This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate brings us a familiar offering, another round of Pac-12 After Dark. This time, however, marks a special occasion. In addition to all 12 teams taking the court, Thursday represents the final weeknight of the regular season for the Pac-12 as we know it. Here are my predictions for a trio of games.
Colorado 
at Oregon 
By most accounts, Colorado is on the cusp of making the Big Dance, so every outcome between now and Selection Sunday has the potential to be the deciding factor. A loss on Thursday might doom the Buffaloes, but at the same time, a win might propel them into the NCAA tournament.
Oregon, on the other hand, started off the conference season with a 5-0 record, but the Ducks have been gradually sliding backward ever since. They have won back-to-back games in just one instance since January 13, further underscoring the inconsistent nature of the team.
In comparing these teams side-by-side, the biggest advantage goes to Colorado's offense. The Buffaloes have recorded the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during conference play, and they're going against an Oregon defense that ranks fifth-worst in the same period. Efficiency aside, Colorado also has a clear edge in the paint. The Buffaloes have the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league, while the Ducks are eighth in defensive rebounding, likely leading to several put-back opportunities for the visiting team. Oregon is also allowing Pac-12 opponents to make 53 percent of shots inside the arc, the third-worst percentage allowed, while Colorado is making 52 percent of two-pointers, giving the Buffs another noticeable edge.
The other end of the court is seemingly a stalemate. Oregon has recorded the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the conference during league play, while Colorado has the fifth-best defensive efficiency rating, making this side an even match-up. That said, it's worth noting that Colorado's defense has an equal or better ranking compared to Oregon's offense in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, three-point field goal percentage, and two-point percentage.
Overall, Colorado has demonstrated itself to be the better team throughout a full season. I don't usually put much stock in motivational angles, but in this case, it's clear which team needs this game more. Oregon is a respectable team and might win, but I'm betting the consistently better team will emerge victorious when all is said and done. I'm taking the Buffaloes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado +3
Washington 
at Washington State 
Here we have two of the top offensive teams in the Pac-12 facing off. Washington State has recorded the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the league during conference play, with Washington not far behind with the fourth-highest offensive rating.
When the Cougars have the ball, they should see a lot of open looks, as the Huskies have not played great defensively for most of the season. Washington ranks 110th in the nation in efficiency and fourth-worst in the Pac-12 during league play, so this has been a common trend throughout the year.
When Washington has the ball, they face a stiffer challenge in the form of Washington State's defense, which has recorded the second-best defensive efficiency in the Pac-12 since the conference season tipped off. That said, Washington does several things well that should help them score enough points to keep the game interesting. The Huskies' offense ranks top-four in the conference in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and two-point field goal percentage, and they are making 35 percent of shots from behind the arc, giving us a well-rounded offensive team that can score several different ways.
We had a thrilling game the last time these two teams clashed just over a month ago in Seattle, with the Cougars winning in overtime, 90-87, after regulation ended tied at 83. Not much has changed since this last game, so I'm betting we'll see a similarly exciting game with each team trading baskets throughout the night. Washington pushes the pace as much as it can, logging the second-fastest tempo in the Pac-12, so the extra possessions will likely fuel the point total. For these reasons, I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 149.5
Arizona 
at UCLA 
By now, the Arizona Wildcats don't need much introduction. They have separated themselves as the best in the league, ranking first in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, both before and during the conference season. That said, there is one negative trend that has plagued the Wildcats throughout the season. Despite a common sports platitude that says 'defense travels,' Arizona has seemingly disproved the notion. The Wildcats are allowing 66 points per game at home, but then on the road the number balloons up to 82 points per game.
UCLA, meanwhile, was once a proud defensive team, but it's been getting shredded over the past two weeks. The Bruins have allowed at least 70 points in three of their last four games, including 94 points to Washington a week ago. When looking deeper into the numbers, the Bruins don't do anything particularly well on defense. They rank third in the league in turnover percentage, their best attribute, but then they rank ninth in defense rebounding percentage, 10th in free-throw attempt rate, and ninth in three-point field goal percentage allowed, all areas in which Arizona excels.
The Bruins put up a small fight when they traveled to Tucson on January 20, although Arizona inevitably made its charge in the second half and won 77-71. It's tough to bet against Arizona in this spot, so given the nature of each team, I prefer the odds of seeing a higher score. Another important note is that Arizona pushes the pace as much as any team in the nation. The Wildcats are playing at the 15th-fastest tempo among all D1 teams, so they are intent on turning every game into a track meet. I'm going with the over in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 147
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Colorado +3
- Washington at Washington State - Over 149.5
- Arizona at UCLA - Over 147
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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