College basketball betting picks for New Year's Eve are abundant given a full slate of action. Starting in the afternoon, we have a pair of intriguing games tipping off in Virginia, as well as a couple of Big East battles to consider. Here are my predictions for a trio of games, with the first set to tip off in the early afternoon.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Virginia 
at Virginia Tech 
The Hokies aren't great defensively, ranking 77th in adjusted efficiency, but what's most alarming is their lack of resistance inside the paint. Virginia Tech has allowed opponents to make 52 percent of two-point attempts (ranked 200th), and it is just as weak on the defensive glass, ranking 234th in rebounding percentage.
The latter is a significant issue in this matchup, especially if Tobi Lawal (ankle) remains sidelined. The Cavaliers are among the best at collecting offensive boards, ranking third among all D-1 teams in offensive rebounding rate. Additionally, they are great at scoring inside, making 57.4 percent of two-point attempts (58th), though they're even more dangerous from the perimeter, where they've made 39.6 percent of three-point attempts (14th).
Virginia is also just as effective at defending inside the paint. The Cavaliers are holding opponents to 44 percent on two-point attempts, the 15th-lowest percentage in the nation. They've also held opponents under 31 percent on three-point attempts and, when combined with their interior defense, have the 17th-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed. Virginia Tech is exceptional at protecting the ball, posting the fourth-lowest offensive turnover percentage, but it's not nearly as high in any other category. The Hokies rank outside the top-80 teams in effective field-goal percentage, offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts.
Considering Virginia Tech's defense is significantly softer near the basket, I like our odds of seeing Virginia pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Cavaliers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia -5.5
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George Washington 
at Richmond 
George Washington is the much better offensive team in this matchup, and if that's not enough, Richmond's defense has two weaknesses that play right into GW's hands.
First, Richmond is significantly weaker at guarding inside the paint, allowing opponents to make 53 percent of two-point attempts (ranked 212th). This is a major problem in this matchup because George Washington excels at scoring inside the arc, having made 58 percent of shot attempts, the 40th-highest mark.
Similarly, George Washington is skilled at drawing contact when driving to the rim, ranking 28th in free-throw attempt rate. This is less than ideal for Richmond, as it ranks 159th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, its other defensive area of concern.
GW isn't nearly as sharp when it plays on the other end of the court, ranking 145th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the same is true for Richmond, which ranks 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Overall, George Washington is the significantly better offensive team. I'm taking the Revolutionaries in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: George Washington -2.5
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Connecticut 
at Xavier 
Xavier's offense is in for a long day. The Musketeers haven't been great at scoring for most of the year, ranking 119th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and now they have to face one of the best defensive teams in the nation.
UConn ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, primarily because it has forced difficult shots all year. The Huskies have held opponents to 43 percent on two-point attempts (ranked ninth) and 26 percent on three-point attempts (ranked fourth), yielding the third-best effective field goal percentage allowed among all D-1 teams. They also rank in the top 90 teams in turnovers and rebounding, giving them a well-rounded defensive curtain. Xavier, for its part, ranks outside the top 200 teams in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate, giving it an unlikely chance to crack the sturdy UConn defense.
The Huskies aren't quite as elite at the other end, where they rank 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they're still solid as we might expect given their recent history. Xavier's defense is again well behind in the matchup at this end of the court, ranking 84th in adjusted efficiency. The key, however, is that the Musketeers usually do a good job with boxing out, ranking 39th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Huskies are typically strong on the offensive glass, so limiting second-chance opportunities could make all the difference in staying in the game.
I'm not convinced that the home team has enough firepower to keep pace with the Huskies, especially going against an elite defense. At the same time, I'd rather not lay a double-digit spread on a road team at this early juncture in the conference season. All things considered, I'd rather take our chances on UConn's defense keeping a lid on the rim, thus, a low point total. I'm on the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 143.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Virginia -5.5
- George Washington -2.5
- UConn at Xavier - Under 143.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
