This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate brings us another helping of Tuesday's appetizers, i.e., more action from the NIT and the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. Here are my predictions for the marquee events of the day.
VCU 
vs. Villanova
VCU came within a game of making its way to the Big Dance, for what would've been its third time in four seasons. Unfortunately for the Rams, they now find themselves in the NIT, but they made an honest push in their last appearance, winning a game against Princeton in 2022 before losing to Wake Forest in the second round. The challenge with picking NIT games is motivation becomes a legitimate concern without a national championship hanging in the balance. In this case, one might imagine VCU relishes the opportunity to win on the road against an established Big East team. Back in November, the Rams had Iowa State on the ropes, holding a 10-point lead with six minutes to go before falling, 68-64. This performance, combined with its win over Dayton, 49-47, shows that the Rams can hold their own among the best.
Villanova, meanwhile, missed the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive season, something that hasn't happened in almost two decades. From March 2005 through 2022, former head coach Jay Wright's final season, the Wildcats missed the tournament in just one season (2012), excluding the Covid year. Despite missing the cut, Villanova had flashes of greatness throughout the season, defeating multiple tournament teams in Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Creighton. That said, it has also had several lowlights. Whether it was losing to Penn, finishing last place in the Big 5 Classic, a tournament featuring the six member schools of the Philadelphia Big 5, or coming one missed shot away from losing to DePaul in the Big East tournament, the Wildcats have failed to meet expectations in many instances.
In comparing these teams, they appear remarkably similar. Both are stronger on defense and both prefer playing at an extremely slow pace. VCU ranks 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency with its tempo ranking 302nd among all D1 teams, while Villanova ranks 14th in defensive efficiency with its tempo nearly last in the nation, 350th. Given these overall team profiles, points will likely come at a premium with fewer possessions involved.
These teams are also similar offensively in that both prefer shooting from the perimeter, the key difference, however, is that VCU is multi-dimensional and can score other ways if needed. The Rams rank 91st in effective field goal percentage, 78th in three-point percentage, and 146th in two-pointers. Villanova, on the other hand, ranks 175th in effective field goal percentage, 179th from behind the arc, and 171st inside the arc. Despite these middling numbers, Villanova still attempts three-pointers at the 11th-highest frequency among all D1 teams. It also often settles for jump shots, ranking 337th in free throw attempt rate. If Villanova finds open looks and gets in rhythm, it's dangerous, otherwise, problems arise. VCU has been effective at challenging shots throughout the season, logging the 19th-best effective field goal percentage allowed in the nation, so it has a fair chance at disrupting the Wildcats' offensive attack.
Given the profile of each team, I like our odds of seeing a defensive, low-scoring battle where VCU relentlessly sticks to Villanova throughout the game. I'm taking the points and the under in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: VCU +6.5 and Under 131.5
Colorado 
vs. Boise State 
Colorado was on fire up until the Pac-12 title game against Oregon. The Buffaloes had won eight consecutive games before the loss, collecting wins over Utah (twice), Oregon (on the road), and Washington State, among others. Colorado has reached this point thanks to a balanced brand of basketball, combined with the ascension of star point guard KJ Simpson, who I argue is the best player in this game. Simpson's overall performance has been so spectacular that he has worked his way into the top 10 of KenPom's Player of the Year standings. The only point guards ranked higher are Tristen Newton and Jamal Shead. In addition to the excellent guard play, Colorado has an experienced frontcourt combined with projected lottery pick Cody Williams, who came off the bench in the Pac-12 tournament following a minor injury at the start of March.
Boise State, meanwhile, has lost two of its last three games and nearly lost the third before performing a furious rally to comeback and stun San Diego State in overtime. With 10 minutes remaining in the game, the Broncos had just a five percent chance of winning, according to KenPom. Comeback or not, it's fair to say the Broncos haven't played their best in recent games.
When Colorado has the ball, it has a stiff challenge on paper, with its offensive efficiency ranking comparable to Boise State's, but there's more to the story. Despite the excellent defensive efficiency rating, the Broncos aren't strong at guarding inside the paint. They are holding opponents to 31 percent from behind the arc, the 23rd-best percentage allowed, but they're also allowing 52 percent from inside, 259th among all D1 teams. The Buffaloes can easily take advantage of this weakness, as they've made 54 percent of two-pointers, the 52nd-highest percentage. Boise State might be tempted to bring extra help in the paint, but that could backfire because Colorado can score other ways if needed. The Buffaloes are dangerous because they're also knocking down 39 percent of shots from behind the arc, the fifth-highest mark in the nation. And for good measure, they're knocking down 78 percent from the charity stripe, the 16th-highest in D1.
When Boise State has the ball, it will encounter something it hasn't seen much, an opponent who can rebound as well as itself. The Broncos' best asset has been their elite ability to collect boards, boasting the highest offensive and defensive rebounding percentages in the Mountain West during conference play. It won't be so easy on Wednesday, as Colorado recorded the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the Pac-12 and had the third-highest on offense. Additionally, Boise State scored a high volume of points from the charity stripe, logging the third-highest free throw attempt rate in the conference during league play. At the same time, Colorado had the best free throw attempt rate allowed in the Pac-12, effectively neutralizing another valuable trait.
Boise State is undoubtedly a respectable team, but ultimately I'm betting that Colorado will emerge victorious thanks to its elite guard play and strong interior presence. I'm laying the points with Colorado.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- VCU +6.5
- VCU vs. Villanova - Under 131.5
- Colorado -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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