This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Like most other Tuesdays, we have a busy night in college hoops, with all the major conferences seeing some action. Here are my predictions for three select games on Tuesday evening.
Texas Tech 
at Cincinnati 
The Bearcats are proving to be one of the best defensive teams in the country, however, their offense is becoming a liability that's hard to overlook. Cincinnati ranks 133rd in offensive efficiency, a terrible standing for a high-major team, and it's only gotten worse against conference competition. The Bearcats rank last in offensive efficiency among the Big 12 during league play and rank below the league average in most categories. During the conference season, they are making under 46 percent of shots inside the arc and under 27 percent beyond it, yielding the second-worst effective field goal percentage in the Big 12. Cincinnati has averaged under 60 points per game through six conference games, so it's been tough sledding since the start of the New Year.
In the same period, the Red Raiders have performed significantly better on defense. Texas Tech ranks eighth among Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency during league play and holds opponents to the eighth-best effective field goal percentage allowed. The Red Raiders have played well defensively for most of the year, ranking 37th in efficiency for the whole season. They again rank well above the D-1 average in most areas, including the 43rd-best effective field goal percentage allowed.
When playing in the other direction, Texas Tech is among the best. The Raiders have the ninth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and this elite level of play has carried over into conference play. Among Big 12 teams, Texas Tech ranks second in offensive efficiency and three-point field goal percentage, and it ranks first in offensive rebounding percentage. The latter is a critical note because Cincinnati hasn't been as strong on the glass, ranking 143rd in defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. Even though the Bearcats are elite at this end, posting the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, they haven't played as well against Big 12 opponents. Cincinnati ranks fourth on defense during conference play, and perhaps more interestingly, it has played four teams with a top-40 offensive efficiency rating and it lost all four games. There's a reasonable chance they'll fall to 0-5 after Tuesday.
Winning this game won't be easy, but the Bearcats have shown they're vulnerable against elite offensive teams. Given the Red Raiders' offensive rebounding ability and penchant for scoring points, I'm going with Texas Tech in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas Tech -1.5
North Carolina 
at Wake Forest 
The Tar Heels have won five of seven conference games, but they're not playing as well in recent games. Specifically, North Carolina's offensive rating has taken a major hit. For the whole season, it ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency, but against league opponents, it ranks 13th in the ACC. The downward trend applies across the board, as the Tar Heels ranked well above the D-1 average in offensive turnovers and effective field goal percentage, but they rank 10th or worse in the ACC.
These substandard numbers will likely be an issue in this matchup because Wake Forest has played well defensively for most of the season. The Demon Deacons have the 34th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation and the fourth-best in the ACC during conference play, and they're particularly effective in a couple of key areas. Most importantly, they rank first in the conference in defensive turnovers and steal percentage, a relevant note in this matchup because the Tar Heels haven't been great with ball security recently, ranking 10th in the ACC in offensive turnovers and 12th in offensive steals.
At the other end of the court, we have a different story for Wake Forest. It seems like a poor offensive team when viewing its season-long stats, ranking 152nd in efficiency for the whole season, however, it's playing much better in recent games. The Demon Deacons have recorded the sixth-best offensive efficiency rating in the ACC during league play, and they rank fourth or better in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, and two-point field goal percentage, making this a persistent offensive attack any way you look at it. North Carolina usually plays well on defense, though it has stark splits depending on location. The Tar Heels have allowed 64 points per game through four home conference games but allowed over 72 points per game through three road games.
The Tar Heels have survived close calls in their last two road trips, both against opponents worse than Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons, meanwhile, have shown they're capable of beating a team like Michigan when everything's clicking. Given the location and the recent performances of each team, I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wake Forest -1
Wisconsin 
at UCLA 
The Badgers are on quite a run. They've won seven straight games, the nation's 10th-longest active win streak. The impressive part is that none of the games have been close. Sometimes when a team has this kind of streak, it consists of nailbiters or games that easily could've gone the other way. Not this one. Wisconsin's closest game was a two-point win against Ohio State, but the game was never truly in doubt. Wisconsin had a 95 percent chance of winning the game with under a minute remaining, per KenPom.
The other important trend regarding Wisconsin is that its level of play has held up since the New Year began. The Badgers have the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, accompanied by the 46th-best rating on defense. These areas have arguably improved against Big Ten competition, ranking second in the conference in offensive efficiency and fourth on defense.
In stark contrast, UCLA is trending in the opposite direction. The Bruins have the 12th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, but this has dropped dramatically, ranking ninth in the Big Ten against league competition. The picture looks even worse upon closer review. UCLA has the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the Big Ten and ranks 12th or worse in defensive rebounding and effective field goal percentage allowed.
The Bruins haven't been sharp on offense for most of the year and that hasn't changed in recent weeks. UCLA ranks 11th in offensive efficiency in the conference and has a worse standing in several areas such as effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and free-throw attempts. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has played a stout defense over the past few weeks, ranking fourth in the league in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and free-throw attempts allowed.
Winning road games is rarely easy, but the Badgers have shown they have a potent offensive attack that can travel. I'm taking the points with the Badgers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin +3.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Texas Tech -1.5
- Wake Forest -1
- Wisconsin +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
