that includes Charlie Moore and Isaiah Wong, both of whom have range from three and are averaging double-digit points. If Miami can get some consistent stops on the defensive end, it's capable of pulling off an initial upset and giving Auburn a run for their money. With a win over Duke earlier this season, the Hurricanes can elevate to another level.

No. 13 South Dakota State – The Jackrabbits are booming with confidence after going a perfect 21-0 in the Summit League and shouldn't be overwhelmed by the occasion, having been right there with Alabama early in the season before fading late in the game. Although the Jackrabbits lack much on the defensive end, Douglas Wilson and Baylor Scheierman are both averaging over 16 ppg and lead a high-powered offense that leads the country in three-point field goal percentage at 44.2 percent. If South Dakota State can turn the game into a shootout, it should have a chance at the upset over Providence.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 6 Louisiana State – LSU picked up some big wins early in the SEC schedule, beating the likes of Kentucky and Tennessee in consecutive games but was inconsistent after that, finishing .500 overall in the conference and losing in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. While the Tigers feature one of the best defenses in the country, the offense often goes through scoring droughts while its most efficient player, Tari Eason, comes off the bench. Considering LSU started the season 15-1, a likely exit in the first or second round will cap off a disappointing season.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 10 Miami over No. 7 USC – I don't view this as a region where we're going to see many upsets, but Miami is the most likely to get it done. The Trojans got off to an undefeated 13-0 start but didn't look impressive down the stretch, losing three of their last four games while also squeaking by the likes of Washington State, Oregon State, Oregon and Washington over the last month. McGusty is playing excellent for the Hurricanes and Miami should be feeling confident after narrowly beating Duke in the ACC Tournament.

Player to Watch

Matt Bradley, G/F, San Diego St.

The west coast teams often don't get the publicity that they deserve and the Aztecs fall into that category. A big reason SDSU is where it's at is due to their leading scorer, who has been the clear go-to option with a team-high 29.4 percent usage rate. The California transfer is having an exceptional senior season, leading the team with 17.0 ppg while shooting 42 percent from three. He'll need to be on his A-game in a first-round matchup with Creighton, who allowed just 58.3 points over three games in the Big East Tournament. 

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Kansas – Kansas gets the winner of a play-in game between arguably the two worst teams in the tournament before playing the winner of San Diego St./Creighton. The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the county (didn't allow 60 points in three Mountain West tournament games) but don't have enough firepower offensively to keep up with Kansas, while Creighton is a young team without their starting point guard.

No. 5 Iowa - I expect Iowa to be continued to be carried by Keegan Murray, who averaged 25.8 points and 9.0 rebounds on 56 percent shooting over their four-game Big Ten Tournament run. With a favorable draw against Atlantic-10 Tournament winner Richmond, Iowa will then be the betting favorite when it takes on the winner of Providence/South Dakota St. The Hawkeyes' inefficiencies on the defensive end will make it difficult to get past Kansas, however.

No. 3 Wisconsin – The Badgers get an interesting first-round matchup against Colgate, who have a majority of its key pieces back from a team that held a double-digit lead in the first half over Arkansas as a 14-seed last season. Wisconsin is an impressive 11-2 in games decided by five points or less this season, showing that it does a good job of closing out close games.

No. 2 Auburn - Auburn takes on Jacksonville State in the first round, who interestingly got into the tournament due to winning the regular season crown after tournament champion Bellarmine was ineligible for the postseason. I expect them to be tested by Miami in the second round but to ultimately prevail with how tough it makes it for opposing offenses to score consistently.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Kansas – I know it may not be the most exciting to pick the top seed, but Kansas is clearly the class of the region. The Jayhawks have a dominant trio of reliable scoring options in Agbaji, McCormack and Christian Braun. Kansas has been well prepared playing one of the toughest schedules in the country and simply has too much on both ends of the floor for Auburn or Wisconsin to make it past them. Kansas may need some luck to win it all, however, as Gonzaga and Arizona appear to still be on another level.