This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Another massive Saturday of hoops is on the docket here, with DraftKings featuring a 12-game slate at noon, an 11-game slate at 3:30 p.m. EST and a seven-gamer for the evening crowd, tipping at 8:00.
Main Slate
A wide variety of point totals exist on this main slate. My normal strategy is to fade the high-priced options in favor of balance and diversification. That's reflected in the choices below. But given the scatter of point totals, this is the first slate I've previewed this season where I can see stacking a game or two as the winning strategy. TCU-KSU, NC State-Miami and Creighton-Providence are the predictable spots, with Tulane-UCF being a sneaky spot.
Top Tier
Terquavion Smith, G, North Carolina State ($8,900)
I find the slate's top forward to be somewhat flawed, so if paying up, I come down to Smith or Markquis Nowell ($10,200), and I'm simply trying to save some funds with Smith. There's no debating Nowell's merits, but Smith has gone for 30+ DKP in nine of 10 in his own right, showing a 55.75 DKP ceiling. Miami is just 122nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while the Wolfpack push tempo, ranking 55th. They should flirt with 80 points, and Smith should be at the forefront of that effort.
Kadary Richmond, G, Seton Hall ($7,400)
Richmond has scored in double digits just twice in his last five, so there is some volatility. But it's not like he isn't getting chances, taking 53 shots. They just aren't falling. It's lowered his price $900 from its late-December peak, and he's managed consecutive 30+ DKP in two straight despite scoring inconsistently, as he's a capable rebounder, distributor and defender. Add in DePaul's fair 68th-ranked adjusted tempo and 161st defensive ranking, and there's some nice discounted upside.
Middle Tier
Arthur Kaluma, F, Creighton ($7,000)
Kaluma gets the nod because he's cheaper than TCU's Emanuel Miller ($7,300). Both are in positive matchups and in solid form, and both should have reasonable expectations of a 4x return. It simply comes down to budget and your preference in games you want shares of. Kaluma has a 27.25 DKP floor across his last three, though he was more volatile prior to that run. But as the Blue Jays' third-priced option on a team with the second-highest implied total (behind UNC), we should trust his recent usage (24.4. percent over the last five).
Sion James, G, Tulane ($6,600)
We've got a major clash of styles here, with Tulane being 17th in tempo and UCF ranked 354th. It creates some uncertainty within the Green Wave's core, but I also think this game will be largely ignored with bigger names abound. James leads the team in minutes at 36.5 per game and averages a decent 11.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals, resulting in 28.0 DKP. He's been below that number in 9 of 16 games however, so we see there's a higher ceiling with a low floor. GPP, low usage only.
Bargain Tier
Jordan Wright, G/F, Vanderbilt ($5,900)
Louisville's Mike James ($5,800) is going to be popular in this pricing tier, and I like him a good bit Saturday too. But I'm also struggling with some mid-to-bargain options at forward, where Wright qualifies. He's not flashy, and doesn't start, so we'll surely see low usage. He's averaged a cool 24.9 DKP across his last five by posting 11.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.0 apg and 1.0 steals, a cool 4.2x return. Arkansas is stout defensively (11th), but will run (53rd), hopefully setting Wright up for stability at worst.
Jalen Washington, F, North Carolina ($3,400)
Armando Bacot ($10,500) is listed as questionable after injuring his ankle in the first minute of the Heels game at Virginia Tuesday, but I'm guessing he doesn't play. He simply isn't needed against lowly Louisville, who have lost six straight and sit at 2-15 overall. It resulted in 27 minutes for Washington and 22.0 DKP. Nothing terrific, but a good deal at this price. Louisville is 241st defensively, so we know we need a piece of the UNC lineup. Seth Trimble ($3,700) likely bounces back here if you need to pivot, but we'll need to monitor Pete Nance's ($6,600) availability. Nance would be an interesting contrarian option if he plays and Bacot doesn't, though I'd question his minutes.
Afternoon Slate
The afternoon slate is similar to the main in game totals, as we've got four that are the clear high spots. But unlike earlier, 13 of the 22 teams featured here are expected to score 70 points, with some blowouts expected in lower-scoring games. It opens up more teams to build from, while offering core games to build around.
Top Tier
Azuolas Tubelis, F, Arizona ($10,000)
This seems like a set and forget it start to all lineups. Sure, Tubelis needs 40 DKP for a 4x return, but he's done that in three straight and four of five, posting a 33.25 DKP floor. It's certainly a tempo clash, with Arizona checking in 14th and Oregon 225th, but the Ducks' 85th defensive ranking shouldn't scare us away. I'm always a proponent of paying for frontcourt options as there just seems to be more value at guard, and that certainly plays out below. There isn't a safer floor, safer ceiling and/or higher ceiling than Arizona's big man.
Keion Brooks, F, Washington ($8,300)
Here's where I'm hoping we can be different and still get some potential. The matchup isn't great; Cal sits 359th in tempo, but a more targetable 175th defensively. The latter number has the Huskies expecting to flirt with 70 points still, and Brooks will be the main provider. In his last six games, he's taken a massive 15.7 shots nightly. Pair that with 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while rarely leaving the court (35.0 minutes), and we've got the makings for 30-40 DKP.
Middle Tier
Reece Beekman, G, Virginia ($7,000)
Beekman is what I'm speaking to in the intro to this portion of Saturday's contests. Who wants to target a Virginia player knowing their grind-it-out style? The price point is uncomfortable, having risen $800 across the last three games,but UVA is quietly expected to put up 70 points against Florida State's 219th-ranked defense. Pair that with his 23.0 DKP floor and 34 DKP ceiling across the last five and there's intrigue for both cash and GPP lineups with nearly guaranteed low usage.
Dane Goodwin, G, Notre Dame ($6,400)
Goodwin lands here as the highest-priced Irish, but he's also in terrific form, averaging 30.6 DKP across his last three. Those familiar with my columns know I love to target guards against the Orange's 2-3 zone. Notre Dame doesn't give us an immediate obvious choice, so see who fits your budget. Cormac Ryan ($6,100) leads the team in 3-point shots, followed closely by Trey Wertz ($5,200). We can also consider freshman JJ Starling ($5,400), who has at least 21.75 DKP in seven of eight. Syracuse is 104th defensively and 155th against the 3-point shot. Don't stack the Irish please, but use one of these pieces as you round out your build.
Bargain Tier
DeAndre Gholston, G, Missouri ($4,300)
Gholston moved out of the starting lineup six games ago and is averaging 13.0 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.0 steals since. Sure, that's not much peripherally, but the 13 points alone get us to a near 4x return at this low price. He's seen a 27.3 percent usage rate over the last five, and the game has a massive 150-point total. He offers a pretty low-risk buy-in to that high-scoring opportunity and has had a 31.3 DKP ceiling since becoming a reserve.
Jaden Bradley, G, Alabama ($4,200)
Bradley seems to present as a low-risk, slightly low-reward option who I expect to be a relatively popular paydown. Perhaps that's reason to fade, but there seems to be such a nice floor. He's put up at least 16 DKP in seven straight since moving into the starting lineup. The Tide are expected to score 80+ in a game where they are favored heavily, which should just open up more minutes for the freshman to continue his development.
Evening Slate
Only two games on this slate have totals north of 140, with two more flirting with that moderate total. It's an odd slate pricing wise, with no player priced north of $9,000 but a plethora of options in the 7k tier. Go big at the to, or build a well-balanced lineup?
Wake Forest is an outlier for me Saturday evening. They have four players priced at $7,000 or higher, making it hard to feel good about any of them. Pair that with Boston College's 233rd-ranked tempo, and I'm out on the Deacons here despite their 71.5-point implied total.
Top Tier
Johni Broome, F, Auburn ($9,000)
As previously stated, I prefer sure things at forward and getting my value/potential from more deep backcourts. Broome, at this price, seems like a no-brainer. He's coming off of four straight double-doubles and has hit 30+ DKP in seven straight and nine of 10. He's not going to provide a huge ceiling, as Mississippi State checks in eighth defensively and 325th in tempo, but 10 points and 10 boards is close to 4x, and unlike in the earlier slates, he's not an overpriced top option.
Matt Bradley, G, San Diego State ($8,100)
With the slate's highest total at 147, we're not likely able to avoid this game, potentially on either side. Bradley seems like he'll get a scoring boost here thanks to New Mexico's 20th-ranked tempo. He's coming off of a double-double and has gone for 36 DKP or greater in three of his last four outings, a nice 4.4x return. Less would be disappointing here.
Middle Tier
Tyger Campbell, G, UCLA ($7,000)
The Bruins are a team we can't overlook in our builds thanks to their 75-point expected total. Their top two are a little pricy and can tend to cannibalize each other's production, so I'm happy to take the $1,000-$1,600 savings on Campbell. He averages nearly 13 shots nightly, creating a nice scoring floor, and his current run of distribution is creating upside, averaging 7.7 assists across his last three outings.
Harrison Ingram, F, Stanford ($6,200)
This is an admittedly tough spot for the Cardinal, with Washington State 323rd in tempo and 68th defensively, which has resulted in a low 63 point expected total for the Cardinal. But this is also a case where I'll buy the dip in price. Ingram has been priced as high as $7,800 this season, and while he clearly hasn't played to that level, it speaks to his talent and anticipated role. He's gone for 24.8 DKP or more in three of the last five, exactly a 4x return, and that's all we're looking for here. Despite lackluster results, he's still third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding and first in assists.
Bargain Tier
Justin Powell, G, Washington State ($5,600)
Powell's price doesn't appear to have caught up to his recent run of solid play. He's scored in double digits in four straight for the Cougars, averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists across 32.8 minutes, resulting in a 23.75 DKP average, a sound 4.2x return. With Washington State flirting with a 70 point total, Powell should continue this form.
Allen Flanigan, G, Auburn ($5,200)
Not my intention to double dip on the Tigers, and it's certainly a risk with MSU's previously mentioned defensive prowess. But it's all about opportunity, and Flanigan seems to have that. Chris Moore ($4,200) didn't practice Friday after separating his shoulder in Auburn's last game, and seems unlikely to play here. Flanigan has played 30+ minutes in each of the last two games, putting up 36.0 and 24.8 DKP. We don't even need that much for a 4x return. If the minutes remain heavy, it's hard to see Flanigan not reaching 20 DKP, which works just fine at this number, though there's obviously the potential for upside.
