This article is part of our NCAA Championship Preview series.
Matchup: For the third straight season, the championship will be decided by no lower than a two-seed. Last year, Villanova was the only two-seed to make the final game in the last three years (2015 involved one seeds Duke and Wisconsin). What we lose in Cinderella intrigue is made up by arguably the two best teams in the country. North Carolina survived what has been called one of the best conferences in college basketball history, emerging from a deep ACC that sent nine teams to the NCAA Tournament (but only one to the Sweet 16). Meanwhile, Gonzaga crushed their non-conference slate before rolling through the WCC with just one loss. Even the tournament runs have been different. North Carolina beat the chalk in the East (the 16, eight, four, and two seeds) before ousting Oregon in the Final Four. Gonzaga only played one team seeded lower than seventh. Both teams feature size and balance.
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs Strength: It would be easy to look at the Gonzaga roster and notice how many big players the team has and figure that Gonzaga's strength would be its frontcourt, but that would overlook the team's balance. The team has survived the travails of the NCAA tournament -- including two of the best defensive teams in the land with West Virginia and South Carolina -- by not having any particular weaknesses. Nigel Williams-Goss leads the offense, but he does not dominate the ball. Jordan Mathews, Silas Melson, and Josh Perkins provide ball handling and 3-point support. The frontcourt also runs four-deep with Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins sharing the pivot, complemented by 6-foot-9 Johnathan Williams and 6-10 freshman Killian Tillie. A team wins 37 games by being able to adapt to whatever the opponent throws at them.
Weakness: Among the eight players in the Gonzaga rotation, there are four players who are 6-9 or taller and four players who are 6-4 or shorter. There are no clear wings. Against South Carolina, Williams was able to provide excellent defense against Sindarius Thornwell. The Missouri transfer is athletic to keep up with smaller players and his length provides problems. The guards can also defend bigger players, but the lack of "middle" sized players could be an issue against Tar Heels such as Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson, who may be too big for the Gonzaga guards and too quick for the majority of the Bulldog frontcourt players.
Intangibles: By coming out of the WCC and not having to play any top three seeds, the perception of the Bulldogs is that they do not completely deserve to be in the championship game. This is nonsense. Unlike past Zag teams, this year's edition simply crushed its opponents and led the nation with a 21.8 average scoring margin. Gonzaga has added a pair of blowout wins in the Big Dance by crushing both South Dakota State and Xavier. Coach Bob Huggins and his disciple Frank Martin led West Virginia and South Carolina with excellent defenses and Gonzaga did not blink. Don't let that mid-major conference and opponent talk fool you: Gonzaga deserves to be here.
Gonzaga Will Win If: it sinks its normal complement of 3-pointers. It may be instructive to look at the Bulldogs' lone loss. Against BYU on Feb. 26, Gonzaga only converted 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) of its long-range shots and missed 13 free throws. Like North Carolina, BYU featured enough size to counter the Gonzaga frontcourt, but it was the inability to loosen the Cougar defense that did the Zags in. If players like Mathews and Melson, who combined to hit 39 percent of their 3-pointers, can sink at least six trifectas (like they did against the Gamecocks), Gonzaga will have a much easier time on offense.
Prediction: Both teams reached the finals without meeting a team that could match their size. North Carolina has longer wings, but will not be able to bully the Bulldogs in the paint. As long as the injuries sustained by Karnowski (eye) and Williams-Goss (ankle) do not impede their play in the championship game, I think Gonzaga will win. I doubted the Bulldogs coming into the tournament, but they have proved to be no outside power conference fluke. They were able to outlast the two best defensive teams and will not face such resistance against the Tar Heels. The Final Four game were decided by a combined five points, which hopefully sets the stage for another classic championship game. We have not had a NCAA championship decided by more than eight points since 2011 (when Butler could barely make any basket on their way to 41 points in the loss to Connecticut). Gonzaga will win by three points and Nigel Williams-Goss will take home the Most Outstanding Player trophy.
--Perry Missner
No. 1 North Carolina Tar HeelsStrength: As I've been saying all throughout this tournament series, North Carolina's rebounding ability gives them an edge against almost any opponent. Gonzaga has an extremely talented frontcourt in its own right with Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins, but I'm not so sure the Bulldogs have faced the caliber of bigs that the Heels have. To be fair, Oregon went toe-to-toe with the Heels on the glass Saturday and matched them rebound for rebound at 43 and nearly came away with the victory. Still, if North Carolina is on its game on the boards, it's going to be problematic for the 'Zags. Although Isaiah Hicks has underperformed of late (6 Pts, 3 Reb in last two games), Kennedy Meeks has been a man possessed with 32 points and 31 boards over his last two outings. How Gonzaga tries to contain Meeks will be one of the most compelling storylines of Monday's showdown.
Weakness: Offensive production from the backcourt. When North Carolina is at its best, it's capable of dominating teams not only on the interior, but also with elite guard play. That simply hasn't been the case this tournament. Joel Berry has averaged 34.3 minutes per game over his last four outings despite playing on two injured ankles, but his offensive capabilities have been completely sapped. He's just 6-of-26 from the floor and 2-of-13 from 3-point range in his last two games (read: since suffering his second ankle injury of the tournament against Kentucky). That's what most would refer to as a problem. I have no doubt that Berry is going to go all out in his final collegiate game Monday, but I'm worried that the adage of "Where there's a will, there's a way" won't get it done here. Also, Theo Pinson may be an elite perimeter defender, which will be vital to slowing down the Zags' 3-point barrage, but he can't be relied upon to chip in much offensively. Nate Britt is also a fine guard off the bench in his own right, but he's not a threat to light up the scoreboard. North Carolina got by with just 24 combined points from that trio Saturday, but I'm not convinced the Heels can come out on top with that level of production from Berry, Britt,and Pinson on Monday.
Intangibles: This is a team that has been on a mission to get back to this stage since Kris Jenkins' legendary game-winner went through the bottom of the net last April. The nucleus is largely intact and Joel Berry has taken the reins from Marcus Paige as the leader on the court. The Heels are an experienced and battle tested group, ranking 12th in the nation by Ken Pomeroy's minutes continuity metric. What's more, North Carolina has one of the all-time great coaches at the helm. Roy Williams, a literal duck master, has been to the Final Four a whopping nine times in his career. Mark Few is obviously an excellent coach and is among the current elite, but Williams' track record in games like this could come into play late in the game if this one's close. The Heels have the experience, coaching, and that championship air about them that will make them undoubtedly the toughest test the Zags have faced this season.
North Carolina will win if: It can keep Nigel Williams-Goss and Jordan Mathews in check. As you can probably guess at this point, I give North Carolina's frontcourt the edge in any matchup, but its backcourt issues could be its downfall. We've already covered Berry, Britt, and Pinson's offensive woes, so we're going to focus on their defense here. I highlighted Pinson's defensive prowess in this space last week, and it'll be one of the key factors again Monday. Williams-Goss is Mr. Everything for the Zags, leading the team in both points (16.9) and assists (4.7). He's had an unbelievable season and is arguably the biggest reason why the Zags have gotten this far. Yes, he is reportedly dealing with a sore ankle, but the adrenaline that'll kick in once we hit tipoff could very well make that a non-story very quickly. Pinson and Co. will have their hands full trying to slow him down, but it won't just be about limiting about his scoring; North Carolina has to disrupt Williams-Goss' ability to create and distribute the ball to the Zags' bigs. If the Heels can keep Williams-Goss off balance Monday, they should end up laying claim to the school's sixth national title.
Prediction: I've been convinced that North Carolina is the best team in the nation since February and truly believe that the Tar Heels have the necessary components to get retribution for last season's tragic ending. I'm also convinced that UNC hasn't played its best game of the tournament yet. Sloppy play led to some pretty uncomfortable late-game situations against Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon. It speaks to North Carolina's quality across the board that it's made it this far despite not playing up to its potential. If you're Gonzaga, that has to be in the back of your mind. If North Carolina plays up to its standard, they can win this one comfortably. In the end, North Carolina's combo of Meeks, Hicks, and Tony Bradley should be able to give Karnowski and Collins problems that they're not necessarily accustomed to. Yes, North Carolina will need its guards to play better and it'll need Justin Jackson to lead the way offensively, but I'm convinced that all of those factors will come together and help lead the Heels to the title. It's worth mentioning that KenPom gives North Carolina just a 37 percent chance of winning, and his projections have been bullish on the Bulldogs throughout the tournament. It's certainly possible that Gonzaga's depth and balance ultimately proves to be too much for the Heels, but I'll give North Carolina the edge thanks to coaching, experience, and overall talent level.
--John McKechnie
