DFS College Basketball: Wednesday Preview

Conference play is officially upon us, which changes up the college basketball DFS landscape quite a bit. For starters, we're much less likely to find easy stack options against a lower-tier, fast-paced schools. In fact, the requirement for these obscure evaluations ends almost entirely. Furthermore, the algorithms have had a large enough sample size to even out, so giant salary differences between sites are much less likely to exist. Rather than looking as much at implied points and pace (though still important), DFS players will need to zero in on individual matchups and schemes more than ever before.

On the positive side, projected minutes totals will become easier to predict. While foul trouble and in-game injuries still serve as variables, there is typically less blowout potential in games. Therefore, a player who starts and sees 28.0 MPG for five games in a row is a much safer bet to reach that total again in game No. 6. Another benefit is more players now that college football has essentially came to a close. We should soon start to see bigger contests (and prize pools), especially on Saturdays.

Of course, each year is different, and it remains to be seen how strongly this observational evidence applies again in the first year back for college basketball DFS. But without further delay, let's dive in with a closer look at Wednesday's large slate of games.

Top Players:

Dedric Lawson, Kansas ($9,000 FD, $10,400 DK): I've learned my lesson about recommending a fade on Lawson, so I won't do that outright here. Nonetheless, it's important to note that Udoka Azbuike ($6,500 FD, $7,400 DK) has returned from an ankle injury, so the opportunities for Lawson won't be quite as certain as what they were over the previous four games. Azubuike started the Dec. 28 matchup against Eastern Michigan and needed just 20 minutes to log 23 points and nine rebounds. In the same game, Lawson had just 20.0 DraftKings points -- his lowest total since being held scoreless Nov. 12.

Caleb Martin, Nevada ($8,700 FD, $9,200 DK): Martin exploded for 33 points Dec. 29, and is averaging 44.2 FD points over his last three games (pro tip: use the game log calculators on our optimizer -- it's one of my personal favorite features). While there is always a bit of variance in which Nevada player breaks out on a given night, it looks like Caleb is starting to play like the preseason MW Player of the Year. The Aggies offer a strong defensive opposition, but Martin and the Wolfpack will be getting a big pace boost in a game that his the third-highest over/under on the slate.

Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech ($8,300 FD, $9,100 DK): Culver has been as steady as the come when it comes to fantasy scoring, but he could hit a roadblock on the road Wednesday against the West Virginia press. Any mathematical algorithm will give the Red Raiders a pace boost, and that could very well be fair without key rim protector Sagaba Konate (knee) out for West Virginia. Just exercise caution when using their backcourt, and leave room for some extra turnovers in your personal evaluations.

Games to Target:

Butler (-8.5) vs. Georgetown, o/u 150, 7:00 p.m. EST

Georgetown is the No. 14-fastest team in the country, per KenPom, and sits with a defensive efficiency rating outside of the top-100. So DFS players definitely want a piece of Butler, and Kamar Baldwin ($7,400 FD, $7,700 DK) is one of my favorite ways to do it. Sure, he's produced less than 20 fantasy points per game in his last two, but put up an average of 30.2 on FanDuel over the previous 11, representing a good buy-low opportunity. Next, I'll use this opportunity to plug our Discord server, where the user "krnelson10" pointed out Duke transfer Jordan Tucker ($3,000 FD, $4,500 DK), who has seen his minutes rise in every game since his Dec. 15 debut. Nate Fowler ($4,500 FD, $3,600 DK) is also in the salary-relief discussion as someone who has started every game, but watch out for foul trouble as he looks to lock down Jesse Govan ($8,600 FD, $8,900 DK). He could also be a victim of Tucker's rise. I left Govan out of the "top players" analysis above in order to talk about him here. He has a double-double in five of his last six games and should get one tonight, but it's worth noting he gets a big tempo downgrade, as Butler is No. 318 in the nation in KenPom's adjusted metric.

Kansas (-8) vs. Oklahoma, o/u 151, 9:00 p.m. EST

Kansas checks in with the day's highest implied point total (79.5), but it is worth noting that Oklahoma sports the No. 7-ranked team in KenPom's defensive efficiency. As noted above, there's also a bit of a concern that Udoka Azubuike limits the ceiling of Dedric Lawson. I like the fact that Azubuike is just $6,500 on FanDuel, but that may be the only place I have a share of the frontcourt. I could see this being a good spot for Legerald Vick ($7,200 FD, $6,900 DK), who should have a safer floor now that conference play has started. The Kansas backcourt is a four-man rotation that can get messy, but Devon Dotson ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) is shooting 54.5 percent from the field over his last nine games, reaching double figures in seven of them.

Nevada (-9.5) vs. Utah State, o/u 148.5, 11:00 p.m. EST

Whether you're playing the mixed or late slate, you're likely going to want a piece of either the previously-discussed Caleb Martin ($8,700 FD, $9,200 DK), his brother Cody ($7,300 FD, $7,000 DK), or the often-underrated Jordan Caroline ($8,200 FD, $8,700 DK). Caroline is always worth a look in cash games, as he has yet to score in single digits this year. On the Utah State side, our optimizer likes Diego Brito ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK), who doesn't start but has played 20 or more minutes in each of his last four, averaging 18.0 FD points/game over that span. Of course, Sam Merrill ($8,000 FD, $8,500 DK) has the highest ceiling of the bunch. The 6-5 shooting guard had a rough game against a defensively-stout Houston team, and while Nevada represents a similar challenge, expect Merrill to put up a massive shot volume as he looks to keep the Aggies in the game.

Games to Avoid:

Michigan State (-12.5) vs. Northwestern, o/u 139.5, 8:30 p.m. EST

I was torn on which Big Ten game to feature here, and ultimately decided this one. Sure, the Spartans have the fourth-highest implied total of the night (as of Wednesday morning), but that over/under seems to be moving in the wrong direction. Of course, both Cassius Winston ($8,100 FD, $8,800 DK) and Nick Ward ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK) have pretty decent floors, but the 9-4 Wildcats sport the No. 32 defense in the country and are No. 287 in adjusted tempo. Now that we finally have a decent-sized weeknight slate to play, there's no reason to force pieces from this game into a lineup. The same could just as easily be said about the Nebraska/Maryland matchup, as both teams have paces outside the top-200 and defenses within the top-50.

Kansas St. (-2.5) vs. Texas, o/u 127.5, 9:00 p.m. EST (DraftKings Only)

There's 11 games to choose from on the DraftKings slate, so why feel the need to include the one with the lowest over/under on the day? We'll discuss the Dean Wade injury below, but I'm not sure that opens up any clear value plays. Senior Barry Brown ($6,900 DK) will be plenty serviceable on his home floor, but the top-10 defensive efficiency mark Texas sports makes me hesitant, especially when we're dealing with the No. 194-ranked team in adjusted tempo. The Texas rotation runs nine players deep, and goes up against a defense that KenPom ranks No. 2 nationwide. That whole team is a fade for me. I don't want to focus too much on the DraftKings-only side of things, but my early builds generally have me shying away from the Houston/Tulsa matchup for similar reasons.

Injuries:

Sagaba Konate (knee), West Virginia: Unlike some of the players mentioned below, Konate's absence opens up a few intriguing plays. One of which is Derek Culver ($3,500 FD, $6,200 DK), who is by far the largest site discrepancy of the day. He's a four-star freshman on the rise, who started the year on an indefinite suspension but has played the last two games, recording a double-double Dec. 30 against Lehigh. Other potential beneficiaries include starter Wesley Harris ($5,200 FD, $5,500 DK) and, possibly a stretch, but Logan Routt ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK).

Josh Langford (ankle), Michigan State: Langford gets a "questionable" tag because an ankle injury held him out of the second half of his last game (Dec. 29) for precautionary reasons. I'd be surprised if he sat, but a potentially-nagging injury along with a matchup against the 32nd-most efficiency defense (per KenPom), leaves me less likely to use him.

Dean Wade (foot), Kansas State: Wade is in line to miss anywhere from three to eight weeks due to a slight tear in his foot tendon. Makol Mawien ($4,100 DK) has seen the biggest minutes boost as a result, but Xavier Sneed ($6,700 DK) has been the most productive. There might be value in the former as a punt play, but it's difficult to put in much trust given it's the day's lowest over/under.

Collin Gillespie (concussion), Villanova: Gillespie has cleared concussion protocol and should be a pretty safe bet to return to the starting lineup. This means that any value owners had previously been getting out of minutes boosts for Joe Cremo ($4,100 DK) and Javon Quinerly ($3,000 DK) is likely to evaporate.

Jamuni McNeace (ankle), Oklahoma: McNeace has played in three games since missing back-to-back contests with an ankle injury, but reports have surfaced that the center is "more doubtful than probable." This likely means more opportunities for the KU frontcourt than anything else, but there could be some high-risk Oklahoma plays as well. Miles Reynolds ($6,000 FD, $4,600 DK) stepped into the starting lineup when McNeace first suffered the injury, and hasn't exited since. Furthermore, Kristian Doolittle ($5,100 FD, $4,500 DK) has seen 34 minutes in each of the last two games with McNeace limited to 17 and seven minutes in that stretch.

Jalen Coleman-Lands (hand), DePaul: JCL is out indefinitely with a fractured hand, which has opened the door for several players. Devin Gage ($5,500 DK) has become a more consistent producer with the ball in his hands more often, while Paul Reed ($5,800 DK) has been the one stepping into the starting lineup.