NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

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What more is there to ask for in this region? We have a reigning national champion, another 2021 Final Four participant that happens to have the most NCAA Tournament championships in history, and another blue blood that ranks second in championship victories. Oh yeah, the school with the third-most championships is an eight seed. Mix in the rest of the 16 teams to include four conference tournament winners, we've got a tremendous blend of historical success and great current form.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Baylor - The defending National Champions begin their quest to repeat with two games in Forth Worth, TX. They check in with elite peripherals, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, 14th defensively and 21st in 3-point percentage defense. But the sum appears greater than its individual parts. Baylor has nine players averaging double-digit minutes, but none playing north for 30. One of those is out for the year and LJ Cryer (13.5 ppg, 1.7 apg) was in a boot during the Big 12 Tournament. Depth will be tested if they have an extended run, but PG James Akinjo (13.4 ppg, 5.7 apg) is capable of leading this team to New Orleans.

No. 2  Kentucky - Led by likely National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky looks poised for a deep run and return to prominence. He's turned in 15 straight double-doubles in route to 17.0 ppg and 15.1 rpg averages, and no one has proven capable of slowing him down. His presence means the Wildcats will be in every game, at worst. But he's got capable supporting cast that proved its depth when both starting guards, Sahvir Wheeler (10.0 ppg, 6.9 apg) and TyTy Washington (12.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.0 apg) missed action in February. KenPom's third-ranked team overall seems a bit under seeded thanks to an SEC Tournament semi-final loss to Tennessee. They opened as slight betting favorites to make the Final Four, a position I firmly agree with.

No. 3 Purdue - The Boilermakers limped a bit down the stretch, going just 3-3 including their run to the Big 10 Championship game, giving pause to their potential. At their best, it's a dangerous attack that ranks third offensively. Led by likely high lottery pick Jaden Ivey (17.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.1 apg), Purdue can score with anyone. Zach Edey (14.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and Trevion Williams (11.g ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.1 apg) give the Boilermakers two massive bigs few can match. Their downfall is likely a lack of defense, where they come in a disappointing 100th nationally. The draw also does them no favors.

No. 4 UCLA - Can the Bruins elevate to last year's levels that saw them go from the First Four to the Final Four? Jaime Jaquez' current form suggests so, as he's averaged 19.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 apg and 1.3 spg over UCLA's last eight, with the only loss coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game. KenPom ranks them eighth nationally, 15th offensively and 12th defensively. It's not usually wise to bet on a team to flip the switch and just expect March success. But it does feel like the Bruins are flying a bit under the radar, making them at least a betting value if nothing else.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 8 North Carolina -  Results haven't been the Tar Heels' friend, owning just three quad one wins, two of which were against the next team below. They're not deep, but their core five remains a slew of five and four star recruits. The metrics are there; KenPom has UNC 29th overall, 27th offensively, 64th defensively and 37th in tempo. We saw how reliant they are on the 3-point shot in their ACC semi-final loss to Virginia Tech, going just 3-of-26. Maybe that was just tired legs? If they play through Armando Bacot (16.5 ppg, 12.5 rpg) and get consistency from Caleb Love (15.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.8 apg), the Heels are capable of winning four games.

No. 11 Virginia Tech - This team will get a little more run below, but let's start by acknowledging the advanced metrics. The Hokies rank 23rd overall, per KenPom, largely on the heels of an 18th-ranked offensive efficiency and 55th defensive efficiency thanks to their ability to dictate tempo. Keve Aluma (15.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg) gives them an anchor, but they can get production across their rotation, with Justyn Mutts a double-double threat, Storm Murphy and Hunter Cattoor both capable of shooting well and sophomore Darius Maddox emerging late. They'll face bigger teams every step of their potential way, so will need the offense to remain flawless. But the Hokies have lost only twice since January 26th, are fresh off an ACC Tournament title, and clearly believing.

BIGGEST BUST

No.1 Baylor - The Bears are the defending national champion and the top seed in this bracket. By definition, they have to reach the Final Four, at least, in order to not be a bust. I'm not too concerned about their early exit from their conference tournament, but I am concerned about their lack of a go-to scorer and dwindling depth. They could legitimately go out in any round after their opener.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No.6 Texas - I really wanted to like Texas coming into this tournament, but they haven't figured out the right rotations with their roster full of transfers. They rank 13th defensively and 341st in tempo, the latter of which is right where the Hokies want to play, as they come in 344th. But the key here is offense. Virginia Tech has capable shooters and isn't prone to prolonged droughts. The Longhorns are. In a game that figures to be low scoring, give me the team that can actually score consistently.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Johnny Juzang, G/F, UCLA - It's been an injury-riddled year for one of last year's tournament stars. Juzang averaged 22.8 ppg and 4.0 rpg during UCLA's run last season but had missed five of the Bruins' final 16 games in January and February. He has appeared in four straight of late however, topping out with 38 minutes against Arizona, finishing with 16 points and three boards. Assuming healthy, he's at least a 1b to Jaime Jaquez' 1a, and has shown capable of putting this team on his back. 

SWEET 16 PICKS

No.1 Baylor - For as much as UNC could win two games, the fact remains we've seen Baylor do it while seeing the Tar Heels wilt against tournament-caliber competition. And UNC is no sure thing to take down Marquette. Betting against Baylor will be a fun prop in the first weekend, but ultimately, the defending champs reach deep and advance.

No. 4 UCLA - Everyone seems to want to like St. Mary's here, but I think Wyoming can be a dangerous matchup for the Gaels if they get out of Dayton. They're a physical team with a brute frontcourt. It's easy to forget UCLA was a top-3 preseason team based off of last year's run, and while I don't think they'll achieve that same magic, this unit knows how to win in March. They won't go out in the first weekend.

No. 3 Purdue - I'm going incredibly boring with these picks, but it's a reflection of probability against potential ambiguity. I think Yale is a live dog in Round One due to style, and a second round matchup with Texas could be a grind, or Virginia Tech who is surging and can score with the Boilers. But none of those teams can match Ivey's ability to get to the rack in crunch time, nor can they match 7-foot-4 Edey or 6-foot-11 Williams on the glass. 

No. 2 Kentucky - There just aren't teams in the bottom quadrant of this bracket that can match Kentucky's size or depth. A first-round matchup with St. Peters won't provide pushback, and neither San Francisco nor Murray State will be able to keep Tshiebwe off the glass, resulting in an inability to get stops late, staving off any potential upset threat.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Kentucky - Even if we ignore the talent and depth, the path just seems very clear. The Wildcats present with the easiest pick to the Sweet 16, and then we have no idea who they'll be left facing. Purdue has the size to make for a stiff test if they can advance, but their defensive inefficiencies won't allow for an upset.