This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a thrilling college hoops slate on tap for Wednesday evening, one that we'll certainly want to enjoy as it's the last big weeknight of the regular season. Here are my predictions for a trio of games involving potential NCAA Tournament teams.
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Maryland 
at Michigan 
The Terrapins have played at an elite level over the past couple of months, winning 11 of 14 games, with their three losses coming by a combined eight points. Wednesday's game will be among their most challenging, but they've already defeated teams like UCLA, Illinois, and Wisconsin during this stretch, proving they're capable of beating a good team consistently.
The Wolverines can make a similar claim, having won 12 of 16 games since the start of the New Year. Their losses haven't been as competitive, with the four coming by a combined 62 points. Even still, much like the visiting team, they have shown they can defeat some of the best teams, though they appear to have more noticeable flaws.
Michigan's most glaring issue is on the offensive side of the court, where it ranks 11th in efficiency during the Big Ten conference season. The Wolverines are highly proficient at drawing contact and scoring from close range, although these strengths are dampened by their inability to take care of the ball. Michigan ranks 332nd in offensive turnover percentage for the whole season, and it ranks last in the Big Ten during conference play, an issue that has plagued it all season long. It's also a deep-rooted problem, as the Wolverines rank 349th in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting that a large portion of the giveaways are unforced errors. Either way, this is a problem in almost any matchup, and it's an even bigger problem against an elite defensive team like Maryland. The Terps rank 11th in defensive efficiency and have ranked near the top of the charts for most of the season in several key defensive categories, recording top 55 rankings in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
The Wolverines have better numbers when playing in the other direction, though they again have a few weak spots. Specifically, Michigan doesn't apply much pressure, recording the second-worst defensive turnover percentage among Big Ten teams during league play. It also ranks 12th in defensive rebounding, another area for opposing teams to exploit. At first glance, Michigan's defense slightly outranks Maryland's offense in efficiency for the whole season, but if we focus on conference-only data, then the Terps win the efficiency category, fifth against sixth. The Terps have played well offensively in other areas during league play, ranking sixth in turnover percentage, seventh in free-throw attempt rate, and second in three-point field goal percentage.
Overall, Maryland has demonstrated itself to be the more resilient and consistent team. Obviously, winning this game won't be easy, but the Terps have enough talent, grit, and the proper skill set to stay in the game and make their move when the opportunity presents itself. I'm taking the Terrapins.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland +1.5
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Missouri 
at Oklahoma 
The Tigers are coming off a crushing overtime loss at Vanderbilt, a game where they led for seemingly the entire way until the upstart home team hit an improbable game-tying buzzer beater at the end of regulation. Missouri has already shown it knows how to shake off a disappointing loss, as it had a similar outcome when it hosted Texas A&M in early February, and it responded by thrashing Oklahoma by 24 points in the following game. A closer look at Wednesday's matchup leads me to believe we might see a similar outcome, considering the Tigers' strengths and how they compare to the Sooners' weaknesses.
Missouri's most significant advantage in this matchup comes on the defensive side of the court. Since the conference season tipped off, the Tigers rank ninth among SEC teams in defensive efficiency, a few ticks better than the Sooners' offense, which comes in at 12th. Perhaps more importantly, in the same period, Oklahoma has the second-worst turnover percentage, a poor trait for any game, and it's even worse in this one considering that Missouri boasts the highest steal percentage in the Big 12 and the second-highest defensive turnover percentage. This played out exactly as expected when these two teams last saw each other, as Oklahoma committed 17 giveaways in the 24-point blowout. And for what it's worth, the Sooners are also poor at offensive rebounding, again recording the second-worst percentage in the league. Between turning the ball over and not getting second-chance opportunities, it's easy to see why this team has lost 12 of 16 conference games.
The Tigers again enjoy significant advantages at the other end of the court. This is the case in many of their matchups, as they've proven to be among the best offensive teams, recording the fifth-highest efficiency rating in the nation. Their high-powered offense is fuelled by elite numbers in shooting, rebounding, and drawing contact. Specifically, among all D-1 teams, Missouri's offense ranks 49th in turnover percentage, 79th in offensive rebounding, and second in free-throw attempt rate. It has made 57 percent of two-point attempts (19th) and 38 percent of three-point attempts (23rd), yielding the 10th-highest effective field goal percentage. Truly outstanding numbers in just about all of the critical categories. At the same time, Oklahoma has had sub-par defensive numbers all season. Against SEC competition, the Sooners' defense ranks below the league average in efficiency (14th), effective field goal percentage allowed (12th), turnovers (11th), rebounding (11th), and free-throw attempt rate allowed (14th). It's also terrible at stopping opponents inside the paint, allowing conference opponents to make 56 percent of two-point attempts, the third-worst mark allowed in the league. Oklahoma has had this same issue since the start of the year, allowing 55 percent from inside the arc for the whole season, 321st in the nation.
Despite the severe issues on both sides of the court, Oklahoma has still managed to win four conference games. This is seemingly the same team that beat Arizona and Michigan during the non-conference season, so anything is possible; however, based on the matchups at each end of the court, I like Missouri's odds of getting back in the win column. I'm taking the Tigers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri -4.5
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Marquette 
at Connecticut 
The Golden Eagles have assembled an outstanding resume but are far from perfect. They've lost seven games, all but two on the road. Each road loss was by at least six points, and their biggest home loss came at the hands of UConn, 77-69. Thus, they will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them on Wednesday.
The Huskies, meanwhile, have won 20 of 29 games, thanks mostly to their explosive offense. Their defensive issues are well-documented at this point, given the spotlight that follows the reigning champ. Even with a lackluster defense, they have already beaten teams like Baylor, Gonzaga, and Creighton.
Marquette has an elite defense, ranking 18th in efficiency, though it has a significant issue that UConn appears poised to attack. Namely, the Golden Eagers are weak on the glass, posting the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Big East conference season. In the same period, UConn leads the league in offensive efficiency and has the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage, a powerful combination against a team that struggles to secure defensive boards. The Golden Eagles are similarly soft at close range, allowing opponents to make 52 percent of shots inside the arc, 212th in the nation. The Huskies are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having made 58 percent of two-point shots, the 12th-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Simply put, Marquette's defense is outstanding, but UConn's offense is better.
Looking at the other side of the court, the Golden Eagles also appear to have a noticeable offensive advantage from a big-picture perspective. That said, a closer look suggests that their playing style isn't built to take advantage of the Huskies' defensive weaknesses. Specifically, UConn's worst defensive issue is its struggle to guard without fouling, logging the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among Big East teams. As it turns out, Marquette is primarily a jump-shooting team, ranking near the bottom of the nation in free-throw attempt rate, 346th to be exact. Similarly, the Huskies are stout in the paint, holding conference opponents to under 48 percent on two-point attempts, the third-best mark in the league. Given this strength, it's logical to see that UConn often gets gashed from the perimeter, though Marquette surprisingly makes under 33 percent of its three-point attempts, 226th in the nation. The Golden Eagles hoist them up at a high rate, 38th-most frequent, but the accuracy is below average- not an ideal combo, to say the least.
Last time these two teams met, UConn absolutely dominated the matchup, jumping out to a 26-11 lead and never looking back. Marquette kept the final margin respectable, but that's in part because the Huskies committed 25 giveaways, an astounding number for any game, never mind one that it firmly controlled. This was by far UConn's worst game from a turnover standpoint, so it's hard to imagine a similar type of performance on Wednesday, especially playing at home. Given the matchup and location of Wednesday's game, I like the Huskies' odds of defending home court. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Connecticut -3.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Maryland +1.5
- Missouri -4.5
- Connecticut -3.5
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