This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
College Basketball Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Tuesday, February 11
As we've come to expect, Tuesday brings us another thrilling college hoops slate. This week, we have many contending teams traveling all over the country, among other tight matchups. Here are my predictions for three select games on Tuesday evening.
Purdue 
at Michigan
The Boilermakers have been on fire since the start of the New Year, winning 10 of 11 conference games. Their only stumble was a three-point home loss to Ohio State, a game in which they led by 13 points at halftime before the Buckeyes pulled off a highly improbable comeback.
I gladly picked Purdue when it hosted Michigan back on Jan. 24 for a couple of key reasons that remain true as we enter mid-February. The Boilermakers backed me up, jumping out to a 44-15 lead en route to a 91-64 final score.
First, as I noted the last time these two teams clashed, Michigan has a high-powered offense; however, it's restricted by one critical, potentially fatal flaw: giveaways. Despite sporting the 24th-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D- 1 teams, the Wolverines rank near the bottom in turnovers, 331st to be exact. This standing has only worsened since these two teams last faced each other, which is not an encouraging sign for the home team. Furthermore, Michigan ranks 350th in non-steal turnover percentage, meaning that they are suffering just as severely from unforced and forced errors. Since the conference season started, the Wolverines rank last among Big Ten teams in turnovers, second-worst in non-steal turnovers, and third-worst in steals allowed. This is the worst possible trait you could have when playing Purdue because the Boilermakers have elevated their defensive play throughout the season, particularly when it comes to takeaways. Purdue ranks second in defensive efficiency among Big Ten teams during league competition, but perhaps more importantly, it ranks first in turnover and steals percentages.
When playing in the other direction, Purdue has a clear upper hand. It is among the best-scoring teams in the nation, eighth in offensive efficiency, and it maintained the same elite level of play during the conference season, boasting the highest offensive rating among Big Ten teams. The Boilermakers are also making a league-leading 59 percent of two-point attempts and 35 percent of three-point attempts against Big Ten opponents, yielding the best effective field goal percentage in the conference. In contrast, Michigan's defense ranks seventh in efficiency within the conference and seldom generates takeaways, ranking second-worst in defensive turnover percentage. This lack of aggressiveness may get the job done more often than not, but according to KenPom, Purdue's offensive production is negatively affected by turnovers more than other important categories, such as rebounds or free throws, making it hard to stop them without forcing a mistake. Either way, Purdue ranks in the top 30 of the nation in two-point FG percentage, three-point FG percentage, and effective field goal percentage, making it incredibly difficult to stop them from any angle.
Considering that Purdue has superstar point guard Braden Smith leading the charge and that it has an opportunistic defense, I like the road team's odds of earning yet another win. I'm taking the Boilermakers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue +2
BYU 
at West Virginia
The Cougars are coming off a tough loss at Cincinnati, in which they were crushed on the glass and outrebounded 32-17. Thankfully, for the visitors, this should be less of an issue on Tuesday, as West Virginia is the worst rebounding team in the Big 12.
This matchup note is perhaps more critical for BYU's offense, which has performed among the best in the nation. The Cougars have the 17th-best offensive efficiency rating and rank in the top 10 of the nation in both effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage. They have also made 37 percent from beyond the arc against Big 12 opponents, the second-highest mark in the league. These shooting numbers are essential on any possession, and they become even more valuable for a team that can generate second-chance opportunities. BYU has the 76th-highest offensive rebounding percentage, and it's going against a defense that ranks 264th in rebounding, so the Cougars have a good shot of getting a second crack on many possessions. Despite the rebounding weakness, West Virginia has respectable defensive numbers in most other areas, so the performance on the glass could be the deciding factor.
When West Virginia has the ball on Tuesday, it will again see a significant mismatch on the boards. The Mountaineers rank 297th in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Cougars rank eighth in defensive rebounding, making it highly unlikely that the home team will see many second-chance opportunities. Looking at other areas, BYU again holds the upper hand. For the whole season, the Cougars' defense outranks the Mountaineers' offense in several key areas, including efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, two-point field goal percentage, and blocks.
Overall, this is a tight matchup, but I believe BYU's strength on the glass will make all the difference. According to KenPom data, BYU gets a big boost when playing against weak-rebounding teams, as the Cougars' production on both ends of the court noticeably correlates to its success on the glass. Considering this advantage and its potent offense, I like BYU's chances of earning a hard-fought road win. I'm taking the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU +2.5
San Diego State 
at San Jose State 
The key to this selection is the Aztecs' offense and its gargantuan advantage on the glass. San Diego State has noticeably improved in this area since the conference season started, recording the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage among Mountain West teams. This is terrible news for the home team, which is among the worst in the nation at securing defensive boards. San Jose State ranks 293rd among all D-1 teams in defensive rebounding percentage, and its numbers in this area have actually gotten worse. It is no surprise, then, to see that it ranks last in the conference during league competition. A big offensive rebounding advantage makes a big difference in almost any matchup, but it's even more significant for San Diego State. KenPom data suggests that offensive rebounds correlate to the Azetcs' offensive production nearly to the same extent as effective field goal percentage. Even outside of this one category, SDSU's offense still has a noticeable edge over SJSU's defense in efficiency, outranking the home team 117 to 220.
At the other end of the court, the Aztecs don't need much introduction. San Diego State has established itself as an elite defensive basketball program, and that has not changed. The Aztecs have the 11th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, and they rank in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed, two-point field goal percentage allowed, and block percentage. Additionally, they boast the highest turnover percentage in the Mountain West and are holding conference opponents to under 30 percent from beyond the arc, which is the best mark in the league. This is another critical matchup note because it theoretically cancels out San Jose State's best offensive skill. The Spartans have made 38 percent of three-point attempts against conference foes, the highest in the league. For context, they're barely making under 49 percent from inside the arc, 276th in the nation. The Spartans have another trait that benefits the opposition: their lack of aggression in the paint. SJSU has the second-lowest free-throw attempt rate in the conference, making it highly unlikely they take advantage of the Aztecs' only defensive flaw, their physicality. SDSU has the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among MWC teams, making this an area of concern in other matchups, but not so much in this one, given the home team's usual strategy and tendency for long-range jump shots.
Given San Diego State's massive rebounding advantage and elite defense, I like its odds to cover on the road. I'm laying the points with the Aztecs.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State -6
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Purdue +2
- BYU +2.5
- San Diego State -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
