College Hoops Barometer: March Madness in January

They don't call it March Madness for nothing, but the unpredictability of college basketball starts way before the brackets unfold. For example, Baylor and UCLA opened at 80-1 odds to win the NCAA Title. They could be the top two teams in the country at this point. Meanwhile, Louisville opened at 10-1; the Cardinals dropped their first two ACC games. Creighton started the season at 200-1 odds to cut down the nets; the Bluejays are a surefire top-10 team in the country now. And who saw Minnesota (300-1) and Florida State (200-1) as possible contenders?

It's still early, of course, and the ACC appears to be particularly volatile. Sure, the usual suspects will likely end up on top, but it's worth noting the struggles of some bluebloods like Duke, Syracuse, Michigan State, Virginia and UConn. At least for now, it's March Madness in January.

UPGRADE

Tim Williams, F, New Mexico - The 6-foot-8 senior has been on a scoring frenzy lately, averaging 28 points over his last two contests. Williams is shooting a blistering 82.1 percent over that span. He also had five blocked shots in Saturday's clash with Nevada. Unfortunately for the Lobos, New Mexico lost both games. Still, Williams is second in scoring and seventh in rebounding in the Mountain West and has certainly placed himself in the running for conference player of the year. His chief competition right now is Chandler Hutchison on Boise State, who is averaging 18.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists per tilt for the 11-4 Broncos.

Abdul-Malik Abu, F, North Carolina State - Freshman point guard Dennis Smith, Jr. is getting most of the pub for the Wolfpack of late, and perhaps rightly so. After all, the ultra-talented neophyte is a surefire NBA lottery pick and coming off a monstrous triple-double against Virginia Tech. Still, Abu has two double-doubles in his last four games, and was one of the few bright spots in Sunday's ugly 107-56 loss to UNC. Over those last four tilts, the junior is averaging 12.8 points and 10.3 rebounds. Abu had seven-straight games without a double-double prior to these most recent contests. With 17 double-doubles to his name a season ago, it appears likely that Abu has regained his mojo from his sophomore campaign.

Justin Patton, C, Creighton - The freshman seven-footer is already proving beastly for the Bluejays. Patton notched back-to-back 20-point games for the first time in his brief collegiate career to lead Creighton to two dominating road wins last week against St. John's and Providence. The Big East Freshman of the Week averaged 22.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 rejections in those victories. He's second in scoring and first in rebounding for the Bluejays. In addition, Patton is third in the conference in shot-blocking, swatting 1.6 balls per tilt. Patton may only be starting to scratch the surface of his potential, which is a scary proposition for opponents.

Andrew White, G/F, Syracuse - White is on his third collegiate spot, having already spent time at Kansas and Nebraska. While he was a bench player for the Jayhawks for two seasons, White did play a crucial role on last season's Cornhusker squad. However, an argument can be made that this is the best basketball White has played during his time in the college game. Over his last three contests, White is averaging 21.7 points and 7.7 rebounds. That includes his first double-double of the season last Wednesday versus Miami, which was just the fourth such output of his career. Despite the frontcourt depth of the Orange, White has proven himself a capable swingman, capable of playing in the guard slot but still being able to rebound like a big man.

CHECK STATUS

David Collette, F, Utah - Collette has exceeded expectations since transferring from Utah State. After sitting out due to transfer rules, Collette has become the leading scorer for the Utes after just seven games with the squad. He has scored in double-digits in all seven of those contests, while nearly tallying double-doubles in three of those games. Along with junior Kyle Kuzma and emerging freshman Devon Daniels at the swing position, the Utes have a terrific front line that could allow them to make some noise in the Pac-12. The Utes have four losses on the season, but three of them were to ranked teams. In addition, Utah has won four of its last five games outright. The emergence of Collette certainly appears to be paying dividends already.

Matthew Fisher-Davis, G, Vanderbilt - True, Fisher-Davis did have a poor outing in Saturday's 59-56 loss to Alabama. However, overall the junior has taken his game to new heights this season. Fisher-Davis is averaging 16.9 points per game, more than seven points higher than last year. Though Fisher-Davis is still a long range bomber, the uptick in scoring can mostly be attributed to his newfound ability to get to the free throw line. Fisher-Davis shot just 36 foul shots all of last season, despite averaging over 27 minutes played per game. Through 15 contests as a junior, he's nearly doubled that tally with 70 free throws attempted. He's an 82.9 percent shooter from the charity stripe; you do the math. Though not a huge contributor in other categories, Fisher-Davis does enough to warrant consideration, particularly now that he is scoring at an advanced clip.

Jeremy Hemsley, G, San Diego State - The sophomore Hemsley sometimes lives and dies by the three-pointer. He canned six treys at Nevada en route to 30 points on January 4th, but then missed all of his shots from downtown in a subsequent loss at Boise State. That being said, Hensley is still hitting 48.6 percent of his threes, so there does not appear to be an end in sight for his long distance gunning. Still, he might be better served working his magic inside the arc, whether getting to the basket and drawing fouls or dishing off to find his teammates. Hensley is a capable passer, averaging 2.4 dimes per contest. Perhaps too much has been put on the shoulders of Hensley and backcourt mate Trey Kill, as the normally dominant Aztecs have limped to an uncharacteristic 8-7 start, including 0-3 in the Mountain West.

Jordan Barnett, F, Missouri - The transfer from Texas played sparingly over two seasons for the Longhorns, but he might be finding his groove as a Tiger. Though Mizzou is likely to struggle this season in the SEC, Barnett could emerge as the top player for the Tigers when all is said and done. Through five games with the Tigers, Barnett leads the squad in rebounding and is second in scoring. That includes nearly three-straight games with double-doubles. Not surprisingly, over that span Barnett is averaging 16 points and 10.3 rebounds per tilt. Not much may go right for Missouri this season, but Barnett could give the Tigers some hope.

DOWNGRADE

Reid Travis, F, Stanford - A promising breakout season for Travis has been derailed by a shoulder injury. Travis came to Stanford with lofty expectations, but has failed to live up to the hype thus far. Travis struggled as a freshman, playing mostly off the bench en route to averages of 6.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. A stress fracture in his left leg limited him to all but eight games last season. it appears the injury bug has struck again, as Travis will be sidelined indefinitely by the shoulder condition. Travis was off to an exceptional start for the Cardinal, managing 17.5 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Those figures placed him in the top five in both categories in the Pac-12. Stanford is 0-4 to begin conference play, with no end to the misery in sight due to Travis's likely lengthy absence.

Amile Jefferson, F, Duke - Grayson Allen is dominating the headlines these days for all the wrong reasons, but Jefferson just re-injured the same foot that cost him three months last season. While the Blue Devils are stacked with young talent, Jefferson provides a steady veteran presence, and his absence at a time when Coach K will not be on the sidelines due to back surgery is certainly notable. The injury is not considered nearly as serious as last year, though Jefferson will miss the Florida State game due to the ailment. Jefferson is averaging a double-double in his final season at Duke. Freshmen Harry Giles and Marques Bolden will look to capitalize on the additional minutes.

Michal Cekovsky, C, Maryland - The Slovakian big man has missed three-straight games due to a nagging ankle injury, and could miss a fourth in Tuesday's clash with Indiana. Cekovsky had played a larger role as a junior this season prior to the injury, averaging career highs of 10 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. The Terps did recently get Damonte Dodd back from injury, and freshman Justin Jackson is already playing big minutes. However, after playing a soft non-conference schedule, Maryland will need a healthy roster as the Terps get into the meat of their Big Ten schedule.

Seth Allen, G, Virginia Tech - Allen, a graduate student and transfer from Maryland, suffered a concussion against NC State on January 4th, and missed Virginia Tech's subsequent clash with Florida State. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Hokies lost both contests. Allen is one of five Hokies averaging double figures in points, though he has been extremely efficient in terms of scoring. The 6-foot-1 guard is shooting an impressive 55.1 percent from the floor, including 43.2 percent from long range. Allen is also third on the squad in dishing while also managing 2.4 rebounds per contest. Allen is a game-time decision versus Syracuse as Virginia Tech looks to stop a two-game slide after beginning the season with a record of 12-1.