Big Ten conference action tips off the New Year with a bang, as nearly half the league is in action on Friday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Oregon 
at Maryland
Oregon star center Nate Bittle returned to action in December after missing a few games due to injury, and his on-court presence has proven to be essential for Oregon's success. Bittle has played in 11 games this season and has earned KenPom's 'MVP' honors in five of them. The seven-footer obviously boosts Oregon's rebounding prospects, which is usually one of its best skills and will be key in this matchup. The Ducks boast the 21st-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation and will face a Terrapins defense that ranks 195th in defensive rebounding.
Maryland, meanwhile, is still without its own star center, Pharrel Payne. Head coach Buzz Williams has remained tight-lipped on Payne's injury status and timetable for return, so there haven't been any indications that his return is imminent. Payne is easily Maryland's best and most impactful player, so his absence should not be discounted.
Offensively, the Terrapins have struggled to score on shot attempts at close range. They have made under 47 percent of their two-point attempts, placing in the bottom 20 percent of the nation, and they also give the ball away at an alarming rate, with a turnover percentage that ranks in the bottom quartile. Maryland's best skill has been generating trips to the charity stripe, with the 15th-highest free-throw attempt rate among all D-1 teams. However, it's worth pointing out that Pharrell Payne was primarily responsible for this stat, drawing fouls at the third-highest rate among all qualifying D-1 players, per KenPom. Additionally, Oregon usually does a decent job of getting stops without fouling, allowing free throws at a rate that ranks in the top 100. Maryland has scored nearly 27 percent of its total points from the charity stripe, which ranks seventh among all D-1 teams, so this is an area worth noting.
Both teams have played brutal non-conference schedules, and each has a 7-6 record to show for it. Ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing a team led by point guard Jackson Shelstad and center Nate Bittle get the hard-earned road win. I'm going with the Ducks in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -1.5
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Ohio State 
at Rutgers 
Rutgers has been a disaster offensively, and it's hard to see much changing in this matchup. The Scarlett Knights rank outside the top 200 teams in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and three-point field goal percentage, and outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage, which makes scoring on any given possession unlikely. One silver lining for Rutgers has been its ability to collect offensive boards, ranking in the top 80 in offensive rebounding. However, Ohio State similarly ranks in the top 80 in defensive rebounding, neutralizing Rutgers' one potential edge.
The Scarlett Knights have performed much better at the other end of the court, though not exactly great, ranking 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That said, they are holding opponents to under 49 percent on two-point attempts (81st), an essential strength in this matchup because Ohio State's best skill is scoring inside the paint, with almost 63 percent of two-point attempts made, the fifth-highest mark in the nation. The Buckeyes also excel at drawing contact near the rim, ranking in the top 70 in free-throw attempt rate, while Rutgers' defense is effective without fouling, ranking in the top 30 in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
I don't trust the road team with a large spread in this spot, but I'd also rather not rely on Rutgers' offense to carry us to a winning pick. Instead, I like our chances of seeing Rutgers grind out another low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 150
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Michigan State 
at Nebraska 
The Cornhuskers enter the New Year with a flawless 13-0 record, although a closer look at their resume leaves me skeptical. Nebraska's non-conference schedule was among the easiest in the nation, ranking 305th, and it has played only one true road game to date. Granted, the road victory came at Illinois, which is undoubtedly an impressive win, but it's the only "A" quality win on its resume so far, per KenPom.
Michigan State, on the other hand, only has one loss despite thoroughly challenging itself through the first two months of the season. The Spartans' schedule ranks 53rd in difficulty per KenPom and includes wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Iowa, all of which are "A" type wins per KenPom.
As one might expect with a team coached by Tom Izzo, Michigan State appears fundamentally sound across the board. Among all D-1 teams, its defense ranks sixth in adjusted efficiency, third in rebounding, and 44th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
When playing in the other direction, the Spartans are again hyperactive on the glass, boasting the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. They are also knocking down nearly 37 percent of their three-point attempts, making them a dangerous team when given second-chance opportunities.
It's hard to find many surface-level flaws with Nebraska, given its relatively easy schedule. Still, I'm betting Michigan State's physical intensity will expose a few cracks in the Huskers' armor. My money's on the Spartans getting the job done on the road.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +2
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Oregon -1.5
- Ohio State at Rutgers - Under 150
- Michigan State +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
