This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got a short but sweet college hoops slate on Friday evening. Coming off three straight 3-0 sweeps, I present my predictions for three select games.
College Basketball Picks Today
VCU at 
Dayton
These two teams have an even matchup at one end of the court but a colossal mismatch at the other.
VCU is proving to be the best offensive team in the Atlantic 10, recording the highest efficiency rating during league competition. At the same time, Dayton's defense has been shaky, ranking 10th in defense among all 15 teams in the conference. This has been a consistent weakness for the home team, ranking 138th in the nation for the whole season, so the Rams will likely take advantage. The visitors are also strong on the glass, logging the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference, with Dayton ranking sixth in defensive rebounding. The Rams have another advantage inside with their close-range scoring abilities, making 54 percent of two-point attempts, which is the third-highest mark in the ACC. This is substantially better than Dayton's defense, which has allowed A10 opponents to make 54 percent of two-pointers, 11th in the conference.
We have a much tighter battle on the other side of the court. Dayton sports the third-highest offensive efficiency rating during conference play, with VCU's defense one step above with the second-best defensive rating. The Rams' defense also edges the Flyers' offense in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and turnovers. The latter is noteworthy as VCU has been hyper-active at causing mayhem, boasting the highest turnover and steal percentages among A10 teams. Dayton's offense ranks seventh and ninth, respectively, in the same two categories, so it's not immune to giving up the ball.
Overall, VCU is better at both ends of the court, and it's played a balanced brand of basketball at a high level throughout the conference season. Road wins are never promised, but I like our odds of seeing VCU get the job done on Friday. I'm taking the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: VCU -1.5
St. John's at 
Connecticut
St. John's has won its last nine games, the nation's fourth-longest active win streak. This impressive run will now be put to the ultimate test, as the Red Storm will face its most formidable challenge yet during this stretch.
Despite all the success, the Johnnies still have one critical flaw on offense that will come back to bite them. Namely, they can't and won't shoot from long range. St. John's has made under 30 percent of its three-point attempts this season, 340th in the nation, and it seldom attempts them, 346th in three-point attempt rate. Given these facts, it's no surprise to see that two-pointers account for 60 percent of its total points, the third-highest mark among all D-1 teams. It's safe to say St. John's relies on close-range scoring to win. Well, this isn't the best matchup if that's your only option. UConn has played sub-par on defense throughout most of the year, but interior defense is one area where it's strong. The Huskies are holding opponents to 45 percent on shots inside the arc, the 20th-best mark in the nation. This strength has also carried into league competition, where they rank fourth in the Big East in the same category. Overall, St. John's offense and UConn's defense share the same efficiency ranking, eighth, among Big East teams, giving us an even matchup on paper. However, I believe the aforementioned strengths and weaknesses will make all the difference.
When playing in the other direction, we again see identical rankings. Since the conference season started, UConn boasts the highest offensive rating, while St. John's has the best defensive rating. Both are elite at this end in many different categories. The Huskies' offense ranks top-four in the league in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, three-point FG percentage, and two-point FG percentage. The Johnnies rank top-four in the same categories, except for three-point defense, where it's allowed conference opponents to make almost 33 percent, sixth in the league. Connecticut has made a league-best 39 percent from beyond the arc against Big East opponents.
One other important note for this game: it's the Return of the Mack. According to the latest reports, UConn five-star freshman Liam McNeeley is reportedly scheduled to return to the court on Friday after missing the last eight games due to an ankle injury suffered on New Year's Day. McNeely had scored in double-figures in 11 of 14 games played before his injury, so we don't want to overlook his return.
Most college hoops fans are well aware of UConn's defensive issues this season, and for good reason, but this is the kind of matchup that it relishes, facing an opponent that is restricted to inside scoring. It's not very often we can take UConn at home close to a pick'em. I'll take it. I'm on the Huskies.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -2.5
San Jose State 
at Boise State 
You're hard-pressed to find a more significant mismatch on the boards. Here, we have one of the best rebounding teams taking on one of the worst.
When the Broncos have the ball, their high-powered offensive attack will take on a defense that has struggled to get stops. Boise State boasts the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Mountain West during the conference season, with San Jose State's defense at the other end of the standings, ninth. Similarly, the Broncos also have the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league, with the Spartans coming in last in defensive rebounding. I should also note that Boise State is making a league-best 59 percent of two-point attempts against conference foes, with San Jose State allowing 51 percent, which is fifth in the league. Based on these disadvantages, it's hard to imagine the Spartans slowing down the Broncos.
When the Spartans have the ball, they will face a respectable defense with the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the nation. San Jose State isn't typically effective on the offensive glass, 270th in rebounding, but Boise State will be ready to secure the boards just in case the home team has any thoughts about getting second-chance opportunities. The bigger picture: Boise State's defense has played at a higher level than San Jose State's offense throughout most of the year, with the road team ranking 129th in offensive efficiency and the home team ranking 70th on defense. The Spartans' best offensive skill is long-range shooting, as they're knocking down a league-best 39 percent of shots from beyond the arc against Mountain West opponents. It hasn't been nearly as successful inside, making under 46 percent. Boise State ranks fourth in two-point defense among MWC teams, so San Jose State must stay hot from deep if it wants a shot at pulling an upset.
Considering the Broncos' gargantuan rebounding advantage, I like the home team's odds of piling on the points and pulling away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Broncos.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State -14
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- VCU -1.5
- UConn -2.5
- Boise State -14
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
